Use excel to backtest atrading strategy using an atr stop-loss

Use excel to backtest atrading strategy using an atr stop-lossUse Excel to Backtest a Trading Strategy using an ATR Stop-loss

By Tradinformed on February 17, 2013

This post continues the series of video articles about how to use Microsoft Excel to backtest trading strategies. In this post I show how to calculate a stop-loss using the ATR and then how to backtest the trading strategy.

The Average True Range

Developed by J. Welles Wilder the ATR is very popular with traders. On its own, the ATR can be used to measure market volatility and market range. It is also frequently used in other technical indicators such as the SuperTrend indicator and the ADX.

One of the most popular uses for the ATR was developed by Chuck LeBeau and is referred to as the Chandelier Exit. The chandelier exit sets the stop-loss distance as a multiple of the ATR. The ATR reacts to market conditions so when things are calm, the stop-loss will be relatively close and when things are volatile, the stop-loss will be further away.

Optimising asupertrend trading strategy expert advisor

Optimising asupertrend trading strategy expert advisorOptimising a SuperTrend Trading Strategy Expert Advisor

By Tradinformed on January 10, 2014

This article looks at how an Expert Advisor (EA) can be optimized. The article follows on directly from How to Create an Expert Advisor for a SuperTrend Trading Strategy. In the previous article I showed how to build the EA using the MQL4 programming language. You can download a copy of the EA by signing up to my mailing list via the Subscribe page.

Trading Strategy

The trading strategy that I am using in this article is based on the SuperTrend technical indicator . The rules of the trading strategy are set out in the previous article about how to create the expert advisor .

Initial Results

I first backtested this trading strategy in my article Backtesting a SuperTrend Trading Strategy Using Excel. In this section I am going to compare my previous results with the results from the MT4 backtest.

Following on from the previous article we now have a complete EA. Before we can do anything else we need to make sure that the file is saved in the correct directory (programsMetaTraderexperts) and then click Compile in MetaEditor. If the file has been written correctly there should be no error messages.

We can now switch to the MT4 terminal and open the Strategy Tester . Select our EA from the drop down list. Select the EUR/USD pair and the 1 hour timeframe. Then we are going to select Open Prices Only and click Start . I am using the date range 2004.03.15 2013.11.29 so that I can compare the results to my previous backtest using Excel. My initial inputs are:

PercentagePerTrade 1

A long-term stock index trading strategy

A long-term stock index trading strategyA Long-Term Stock Index Trading Strategy

By Tradinformed on October 27, 2014

In this article I describe a long-term stock index trading strategy. I then show how the strategy performed on the SP 500 index.

The strategy was inspired by the Zig-Zag indicator and is based on the closing daily price.

The Zig-Zag Indicator

The Zig-Zag indicator looks great on a chart. In the image here it picks out the highs and lows as the SP500 advances in 2009-2013.

It can be calibrated to make it more or less sensitive. If the indicator is set to 10%, it will only change when the price has moved at least 10% in the opposite direction to the existing trend.

However, for most traders the Zig-Zag indicator is not very useful. This is because it can only be calculated by looking at past data. Each turning point can only be shown once the underlying market has retraced by the percentage deviation. The indicator is useful for people looking at market wave theories but it is not possible to trade the moves shown on the image above.

The Stock Index Trading Stratey

I wanted to look at what an actual trading strategy would look like if it used the same principles as the Zig-Zag indicator. This trading strategy should be long-term and it should ignore small moves in the opposite direction.

Trading Strategy Rules

If Long and the closing price retraces more than a variable percentage, then close the Long position and open a Short position.

If Short and the closing price retraces more than a variable percentage, then close the Short position and open a Long position.

Trading Strategy Results

Excel Backtest Model

I analysed the results of the strategy using my Long-Short Backtest Model. If you are interested in using Excel to backtest trading strategies you can read more about it in my article Why Use Excel to Backtest Trading Strategies .

The strategy was tested on the SP 500 index from 2000-2014. The strategy started off with $100,000 of capital and used no leverage. The strategy was tested using 10% deviation.

Backtesting asupertrend trading strategy using excel

Backtesting asupertrend trading strategy using excelBacktesting a SuperTrend Trading Strategy Using Excel

By Tradinformed on December 5, 2013

As the name suggests, the SuperTrend technical indicator helps to identify market trends. This article introduces a SuperTrend trading strategy and shows how the strategy can be backtested using Excel.

Trading Strategy

When either Profit Target or Stop-Loss is hit

When trade is opened in the oppposite direction

When closing price crosses from above to below 25 EMA

Close Short Trade

When either Profit Target or Stop-Loss is hit

When trade is opened in the oppposite direction

When closing price crosses from below to above 25 EMA

The video explains the trading strategy and looks at the spreadsheets used for the backtest. It is also goes through the results and carries out a step-through analysis.

Excel Formulas

These formulas are based on a version of the spreadsheet in my Ebook course, How to Backtest a Trading Strategy Using Excel. The cell references will depend on which data you are using in which columns. However, once you understand the trading strategy that is being tested it should be easy to adapt the formulas to your own spreadsheet or backtesting system.

Trade Long Y203 =IF(AND(F203>S203,F202<S202,F203>H203),long, IF(AND(F203>H203,F202<H202,F203>S203),long,))

Long Close Below EMA AC203 =IF(AND(F203<I203,F202>I202,AI203=$AI$2,AB203=0,AA203=0,Z203=0),ema close,)

Long EMA Close AN203 =IF(AC203=EMA close,(F203-AD203)/(AE203-AD203)*AG203,)

Trade Short AO203 =IF(AND(F203<S203,F202>S202,F203<H203),short, IF(AND(F203<H203,F202>H202,F203<S203),short,))

Short Close Below EMA AS203 =IF(AND(F203>I203,F202<I202,AY203=$AY$2,AQ203=0,AR203=0,$AS$2=1,AP203=0),EMA close,)

Short EMA Close BD203 =IF(AS203=EMA close,(AT203-F203)/(AT203-AU203)*AW203,)

The trading strategy was backtested on the EUR/USD forex pair on the 1-hour timeframe. The backtest was carried out over three periods of 20,000 1-hour periods (3 years, 3 months).

I then combined these backtests and the results are shown in the table below.

A simple,profitable heikin-ashi trading system

A simple,profitable heikin-ashi trading systemA Simple, Profitable Heikin-Ashi Trading System

By Tradinformed on October 14, 2014

Heikin-Ashi candlesticks are a slightly different way of viewing the markets. In this article I will show how they can be used as part of a profitable trading strategy.

Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks

The image below shows the DJIA with normal candlesticks.

This next image below shows the DJIA over the same period using Heikin-Ashi candlesticks.

The two images are quite similar but note how the trends are clearer on the Heikin-Ashi chart. This is because the candles are calculated based partly on the average price and the price of the preceding candle. The effect of this is to smooth the candles and gloss over minor moves in the opposite direction to the main trend.

The advantage of Heikin-Ashi candlesticks is that they make the trend clearer and help nervous traders (which is all of us sometimes!) remain with the dominant trend. However, it is important to remember that when the market does change direction Heikin-Ashi candles react more slowly.

Heikin-Ashi Trading Strategy

The strategy I tested was based on the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe. The historic data was from 2000 2014.

The strategy I backtested is:

Trade Long when Heikin-Ashi turns positive and MACD is below 0

Trade Short when Heikin-Ashi turns negative and MACD is above 0

Close Long when Heikin-Ashi turns negative

Close Short when Heikin-Ashi turns positive

I used a stop-loss and profit target of the ATR * 10.

I did a second backtest which included a trailing stop of the ATR * 1.

Additionally, I only took trades that occurred during the European trading session. This includes the US morning session.

Finally, I wanted to take account of the summer slowdown in the financial markets an so excluded the months of July and August from my analysis.

Excel Backtest Model

I backtested the trading strategy using my Long-Short Excel Backtest Model. This is a spreadsheet that can be used to test all sorts of trading and investment strategies. Excel is a great tool to use for backtesting because it is very accessible and allows testing of quite complex strategies. On this site I have given a number of examples of different trading strategies that I have tested using this model. You can click on the link to the backtest model if you would like to purchase this.

The results of the first backtest were:

The supertrend trading strategy getting to the root of trend following

The supertrend trading strategy getting to the root of trend followingThe SuperTrend Trading Strategy: Getting To The Root of Trend Following

The root of any good trend following system is always the same: identify the direction a market is trending and ride that trend.

Anyone who has traded a trend following system already knows that this concept can be much more difficult than it appears. Trending markets are filled with reversals, pullbacks, and false breakouts. Periods where markets arent trending will often leave traders wondering whether their indicators are still working.

At the root of any good trend following strategy is the ability to identify the direction of a trend. That is exactly where the SuperTrend indicator excels.

Since identifying the trend direction is the root of a good trend following system, lets take a look at a strategy that is based on identifying the trend.

Mark from Tradinformed recently published backtesting results of a basic Forex system that attempts to implement trend following in its purest form. The system uses the SuperTrend indicator combined with the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) to identify trends on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Here are the basic entry and exit rules for the SuperTrend Trading Strategy as Mark defined them:

Enter Long Position

When closing price is above 200 SMA and crosses from below to above SuperTrend

Or when closing price is above SuperTrend and crosses from below to above 200 SMA

Enter Short Position

When closing price is below 200 SMA and crosses from above to below SuperTrend

Or when closing price is below SuperTrend and crosses from above to below 200 SMA

Exit Long Position

When either Profit Target or Stop-Loss is hit

When trade is opened in the oppposite direction

When closing price crosses from above to below 25 EMA

Exit Short Position

When either Profit Target or Stop-Loss is hit

When trade is opened in the oppposite direction

When closing price crosses from below to above 25 EMA

Mark backtested this strategy over three separate 20,000 periods of 1-hour bars. He used a 5 ATR profit target and a 1 ATR stop loss.

The backtests started with an account value of $100,000 and ended with a value of over $1.3 million after a period of almost ten years. During that time, the system registered a profit factor of 1.15 with a winning percentage of 29% and a maximum drawdown of 38%.

Obviously, we would like to see a higher profit factor and winning percentage with a much lower maximum drawdown. The interesting thing about this SuperTrend strategy is that there is a lot of room to improve it. Because the strategy is so simple, there are dozens of options to add to it or tweak it in order to get different returns.

Simply adjusting the profit factor or stoploss could have a major impact on the returns. We could also try adding some sort of confirmation indicator to make the strategy more selective.

3profitable ichimoku trading strategies

3profitable ichimoku trading strategies3 Profitable Ichimoku Trading Strategies

By Tradinformed on December 22, 2014

In this article I show three strategies using the Ichimoku trading system. I then show the results of how these trading strategies perform on the EUR/USD forex pair.

I carried out these analyses to find out how good the Ichimoku system is at identifying trends. The trading strategies are simple and do not require any judgement or special analysis.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Ichimoku is a trading system that originated in Japan. Developed by journalist Goichi Hosoda, it is designed to help traders identify and trade with the dominant trend. The lines look quite complicated on the chart but they can be easily used as part of an automated trading strategy.

Conversion and Base Line

The red line is the Conversion Line (tenkan sen) and is the quickest to react. The blue line is the Base Line (kijun sen). The Base Line is slower and is useful for confirmation.

Ichimoku Cloud

The most unusual thing about the Ichimoku is the cloud. The cloud is a slow moving area on the chart that helps to identify the trend and provides support and resistance.

The cloud is made up of two lines: Senkou A and Senkou B. Senkou A is the fastest and makes the inner edge of the cloud. Senkou B is slower and makes the outer edge.

Chikou Span

The Chikou Span is the green line. It is made by plotting the closing price 26 periods back.

The Ichimoku Trading Strategies

All three trading strategies are either long or short. Each trading strategy starts with capital of $100,000. The rules of the strategies are:

Strategy 1: Trade long when the Conversion Line crosses above the Base Line. Trade short when the Conversion Line crosses below the Base Line.

Strategy 2: Trade Long when the Closing Price crosses above the Base Line. Trade Short when the Closing Price crosses below the Base Line.

Strategy 3: Trade Long when the Closing Price crosses above the Senkou Span B line (slow cloud line). Trade Short when the Closing Price crosses below the Senkou Span B line.

The backtests have been carried out using Excel. The calculations for the Ichimoku are contained in my eBook: 21 More Technical Indicators. The eBook explains how the lines are calculated and contains a free Excel spreadsheet with all the formulas.

If you are interested in using Excel to backtest trading strategies you could check out my eBook course: How to Backtest a Trading Strategy Using Excel. If you are interested in the spreadsheet used in this analysis see the page on Excel Spreadsheets .

The data used for the backtest is the EUR/USD forex pair on the daily timeframe. The data is tested from May 1992 to December 2014.

The results of the three trading strategies are:

Backtesting aeur

Backtesting aeurBacktesting a EUR/USD Trading Strategy Using an ATR Trailing Stop

By Tradinformed on August 15, 2014

In this article I will show the results of my backtest of a EUR/USD trading strategy. What is interesting about this test is that I used a a random entry signal. I also used a trailing stop based on the ATR to close the positions.

The results showing that a random entry trading strategy can be profitable using a trailing stop.

Market and Timeframe

I am using my favourite forex pair, the EUR/USD, and trading it on the 4 hour timeframe. Each run of the analysis is over 10,000 4 hour periods. The study runs from May 2006 to October 2012.

Entry Signal

Good trading entries are generally considered to be an important part of trading. I strongly agree with this however, different types of entries work well in different types of markets. It is not possible to tell what the market is going to do, therefore the very best entries can often result in unprofitable trades.

In this test I have used a random number generator to trigger the trade entries. The great thing about random entry is that we can test it again and again on the same historic data. Because it is random entry the results do vary quite considerably. However, by repeating the test many times, we obtain a good level of consistency.

This method of repeating an analysis is often referred to as a Monte Carlo method after the famous casino. I have previously recorded a YouTube video on using Excel to create a Monte Carlo simulator .

Exit Signal

Each trade is exited using a trailing stop. Trailing stops tend to be associated with trend following type strategies. I do not use a profit target.

The trailing stop is calculated based on the Average True Range (ATR). The ATR is a measure of the recent volatility of the market. I then multiply the ATR by a factor to calculate the trailing stop distance. This method of calculating the stop-loss is often called the Chandelier Exit and was developed and popularised by Chuck LeBeau and Dr. Alexander Alder. In my analysis I am using a 20 period ATR.

As an example: For a long trade with an entry point is 1.3500, an ATR of 45 pips and a multiplier of 2. The stop-loss will be 1.3500 (0.0045 * 2) = 1.3410. As the trading position moves into profit the trailing stop will move with it to lock in the profit.

Simulations

For each ATR factor I have run the analysis 100 times.

For these results I have compared three different metrics. Firstly, average profit generated over the tests. Secondly the Profit Factor, which is the absolute value of the total value of the winning trades divided by the total value of the losing trades. Finally I have calculated the percentage of tests that were profitable.

How to trade3line break charts profitably

How to trade3line break charts profitablyHow to Trade 3 Line Break Charts Profitably

3 Line Break Charts are a fascinating type of charting system that originated in Japan. They are particularly useful for identifying the current trend and also trend reversals.

In this article I explain what 3 line break charts are, give ideas for trading them and show the backtested results of a profitable trading strategy.

What are 3 Line Break Charts?

The following chart shows the Dow Jones on the daily timeframe using 3 line break charts.

A clue to understanding these charts is in the name, they are a type of breakout chart. They are distinctive because they only show significant price moves. Significant price moves occur when the closing price is higher or lower than the preceding bars.

3 line break charts are based solely on the closing price and do not display any intraday movements.

This is based on the idea that the closing price is the most important price of the day. In this system each bar is referred to as a line.

If you look closely at the previous chart you can see that each line follows on directly from the previous line.

A short reversal can only occur when the market has closed below the low of the previous 3 lines. A long reversal can only occur when the market has closed above the high of the previous 3 lines. In the example below a short reversal line breaks below the preceding 3 lines.

A market is trending when there have been 3 consecutive lines in the same direction.

Why use 3 Line Break Charts?

If we compare the previous Dow Jones 3 line break chart with the standard candlestick chart it looks quite different.

3 line breaks are great at defining the current market trend. A new line is always significant because we have a new high or low. This means that the chart is less cluttered. There is more information on the candlestick chart but this can sometimes be distracting.

Trading with 3 Line Break Charts

The simplest way to trade using 3 line break charts, is to wait until the market has made at least 3 lines in the same direction. Then wait until a reversal line has formed and enter in the direction of the reversal. This is the start of a new potential trend and we can get in nice and early.

An alternative approach is to watch for reversal lines and then enter after the market has made at least 3 consecutive lines following a reversal.

It is easy to combine 3 line break charts with other technical indicators. For example a moving average can be used to define the trend. Then a 3 line break can be used to enter in the direction of the trend.

Counter trend traders can combine 3 line break charts with momentum indicators to identify good reversal opportunities. For example the stochastic oscillator can be used to identify overbought and oversold areas.

Another common way to use 3 line break charts is to combine them with Japanese candlestick patterns. Reversal candles and patterns such as dojis, bullish engulfing patterns and tweezer bottoms. The 3 line break charts can be used to identify the dominant trend and then the candlesticks are used to time trade entries.

A Profitable 3 Line Break Trading Strategy

I was interested in testing how profitable a simple 3 line break chart strategy was on historic price data. So I set up a backtest using a Tradinformed Excel spreadsheet. These spreadsheets are great for anyone with some basic Excel skills to set up and test their own trading strategies.

The test was very simple. It is intended to find out whether 3 line break charts can be a useful part of a trading strategy.

The test was carried out on the EUR/USD forex pair on the 4 hour timeframe between December 2009 and June 2015.

Strategy Rules

Enter trade on a new reversal line.

Test the strategy using an optional 200 period EMA as a filter. Only trade long when the price is above the 200 EMA and only trade short below.

In this backtest I have not tested the effect of stop-losses, trailing stops or profit targets. I have also not filtered trade entries by time of day. The results are shown in pips.

How to backtest trading strategies with excel-best binary option signals service

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