The macd3forex trading system is very clear and mechanical

The macd3forex trading system is very clear and mechanicalCheckout some member feedback:

“After trading stocks and options for over 20 years and forex for 5 years, in my 5 years, my last year in forex was the best due to the MACD 3 system. I only trade forex now for a living.”

Being part of this community was the best thing I ever did to learn to be a good trader. I love tuning into the daily webinar every day to reinforce what I have learned and to make my job as a trader less lonely as this community has become a part of my daily life.

You won’t be disappointed. A year spent in this room and learning the macd3 system has been the best year of my 5 year career trading forex.”

Jeffrey shear

*Also please keep in mind that these testimonials are not indicative of future performance or success and results may vary from person to person

Our service was mentioned in an article in the June 2010 Issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.

It was written by Leslie Van Winkle titled How to Succeed at Forex Trading.

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7winning strategies trading forex pdf

7winning strategies trading forex pdf7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex - PDF

7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex - PDF

By. Grace Cheng

Published. March 2007

Many traders go around searching for that one perfect trading strategy that works all the time in the global FOREX (foreign exchange/currency) market. Frequently, they will complain that a strategy doesn't work. Few people understand that successful trading of the FOREX market entails the application of the right strategy for the right market condition.

7 Winning Strategies For Trading Forex covers:

- Why people should be paying attention to the FOREX market, which is the world's largest and most liquid financial market

- How understanding the structure of this market can be beneficial to the independent trader

- How to overcome the odds and become a successful trader

- How you can select high-probability trades with good entries and exits.

Grace Cheng highlights seven trading strategies, each of which is to be applied in a unique way and is designed for differing market conditions. She shows how traders can use the various market conditions to their advantage by tailoring the strategy to suit each one.

This revealing book also sheds light on how the FOREX market works, how you can incorporate sentiment analysis into your trading, and how trading in the direction of institutional activity can give you a competitive edge in the trading arena.

This invaluable book is ideal for new and current traders wanting to improve their trading performance.

Filled with practical advice, this book is a must-read for traders who want to know exactly how they can make money in the FOREX market.

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Top4day trading secrets

Top4day trading secretsTop 4 Day Trading Secrets

by Chart Shark

There are so many secrets to day trading online, its hard to keep track of them all. Lucky for you, Ive honed these down into the top 4 day trading secrets .

Secret #4 What You Do When the Market is Closed Matters Most

Sure, its great to be able to interpret data at lightning speeds, spot valid trades within seconds, and execute them flawlessly, but without proper preparation, you will never find those opportunities. Proper preparation includes spending up to an hour before the market opens sifting through market scanners, reading news feeds, and watching pre-market trading. It also includes some time after the market closes evaluating your trading for the day and keeping an eye on the after-market action. Without this you will fail.

Secret #3 Less is More

Youre not going to believe me on this one until you try it all for yourself, but the less help you use, the more money you will make. Im talking about the monitors, and the indicators, and the distractions like chat rooms where you think youre getting some super trading tips. You will eventually find that you can trade using just one monitor, maybe even a laptop from the patio. You will eventually realize that all indicators are just interpreting the same basic information and youll find the ones that work best for your trading style. And you will eventually realize that your trading style is unlike anyone elses and trying to follow chat room traders is a futile effort.

Secret #2 The Tape is Your Best Friend

Some people are good enough that they can trade using the tape (or time/sales) window alone. I am not that good, however, it is my go-to source of information about a stock. It gives you every trade in real time, and every indicator is merely a step or two away from this direct line of information. Even my trusty charts arent so clear as the picture painted by the tape. Im not great at reading the tape, but give me a stock chart and its time/sales and I am a happy trader.

#1 Day Trading Secret There are no Day Trading Secrets

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Top ten reasons not to invest in the iraqi dinar

Top ten reasons not to invest in the iraqi dinarTop Ten Reasons Not to Invest In The Iraqi Dinar

The Iraqi dinar (IQD) revaluation rumor has been around for a number of years and continues to attract a substantial number of believers. Scores of people have purchased Iraqi dinars from fast-talking promoters and online dinar currency dealers based on the firm belief that they will make windfall profits – reportedly as much as 1,000 times their original “investment” – when the currency is revalued.

This belief in a dinar revaluation is based primarily on the fact that Iraq has the world’s second-largest oil reserves. Proponents of dinar revaluation also point to the surge in value after the first Gulf War of the Kuwaiti dinar, which is now one of the world’s most expensive currencies. (Check out Investopedia's primer on the Forex Market .)

The Iraqi dinar was trading in July 2014 at a rate of about 1,200 per United States dollar, so a 1,000-fold revaluation would see the exchange rate at 1.2 per U. S. dollar. So what are the odds of that revaluation actually happening? Probably about the same as winning the Powerball lottery, which is to say virtually nil. Before you plunk down your hard-earned dollars for the currency equivalent of moose pasture, here are our top 10 reasons why you should not invest in the Iraqi dinar.

Iraq is falling apart . In mid-2014, Iraq was facing its most severe crisis in years, as a swift offensive by Sunni Muslim militants threatened to break up the country. As of July 2014, these militants control much of northern Iraq, while Kurdish forces have seized Kirkuk and nearby oilfields; this has left the Iraqi government only in control of the capital Baghdad and the south. When the country’s very survival is at stake, currency revaluation is very unlikely to be on the agenda.

The economy is struggling . The Iraq economy had been on the upswing until the assault by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2014 threatened to set it back by years. In 2012, Iraq became the second-biggest oil producer in OPEC; in spring 2014, oil production in the nation reached a 35-year high of 3.2 million barrels per day. While most of Iraq’s oil production and export facilities are in the south, and thus quite distant from the conflict between ISIS and Iraqi forces, it also has significant resources in areas controlled by ISIS and Kurdish forces, which may be impossible to develop. With the economy already struggling, the last thing it needs is the challenge posed by a massive revaluation.

Iraqi dinars do not trade on global forex markets . The value of the dinar is currently set through an auction process by the Central Bank of Iraq. As the dinar does not trade on global forex markets, its value is set by government edict rather than by supply and demand as it is for freely traded currencies. This also means that so-called dinar dealers can charge any rate they desire to unsuspecting investors.

Iraqi dinars can be redeemed only in Iraq . Since Iraqi dinars do not trade on global forex markets, they cannot be redeemed anywhere except in Iraq.

Several U. S. states have warned about Iraqi dinar scams . A number of U. S. states have been warning their residents for a few years now about scams involving the Iraqi dinar.

Dinar currency brokers may not be legitimate . The Washington State Department of Financial Institutions (DFI), in a warning about potential dinar scams, notes that a number of online dealers who offer Iraqi dinars register with the U. S. Treasury as a Money Services Business (MSB) to make their scam seem legitimate. However, the MSB registration only requires a form to be filled out and does not reflect any currency trading experience or any special qualifications on the part of the dealer. It also warns that most of these websites are operating illegally in Washington State, without a currency exchange or money transmission license issued by the DFI.

Great deal of currency already in circulation . At a rate of about 1200 Iraqi dinars to one U. S. dollar, it is apparent that there is a great deal of Iraqi currency already in circulation. While it is possible that the Central Bank of Iraq may one day lop off three zeros to create a new currency – as has been done over the decades by a number of nations – there is a world of difference between such a redenomination (which does not change the fundamental value of a currency) and a revaluation (which does).

Inflation differentials . Iraq’s inflation rate has decreased from an annual rate of 4% in early 2014 to just above 2% by mid-year. This may not seem like an unduly high rate, but is higher than the inflation rate in most advanced economies that were more concerned with the prospect of deflation than inflation in the period before 2014. The Iraqi economy could also face higher inflation if the country is wracked by civil war. An adverse inflation differential vis-a-vis the U. S. dollar is scarcely a recipe for currency revaluation.

Devaluation more likely than revaluation . As a result of some of the above factors, it is likely that devaluation rather than revaluation may be the most likely outcome for the Iraqi dinar in the years ahead.

If it’s such a great idea, why the high-pressure sales tactics? The Oklahoma Securities Commission warns that high-pressure sales tactics are being used to flog Iraqi dinars, including claims that buying dinars is a time-sensitive investment that requires immediate action. Such boiler-room tactics seldom if ever work out well for the investor.

The Bottom Line

There are simply too many warning signs to warrant investing in this currency. When it comes to the Iraqi dinar, caveat emptor or buyer beware should be the watchword.

Online Top ten reasons not to invest in the iraqi dinar

Online trading how it works top10binary options

Online trading how it works top10binary optionsOnline trading how it works Top 10 Binary Options coriel. co. uk

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lets first year. Your. The importance of up this tutorial gives you to regular market. Works. including. The in other.

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Most profitable options strategy

Most profitable options strategyMost Profitable Options Strategy

With over 40 different variations on techniques to trade options, it is pretty hard to decide which is the most profitable options strategy. Most traders, be they day traders or option traders, try to develop a trading plan that will at minimum beat the broader stock market, and there are hundreds of opinions about which is the best approach. Option trading offers huge profit potential, and so is very attractive, but at the same time, many traders have lost very heavily when they launch into the world of options . There are plenty of forum posts that state how dangerous options trading can be, and how bad it is to trade derivatives. Sometimes it seems that the only people making any kind of profit are those that sell options trading advisory services via a newsletter or website, and even their results are often disappointing. So, this then leads to two questions: is options trading really profitable, and secondly, if so, what is the most profitable options strategy?

Is Options Trading Profitable?

The truth? Yes, it can be. The leverage potential provided by options, which gives you the right to control large blocks of stock, is significantly greater than the potential of simple stock trading. If you are able to harness the power of this leverage, you can make huge amounts of profit from fairly small moves in the underlying stock price. With other strategies, you can make money if the stock goes down, and you can use yet another strategy to make money in a stagnant market. The problem with some (but not all) of the strategies is that you can lose a lot of money very quickly. In fact, if you make the wrong play, you can lose 100% of your investment within a couple of hours!

What is the Most Profitable Options Strategy?

Most options traders are introduced to the very simple to understand, and easy to implement, concept of buying calls (for an ascending market) or buying puts (for a descending market). As well as being simple to understand and apply, these two strategies have the potential to make fierce profit gains. It is possible to make returns of 100% or better within a couple of days or even hours of making the trade. So, for sheer magnitude of profit, this can be the most profitable strategy. However, it is also highly possible to lose 100% of your investment just as quickly! Even though websites and advisory services who market this technique will show these kind of spectacular results occasionally, it is more often true that they usually gain less than 50% per trade, and they have a large percentage of trades that go wrong! If you have one trade that loses 100%, you need at least five trades making 20% or more in order to recoup your investment. Very few traders are able to make these kinds of winners on a regular basis. The reason is that in order to be successful at this strategy, you need to have excellent technical analysis skills so that you can accurately predict a market move and the timing of the move. It is possible, but it requires years of experience and a raft of technical analysis tools that you can understand and use effectively.

Selling Puts and Credit Spreads

Two recent academic studies* have shown that the most consistently profitable strategies are selling puts or selling credit spreads. Although the absolute magnitude of profit is less than that from buying calls and puts, the profit is regular and consistent, in the range of 7-12% per month on the whole portfolio. The strategies are reasonably simple, requiring a very basic level of technical analysis, and the percentage of winners is much higher (80% or more, with the right trading plan). Overall, the most profitable options strategy is that of selling puts . It is a little limited, in that it works best in an upward market, although even selling ITM puts for very long term contracts (6 months out or more) can make excellent returns because of the effect of time decay, whichever way the market turns. Selling credit spreads takes advantage of both upward and downward trends in the market, and the margin requirements are smaller, making it easier for the smaller investor to start. Even Iron Condors (basically two opposite standing credit spreads) make good returns in a stagnant market.

In Conclusion..

When looking for the most profitable options strategy, do not look at the magnitude of profit. Rather, look at factors such as risk of loss, the technical analysis requirements, and the potential to develop a safe, reliable trading plan that generates regular monthly or even weekly income. and then leave it to the power of compounding!

*Academic References:


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How to create abusiness plan for atraining center

How to create abusiness plan for atraining centerThings You'll Need

Desktop publishing software

Describe your training center business. List the types of training you intend to provide and the industries or careers you expect to support. Describe the types of sessions you plan to offer, such as instructor-led classes, seminars or workshops. State what types of unique alternatives you propose to provide, such as self-paced learning and practice laboratories.

Define your marketing strategy. Describe how you intend to sell your services to prospective students. Outline your plans for online communications such as websites, email and other social media technology usage. Present options for print media marketing too. Describe any promotional offers you plan to entice potential students and their friends and family.

Describe your staffing strategy. List the number of people and roles required to operate your training center. Highlight basic guidelines for interviewing, hiring and managing staff performance related to your training industry. Include salary requirements, special skills required and any licensing or certification requirements that need to be met. Cite any local, state or federal regulations that pertain to your proposed faculty.

Define your operational guidelines. Show the company structure and how you intend to organize your management team. Provide a sample curriculum and calendar of proposed courses. Define the technology requirements, insurance coverage and other information specific to your training industry. Describe the facility atmosphere.

Outline your financial plans. Project start costs and expenses. Estimate revenue anticipated for the first few months. Appraise the amount of start up capital you require. Base your projections on similar operations in your area. Be realistic.

Summarize your ideas. Creating comprehensive business plans that work means you can successfully obtaining the financing to open and operate a profitable training center.

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Understanding option greeks and dividends

Understanding option greeks and dividendsUnderstanding Option Greeks and Dividends

In the options marketplace, the “Greeks” have zero to do with classic philosophers or toga parties (unless you’re trading from the fraternity house). For option traders, the Greeks are a series of handy variables that help explain the various factors driving movement in options prices (also known as “premiums”).

Many options traders mistakenly assume that price movement in the underlying stock or security is the only factor driving changes in the option’s price. In fact, it’s very possible to watch the option contract move up or down in value, while the underlying price stays still.

Mathematically speaking, the Greeks are all derived from an options pricing model. The most well known is Black-Scholes, but many variations are used. For equity options, it is most common to use some form of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model, which accounts for the possible early exercise of American-style options.

Each Greek isolates a variable that can drive options price movement, providing insight on how the option’s premium will be affected if that variable changes. This article will address each of the major Greeks: delta. gamma. theta. vega and rho. as well as dividends. We’ll explore each of these in terms of their importance, explaining how to interpret and use each of them in your trading decisions.

Getting a firm grasp on your Greeks will help you judge what option is the best to trade, based on your outlook for the underlying. If you don’t contend with the Greeks, though, you could be flying into your next option trade blind. Why not learn to speak a little Greek instead?

Start Trading Options for $4.95 + 65? per Contract

Delta and gamma: speed and acceleration

One of the biggest mistakes new options traders make is buying a call option in order to try and pick a winner. After all, buying calls maps to the pattern you’re used to following as an equity trader: buy low, sell high, in that order.

Options are trickier. Sometimes the underlying stock moves in the expected direction, but the option doesn’t, or even vice versa. Options with different strikes move differently when the underlying price moves up and down, and also as the option approaches expiration. Is there any mathematical way to estimate how much your option might move as the underlying moves?

The answer is delta – it provides part of the reason for how and why an option’s price moves the way it does. There are many different definitions of delta, but the explanation that follows is the primary one.

Delta is the amount a theoretical option’s price will change for a corresponding one-unit (point/dollar) change in the price of the underlying security – assuming, of course, all other variables are unchanged.

Keep in mind delta is determined by using a pricing model, hence the term “theoretical” in the definition above. So although this is how the marketplace expects the option’s price to change, there is no guarantee that this forecast will be correct. The same holds true for any other Greek parameter described below.

Imagine a stock is at $40 and we’re looking at the two-month, at-the-money (ATM) call with a strike price of 40 and a current price of $3. If the stock goes from $40 to $41 right now, so the only thing that changes is the stock’s price, how much would you expect the call option’s price to move?

The call price should increase by about 50 cents, to $3.50. How do you know? One way would be to look up the option’s delta, +0.50, which you can find in the Options Chains under the Quotes + Research tab.

Using the definition above, if the stock goes up $1, the call price should go up roughly by the amount of delta. Hence, it should go from $3.00 to about $3.50. This also works in reverse. If the stock went down by $1 instead, the call option should go down approximately by the amount of the delta, 0.50 or 50 cents, to a price of $2.50.

When looking up delta at TradeKing, you will notice that calls have a positive delta. One way to explain this is call prices tend to increase as the underlying increases. You may have also noticed that put deltas are negative. This is for a similar reason; puts typically increase in value as the stock decreases. These are the delta signs you’ll get when buying these options. However, when selling these options, delta signs reverse. Short call options will have a negative delta; short put options will have a positive delta.

Delta is dynamic

What if the stock moves from $41 to $42? Would the call option move another 50 cents, or more or less?

The answer is more than 50 cents. That’s because delta is dynamic: how close or how far away the stock is from the strike price determines how the option will react to stock price movement. Since movement from $41 to $42 would mean the call option was becoming more in-the-money (ITM), the delta will increase to reflect that. In this case, we estimate the delta to be about 0.60 or 60. Using the increased delta to calculate, the new price of the call option should be about $4.10 ($3.50 + $0.60).

At-the-money (ATM) call options, like our first example, usually have a delta around 0.50 or 50. (By the way, traders will often remove the decimal and just say “the delta is fifty”.) In-the-Money (ITM) call options usually have deltas between 0.50 and 1.00 (or 50 and 100), and out-of-the-money (OTM) call options usually have deltas between 0.50 and 0 (or 50 and 0), obviously never going below zero.

At-the-money put options have a delta around -0.50 or -50. Deltas of ITM puts typically range from -0.50 to -1.00 (-50 to -100). Put options that are OTM often have a delta ranging from 0 to -0.50 (0 to -50).

Using delta to predict price movement as expiration nears

Let’s take a look at a different example:

Many first-time options buyers will gravitate toward the 133 strike call, because it’s the cheapest. However, if you understand delta you’ll see why it’s so cheap.

It’s cheap because its delta is only 0.05 – that is, this call option wouldn’t move much for a one-point move in the underlying. Why is its delta so low? Because the strike is so far away from the underlying price, the odds of the underlying finishing above $133 in 11 days are very small.

If you were lucky enough to get a one-point movement up tomorrow in this stock, delta suggests the option price should move only about five cents. In the real world, though, it might not move at all. Sure, it will move according to delta, but the option also lost one day of time value, as measured by a Greek called “theta ” (we’ll get to theta later on). When you factor in time decay, you’d be lucky if the option was still trading for 15 cents.

If a one - or two-point increase in the stock is expected before expiration, the 127 strike calls will most likely benefit you more than the cheap option (133 strike).

What’s the moral of the story? It’s crucial to understand how your option will move relative to the stock price. Without understanding delta, it’s hard to know which option will reward you the most if your forecast for the underlying security is correct.

Again, delta is dynamic: it changes not only as the underlying stock moves, but as expiration approaches. Gamma is the Greek that determines the amount of that movement.

Gamma is the amount a theoretical option’s delta will change for a corresponding one-unit (point) change in the price of the underlying security. In other words, if you look at delta as the “speed” of your option position, gamma is the “acceleration”. Gamma is positive when buying options and negative when selling them. Unlike delta, the sign is not affected when trading a call or put.

Just like when you buy a car, you may be attracted to more gamma/acceleration when buying options. If your option has a large gamma, its delta has the ability to approach one hundred (or 1.00) quickly, giving its price one-to-one movement with the stock. Option beginners usually see this as positive, but it can be a double-edged sword. When you have a large gamma, the delta can be affected very quickly, which means so will the option’s price. If the stock is moving in your favor, that’s great. If it’s doing an about-face and moving opposite to your prediction, changes in your option’s price may cause a lot of pain.

Gamma is highest for near-term ATM strikes, and slopes off toward ITM, OTM, and far-term strikes. This makes sense if you think it through: an option that’s ATM and close to expiration has a high likelihood to accelerate to the finish in either direction.

The graph below shows the gamma for a near-term option (15 days to expiration) with its underlying stock trading around $85. As you can see, gamma is clearly largest for the ATM strike price.

To better explain gamma, we need to revisit delta for a moment. Let’s go back to a previous example: an ATM call with a strike price of 40 and the stock also at $40. The new twist is there’s only one day remaining to expiration, instead of two months. Delta is still 50 because the option is exactly ATM. If the stock goes up, the call would be in-the-money; if it goes down it’d be out-of-the-money. In other words, you would have a 50/50 chance of the option finishing ITM on expiration. With this in mind, here’s an alternate definition and use for the term: delta is a guideline for giving odds of the option finishing ITM at expiration.

Now imagine the stock has moved up to $41, with one day remaining before expiration. The 40 strike call would already be in-the-money. What would the delta be now? Think about the second definition of delta. Being one point in-the-money with only one day remaining means the option has a higher likelihood of staying in-the-money. That likelihood translates into a much larger delta. In this case it may be close to 85.

What would gamma be then? Remember, gamma measures the acceleration factor of delta. When the stock was at $40, delta was 50. When the stock moved up one point to $41, delta increased to 85. The difference between the new delta and the old delta is gamma (85 – 50 = 35).

If we lengthen the time to expiration in this example, it would drastically change the way the option would act. Let’s now say the option has 60 days remaining until expiration, the stock is $41 and the call strike is still 40. What’s the probability of the option being ITM at expiration? It’s much lower because the stock has more time to move around between now and expiration. To reflect that idea, the delta on this option would be lower – probably around 60. The gamma was also much lower (around 10 or 0.10 when the stock was at $40).

If you want to get an idea of how much acceleration an option may have, you can look up gamma on TradeKing’s Call or Put Calc Chains before placing the trade. As with any Greek characteristic, there’s a tradeoff to consider. In this case, if you seek out options with high gamma for more acceleration, you’re also likely to get high theta (rate of time decay). This brings us to the next Greek.

Theta. time decay

Theta is the amount a theoretical option’s price will change for a corresponding one-unit (day) change in the number of days to expiration of the option contract.

Each moment that passes melts away some of the option’s value. Not only does the premium melt away, but it does so at an accelerated rate as expiration approaches. This is particularly true of at-the-money options. If the option is either very in - or out-of-the-money, its options tend to decay in a more linear fashion.

Because the price of the option erodes over time, theta takes the form of a negative number. However, its sign actually depends on what side of the trade you are on. Theta is enemy number one for the option buyer, and a friend to the option seller. Mathematically, this is represented by a negative number when buying options and a positive number when selling them. Theta may also be found on TradeKing’s Call and Put Calc Chain.

If we focus on at-the-money (ATM) options, there’s a quick and easy way to calculate and therefore estimate how fast an option’s time premium may decay. At-the-money options work best in this example because their prices only consist of time value, not intrinsic value (the value by which an option is in-the-money). This simplifies the calculations a bit.

At-the-money options move at the square root of time. This means if a one-month ATM option is trading for $1, then a two-month ATM option would be trading for 1 x sqrt of 2 or $1.41. A three-month ATM option would be trading for 1 x sqrt of 3 or $1.73.

If you work backwards and assume the underlying stock price and other variables have not changed, the three-month ATM option’s time value would lose 32 cents after one month passes. It’d lose another 41 cents after two months, and in the final month after three months have passed, the option would lose the entire dollar. It’s pretty obvious from this example that not only do options decay, but they decay at an accelerated rate as expiration approaches.

If we plot these points graphically you can see the accelerated curve of decay.

Since the time decay of ATM options accelerates as expiration nears, it makes sense that theta is a larger number for near-term options than for longer-term options. Consider XYZ trading at $100, the 100 call trading at $1.15 with an implied volatility of 20%, and seven days until expiration. The one-day theta for this option is -.085 or a negative 8.5 cents. If no other variables change except one day of time passing, this contract will trade for around $1.15 - .085, or $1.065.

What if this same contract had 180 days until expiration? The rate of theta here would be much slower than the seven-day option, about -.025 or negative 2.5 cents.

Time decay and volatility: an interesting relationship

If volatility increases, theta will become a larger negative number for both near - and longer-term options. As volatility decreases, theta usually becomes a smaller negative number.

Put in plainer terms, a higher-volatility option tends to lose more value due to time decay than a lower-volatility option. If you’re drawn to buying higher-volatility options for the action they bring, keep in mind that you’re also fighting time decay a bit harder with these contracts.

On the flipside, you may be more drawn to selling these high-volatility options because of the more rapid rate of decay they have over lower-volatility options. (Remember: time decay is the option seller’s friend and the option buyer’s foe.)

In either case, the rate of time decay is only one piece of the puzzle when analyzing opportunities. You’ll need to consider a variety of factors at once when deciding what, when and how to trade.

Considering time decay’s effect on your whole portfolio

It’s not only useful to look at theta on individual options; you should also consider net theta across your entire portfolio. If you are net long options in your account, your portfolio would likely have a negative theta. In other words, each day that passes your portfolio would suffer a bit from time decay. If you are net short options in your account, your portfolio would have positive theta, which means your account value may benefit with each day that passes.

TradeKing calculates both your individual positions and your net portfolio theta automatically. Simply login to your account and go to Accounts > Holdings - Options View.

At this moment in time, this sample account would theoretically lose $1,579.93 in one day from time decay alone. Keep in mind that many other factors beyond simple time decay would also affect your ultimate gains or losses: price swings on the underlying, changes in volatility, or a change in carry costs.

Vega. V is for volatility

Vega is one of the most important Greeks, but it often doesn’t get the respect it deserves. Vega is the amount a theoretical option’s price will change for a corresponding one-unit (percentage-point) change in the implied volatility of the option contract. Simply stated, Vega is the Greek that follows implied volatility (IV) swings.

Don’t forget we’re talking about implied volatility (IV) here, not historical volatility. Implied volatility is calculated from the current price of the option using a pricing model (Black-Scholes, Cox-Ross-Rubinstein, etc.); it’s what the current market prices are implying future volatility for the stock to be.

Just like the Greeks, implied volatility is determined by using a pricing model. Likewise, there is a marketplace expectation of how the option’s price might change due to this parameter. But as before, there is no guarantee that this forecast will be correct.

Historical volatility is calculated from actual past price movements in the underlying security. Historical volatility may also be referred to as stock volatility or statistical volatility. To look up an option’s vega, you’ll find it along with the other Greeks on TradeKing’s Call or Put Calc Chains.

Let’s consider an example: a 100 strike call option, with the stock trading at $100, 30 days to expiration, and implied volatility of 20%. The price of the option is $2.50 and the vega is equal to .115 or 11.5 cents. This means if nothing else in the marketplace changes except the option’s IV increases one percentage-point from 20% to 21%, this contract would trade for around $2.50 + .115, or $2.615. If volatility declines by one percentage-point (20% to 19%), you’d expect the option price to decline in the same fashion - by the amount of the vega.

Vega is typically larger for options in the far-term, which have more time premium. It’s also usually larger for at-the-money (ATM) options versus in - or out-of-the-money contracts. Think of it in these terms: the further out you go in time, the larger the amount of time premium in an option’s price. More time until expiration means the contract is more susceptible to IV fluctuations.

Like gamma. vega is positive when you buy options and negative when you sell them. The sign is not affected whether trading a call or put.

Vega is also usually higher for option contracts that trade with higher implied volatilities, since higher volatility typically drives up the cost of the option. More expensive underlyings also translate to large vega. Options that meet either of these criteria are typically more sensitive to changes in implied volatility.

Vega: a tale of two stocks

To give you a feel for what this all means, let’s look at two very different (and fictitious) companies – High Flyer Tech, Ltd. and Stable Manufacturing Inc. High Flyer has all the characteristics mentioned above. It’s a higher-priced stock ($390), and has a higher implied volatility (33%) when compared to Stable ($75 and 17% respectively). To show you how vega levels are sensitive to all the factors mentioned above, we chose calls with expiration dates further in the future for High Flyer than for Stable (56 days versus 28 days until expiration).

First, let’s compare High Flyer’s ATM strike price, 390, to the in - and out-of-the-money strikes. As expected, vega is much larger for the 390 strike: 0.61 or 61 cents. This means if the implied volatility of this option moves one percentage-point up or down, the option value would either increase or decrease by 61 cents. It’s worth noting the vega for the out-of-the-money 440 strike is smaller, but it represents a larger percentage of the option’s premium. It is 44 cents of $5.50 (8.0%) compared to 61 cents of $22.10 (2.7%).

Now let’s turn to Stable’s calls with 28 days until expiration. Stable’s stock is trading at a much lower per-share price compared to High Flyer and with lower implied volatility. Here we’re looking at relatively nearer-term options. The vega for the ATM strike is .08 or 8 cents - much smaller than High Flyer’s ATM call at 61 cents.

At the same time, on a percentage basis, eight cents is still a major factor in the price; eight cents of $1.45 equals 5.5% of the option’s price. So if this contract’s IV moves just one percentage-point lower, this option will lose 5.5% of its value. Decreasing implied volatility is one of the most annoying occurrences for option buyers: sometimes you’re right about the direction, but you still lose on the trade because of a drop in IV, also known as an implied volatility crunch.

Rho. interest rates

Rho is the amount a theoretical option’s price will change for a corresponding one-unit (percentage-point) change in the interest rate used to price the option contract. Typically the interest rate used here would be the risk-free rate of return. The rate associated with investing in Treasuries is traditionally defined by market experts as virtually risk-free. Rho is less important for those who trade nearer-term options, but may be useful for evaluating longer-term strategies.

Rho addresses part of the cost-to-carry issue: weighing the opportunity costs of tying up your cash in a long-term option versus other investments. (Whether or not the underlying stock pays a dividend can also impact cost-of-carry. Read below to learn more about dividends.)

Let’s consider an example: a 50 strike call option with the stock trading at $50. Let’s further assume we have 60 days to expiration, the annual risk-free interest rate is currently 5%, there are no dividends pending with this option, and implied volatility is currently 25%. The price of the call option is $2.25, and rho is .045 or 4.5 cents. This means if nothing else in the marketplace changes except the interest rate increases by one percentage-point, the call option would increase by the amount of the rho. In this case, the price of the call would increase in value by about five cents, to about $2.30 ($2.25 + $0.045 = $2.295). Interest rates don’t usually jump by a full percentage point at a time; a more likely occurrence is that they’d move a quarter-point (0.25%) or half-point (0.5%). For these fractional moves, multiply the rho by the amount of the interest rate change (either .25 or .50), and the result would be the theoretical impact on the option’s price (about one or two cents). If interest rates declined instead of increased, the call price would be expected to decrease by the amount of the rho multiplied by the change in the interest rate.

Here are a few takeaways about rho you may find useful:

Rho and vega react similarly when it comes to underlying price and time. Two factors that increase vega, or volatility exposure, are increasing time until expiration and higher underlying prices. These same factors also increase the option’s sensitivity to a change in interest rates. When compared to shorter-term options, longer-term contracts would usually have larger rho numbers, or higher sensitivity to interest rate shifts. Rho also tends to get larger the more expensive the underlying security gets.

Because rho relates to carry costs, calls usually have a positive rho value, while puts tend towards negative rho values. That is to say, an increase in interest rates would cause calls to become more expensive and puts to become less expensive. But keep in mind, this change in value has nothing to do with an investor’s outlook on the market. This change is only a result of how options pricing models work when they factor in a change in interest rates.

To bring this concept home, consider this example: let’s say you have $10,000 to invest. One choice is to invest it all in Treasury bonds, offering a theoretically risk-free rate of return. Another choice is to invest in $10,000 worth of stock – let’s say 100 shares of the same stock at $100 per share. And a third choice is to buy one ITM call option for $10 reflecting your interest to control 100 shares of stock. The call investment would be $10 x 100 = $1,000. This action would leave you with cash left over ($10,000 - $1,000 = $9,000).

If interest rates are high, the first alternative may be more attractive than the second because investing in Treasury bonds offers lower risk but still may offer a modest return when compared to investing in shares of stock. However, the third option can be a hybrid of the first two choices. This selection allows for the investor to participate in a market investment (call option) and also invest the left over money elsewhere (Treasury bonds). Although there is no guarantee that the call option (or the stock for that matter) would perform well, the return from the Treasury bond investment would boost the combined return when both investments are considered together.

The higher the interest rate, the more appealing the third choice becomes to investors. On the contrary, the lower the risk-free interest rate, the less attractive this combination investment turns out to be.

If you’re a fan of LEAPS options, rho can be a useful secondary or tertiary indicator to keep your eye on. LEAPS stands for Long Term Equity AnticiPation Securities; they’re basically extra-long-term option contracts. We’ve already established that longer-term options usually have larger rho numbers and are therefore more sensitive to interest rate shifts. TradeKing’s Call or Put Calc can help you predict how your LEAPS option may be affected by interest rate changes.

Dividends: as important as a Greek in impacting options prices

Dividends (either in cash or in shares) are paid by many companies to its shareholders, most often on a quarterly basis. Why should options traders care about dividends? Dividends are part of the options pricing model, and so that alone makes them relevant. But the real answer is that dividends can impact option price movement much like the Greeks do. If you want a better handle on why options prices change, you’ll need to watch your Greeks and any upcoming dividends on the underlying. Let’s go back to cost-to-carry for a moment. As stated earlier, rho helps an investor evaluate the opportunities and risks of interest rate changes on an option. The other factor impacting cost-to-carry is whether or not the stock pays a dividend. If an investor owns stock, carry costs can be determined using interest rates. However if the stock pays a dividend, the carry cost is reduced by the amount of the dividend the investor receives. Think of the interest cost as money going out, and the dividend as money coming in.

Because of this relationship, changes in dividends (increases, decreases, or the addition or elimination of them) will affect call and put prices. Since they somewhat counteract interest costs, they affect prices in the opposite manner as rho. Increasing dividends will reduce the price of calls and boost the price of puts. Decreasing dividends will have the reverse effect – call values go up and put values go down.

Just as the passage of time affects all the Greeks, it also affects dividends. The more time to expiration, the more quarterly dividends may occur in the same period. So any change in a dividend will have a greater effect on longer-term options than shorter-term contracts. Dividend amounts for any stock may be found under TradeKing’s Quotes + Research tab.

In conclusion.

There are many factors that affect an option’s price, and the Greeks help us understand this process better. It’s possible for some Greeks to be working for your position while others are simultaneously working against it. If you understand how changing conditions can affect your options trades, you may be able to better position yourself accordingly.

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Below are FX Empire best forex brokers in Germany for 2012.

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Online German forex brokers

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Название: Optimal Trading Strategies: Quantitative Approaches for Managing Market Impact and Trading Risk

Авторы: Kissell R. Glantz M.


Everyday financial professionals are required to make important decisions regarding how best to execute an investment decision. The process entails estimating transaction costs, forecasting market impact and risk, evaluating alternative strategies, developing optimal trading strategies, choosing agency transaction or principal bid, and selecting the most suitable broker-dealer. Investors know all too well that trading too aggressively will cause too high market impact cost, but trading too passively will expose the fund to more risk, which may result in even higher costs. Investors need to find an appropriate balance between cost and risk, given the goals and objectives of the fund. Improper implementation will effectively erode much of the value added during the investment process and may ultimately cause investors to lose profits and funds to lose investors.

How can you maximize value instead? The answer lies in the proactive management of transaction costs and selection of trading strategy, the process to which this book is dedicated. Optimal Trading Strategies presents well-developed methodologies for managing and reducing costs throughout all stages of the investment cycle. You will find:

· Quantitative techniques for estimating, analyzing, and managing transaction costs

· A framework for forecasting market impact and risk

· Methodologies to develop optimal trading strategies

· A process to achieve best execution

· Metrics for measuring costs and evaluating performance

Consider this: Two money managers invest in and hold identical portfolios but one manager consistently outperforms the other by as much as 50 to100 basis points per quarter. The more successful manager is inevitably the one who better manages trading costs. In a highly competitive environment where every basis point counts, it is critical to seize every foreseeable advantage for your investors. By using the framework and techniques presented in this book, you will better position yourself to achieve higher portfolio returns.

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Scalping stocks-trading in brief timeframes

Scalping stocks-trading in brief timeframesScalping Stocks - Trading in Brief Timeframes

Scalping stocks is a term used that represents a stock trading strategy that involves the potential of making profits, or having losses, very quickly, often within seconds or minutes.

This type of trading is geared towards the hardcore trader who has time to stare at a computer screen and watch every movement of a stock with total concentration.

I say hardcore, but actually if you have the right trading plan, this type of trading can be very profitable for the right type of person, hardcore or not.

The key phrase here is "the right type of person". In addition to this page, take a look my other page Scalping the Market Using BAC .

Being successful at this type of stock trading requires several key traits. Here are some of them, including what I mentioned above:

Being able to stare at a computer screen for long periods of time. Able to work without being distracted. Available to trade during mostly morning hours. Ability to accept being wrong and getting out of a losing trade quickly. Have access to an advanced trading program. Own a current, fast processing computer. Have a fast, reliable Internet connection with a backup connection. Have a power backup for your trading computer. Have the ability to make sound, quick decisions without being influenced easily.

Any of these sound like you? Maybe I was right above when I said "hardcore". You definitely have to be able to control your emotions and stick to your trading plan with scalping.

Your competitors in any type of trading include some professionals, but in scalping, a larger percentage of the competition are professionals.

The positive side of this type of trading is that you can make a good amount, even consistent profits, on a regular basis if you are successful.

You also don't have to wait days or weeks looking for the right set up on a chart before picking a stock. Most scalping is done based on news that comes out, which is every day for one stock or another.

Here are some examples of scalping opportunities shown using charts. Take a look at each one carefully and one at a time, before looking at the chart that follows it:

This partial chart shows a stock opening at a certain price and immediately starting to go up. In this example, there is a scalping opportunity (depending on your trading plan and rules) to get into a trade either buying, expecting the price to rise, or selling short if you think the price will go down.

Remember, scalping stocks involves trying to profit from moves in prices over very short periods of time. In the chart I am showing, making a small amount of say a .10% profit target would only require a .12 cent move in the price. A .25% profit target would be a .25 cent move.

Depending on the number of trades each day, a profit target of a few pennies per trade is very common.

Which way do you think the price will go next?

Click on the "Show Chart" button below to see if you were right.

If you would have bought the stock at the top of the previous chart when the price was rising, you can now see that the stock reversed and started going lower. Depending on your trading plan rules, you may have had to close the trade and taken a loss.

This is an example of why someone who does scalping has to watch very closely to notice these quick changes in prices. These charts are only showing 1 minute time frames, so in a matter of seconds you could have a substantial loss or profit, depending on what point you enter a trade to begin with.

Some people will look at these and say ".10% or .25% profit target. that's too small and you can't make any money like that". But if you are scalping and you have a good trading plan, having small profit targets are part of the plan.

Think about it, if you can average .25% profit in a day, times 5 days/week, that is +1.25% per week. Still seem like a small amount? What about when you multiply this times about 40 weeks per year? Now we're at +50% for the year!

While this is not typical, if you work with the numbers and develop your plan right, you can see that scalping only requires these small profit targets for yourself. If you can average +50% in a year, you will have the opportunity to make a lot of money and people will want to pay for the trading plan that you use.

On the first chart above, traders were buying and the price started going higher, then in the second chart while more people started buying, the price started going down.

Why? Because as more people started to buy (these were the inexperienced traders following the price higher), the professional (experienced) traders started to sell.

After all, who were the inexperienced traders buying from? They had to buy for someone, right?

Are you with me so far? Keep following along and we'll see how the rest of the day turned out for this particular stock.

Take a look at the next two charts below and you will see that between about 9:40 and 9:48 the price did the same thing again, it went up for a few minutes (to about the same previous high price-this is an intraday resistance level), and then went right back down as the experienced scalpers took profits again.

At this point, the inexperienced traders have given up after getting whiplash from the price action so far. Now the experienced traders are buying again as you can see in the chart below. Notice how we are right back up to the previous high of the day, or intraday resistance level:

Below you can see that once again, as the price went up to the previous resistance level, the experienced traders started selling to the inexperienced traders.

Also notice that the price around 10:00 did not go as low as the prior low for that morning, this was because the inexperienced traders were exhausted as I said above. They called it quits for the day and the selling pressure decreased because there was no one left to sell to.

This is the time when the successful traders step in and start buying, as you can see by the price rising again and this time going a bit above the previous high.

Now take a look below at how the rest of the morning played out. As you can see, the same pattern repeated one after another all the way until about 11:30 in this chart. If you were scalping, notice how many opportunities there were just from 9:30 until 11:30, a lot.

The rest of this particular day went sideways, down, up and then back down a little. The high point at 11:30 was the high for the day. At one point in the afternoon the price reached this level again, only to back off and start going down (new resistance level).

Basically, there are plenty of opportunities in the morning hours to look for scalping possibilities. News of some type or another comes out every day.

If you try and trade this way all through the day, you will wind up getting burnt out and start making mistakes from all the zig zagging price action. That's why it's best to try to limit your trading time, especially with this type of trading.

That's all for right now. I hope you enjoyed these examples and they helped you understand about scalping. Send me a message if you have any more questions on this topic, I will be glad to hear from you.

I also have added another page with some scalping examples here: Scalping the Market Using BAC .

For more examples and illustrations like this, sign up for my Free Market Trader Ezine/Newsletter .

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Category archives free magazines

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The world sleading quantitative finance event derivatives pricing,regulation,risk management,qua

The world sleading quantitative finance event derivatives pricing,regulation,risk management,quaThe World's Leading Quantitative Finance Event: Derivatives Pricing, Regulation, Risk Management, Quant Investment Strategies & Algorithmic Trading

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The2period rsi pullback trading strategy pdf

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Currency spikes at4pm london are not evidence of manipulation

Currency spikes at4pm london are not evidence of manipulationCurrency spikes at 4pm London are not evidence of manipulation

Last week I posted up an article from Bloomberg that discussed spikes in currency rates around 4pm London time for the WM/Reuters fix, which fund managers and scholars say the patterns look like an attempt by currency dealers to manipulate the rates.

Heres an alternative take on the matter, saying Im always skeptical whenever someone tries to tell me that the fix is fixed (amen to that )

The WM/Reuters fix is calculated by examining actual trades made over a one-minute period beginning 30 seconds before the top of the hour

Traders try to push through as many trades as possible in the few moments leading up to the fix

Price movements that happen just before the fix are often the result of everyone trying to squeeze through the door at the same time

Prosaic, no? Still, I dont imagine it will placate those who like to call manipulation whenever they can.

Online Currency spikes at4pm london are not evidence of manipulation

El trading de forex ycfd esta en nuestro adn

El trading de forex ycfd está en nuestro adnHerramientas de Forex

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AVISO DE RIESGO: Las operaciones en divisas /CFD’s se hacen utilizando margenes, lo cual trae consigo un alto nivel de riesgo y podria no ser adecuado para usted ya que podria sufrir perdidas que sobrepasen su deposito. El apalancamiento puede trabajar en contra de usted. No debe invertir dinero que no este en posicion de perder. Usted debe estar atento y debe comprender completamente todos los riesgos relacionados con el mercado y las operaciones. Antes de decidir operar los productos ofrecidos por Forex Capital Markets, LLC. FXCM Securities Limited. Forex Capital Markets Limited. incluyendo todas las sucursales en la Union Europea, o FXCM Australia Limited. cualquiera de los afiliados de las empresas antes mencionadas, u otras empresas bajo el grupo de las empresas en FXCM Inc. (NYSE: FXCM) [colectivamente “FXCM”], usted debe considerar cuidadosamente su situacion financiera y su nivel de experiencia. Si decide operar los productos ofrecidos por FXCM Australia Limited (AFSL 309763), usted debe leer y comprender la Guia de Servicios Financieros y la Declaracion de Clausulas de Productos. FXCM puede proporcionar comentarios generales, los cuales no pretenden ser asesoramiento de inversion y no deben interpretarse como tal. Por favor busque el asesoramiento de un consultor financiero independiente. FXCM no asume ninguna responsabilidad por errores, inexactitudes u omisiones; no garantiza la exactitud ni la plenitud de la informacion, el texto, las graficas, los enlaces u otros elementos incluidos en estos materiales. Por favor lea y comprenda los “Terminos y Condiciones ” localizados en el sitio web de FXCM antes de tomar mas acciones.

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The pros and cons of automated trading systems

The pros and cons of automated trading systemsThe Pros And Cons Of Automated Trading Systems

Traders and investors can turn precise entry. exit and money management rules into automated trading systems that allow computers to execute and monitor the trades. One of the biggest attractions of strategy automation is that it can take some of the emotion out of trading since trades are automatically placed once certain criteria are met. This article will introduce readers to and explain some of the advantages and disadvantages, as well as the realities, of automated trading systems. (For related reading, see The Power Of Program Trades. )

Figure 1: A five-minute chart of the ES contract with an automated strategy applied.

Some trading platforms have strategy building "wizards" that allow users to make selections from a list of commonly available technical indicators to build a set of rules that can then be automatically traded. The user could establish, for example, that a long trade will be entered once the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average on a five-minute chart of a particular trading instrument. Users can also input the type of order (market or limit, for instance) and when the trade will be triggered (for example, at the close of the bar or open of the next bar), or use the platform's default inputs. Many traders, however, choose to program their own custom indicators and strategies or work closely with a programmer to develop the system. While this typically requires more effort than using the platform's wizard, it allows a much greater degree of flexibility and the results can be more rewarding. (Unfortunately, there is no perfect investment strategy that will guarantee success. For more, see Using Technical Indicators To Develop Trading Strategies. )

Once the rules have been established, the computer can monitor the markets to find buy or sell opportunities based on the trading strategy specifications. Depending on the specific rules, as soon as a trade is entered, any orders for protective stop losses. trailing stops and profit targets will automatically be generated. In fast moving markets, this instantaneous order entry can mean the difference between a small loss and a catastrophic loss in the event the trade moves against the trader.

Advantages of Automated Trading Systems

There is a long list of advantages to having a computer monitor the markets for trading opportunities and execute the trades, including:

Minimize Emotions . Automated trading systems minimize emotions throughout the trading process. By keeping emotions in check, traders typically have an easier time sticking to the plan. Since trade orders are executed automatically once the trade rules have been met, traders will not be able to hesitate or question the trade. In addition to helping traders who are afraid to "pull the trigger", automated trading can curb those who are apt to overtrade – buying and selling at every perceived opportunity.

Ability to Backtest. Backtesting applies trading rules to historical market data to determine the viability of the idea. When designing a system for automated trading, all rules need to be absolute, with no room for interpretation (the computer cannot make guesses – it has to be told exactly what to do). Traders can take these precise sets of rules and test them on historical data before risking money in live trading. Careful backtesting allows traders to evaluate and fine-tune a trading idea, and to determine the system's expectancy – the average amount that a trader can expect to win (or lose) per unit of risk. (We offer some tips on this process that can help refind your current trading strategies. For more, see Backtesting: Interpreting the Past. )

Preserve Discipline. Because the trade rules are established and trade execution is performed automatically, discipline is preserved even in volatile markets. Discipline is often lost due to emotional factors such as fear of taking a loss, or the desire to eke out a little more profit from a trade. Automated trading helps ensure that discipline is maintained because the trading plan will be followed exactly. In addition, pilot-error is minimized, and an order to buy 100 shares will not be incorrectly entered as an order to sell 1,000 shares.

Achieve Consistency. One of the biggest challenges in trading is to plan the trade and trade the plan . Even if a trading plan has the potential to be profitable, traders who ignore the rules are altering any expectancy the system would have had. There is no such thing as a trading plan that wins 100% of the time – losses are a part of the game. But losses can be psychologically traumatizing, so a trader who has two or three losing trades in a row might decide to skip the next trade. If this next trade would have been a winner, the trader has already destroyed any expectancy the system had. Automated trading systems allow traders to achieve consistency by trading the plan. (It's impossible to avoid disaster without trading rules. For more, see 10 Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan. )

Improved Order Entry Speed. Since computers respond immediately to changing market conditions, automated systems are able to generate orders as soon as trade criteria are met. Getting in or out of a trade a few seconds earlier can make a big difference in the trade's outcome. As soon as a position is entered, all other orders are automatically generated, including protective stop losses and profit targets. Markets can move quickly, and it is demoralizing to have a trade reach the profit target or blow past a stop loss level – before the orders can even be entered. An automated trading system prevents this from happening.

Diversify Trading . Automated trading systems permit the user to trade multiple accounts or various strategies at one time. This has the potential to spread risk over various instruments while creating a hedge against losing positions. What would be incredibly challenging for a human to accomplish is efficiently executed by a computer in a matter of milliseconds. The computer is able to scan for trading opportunities across a range of markets, generate orders and monitor trades.

Disadvantages and Realities of Automated Trading Systems

Automated trading systems boast many advantages, but there are some downfalls of and realties to which traders should be aware.

Mechanical failures. The theory behind automated trading makes it seem simple: set up the software, program the rules and watch it trade. In reality, however, automated trading is a sophisticated method of trading, yet not infallible. Depending on the trading platform, a trade order could reside on a computer – and not a server. What that means is that if an Internet connection is lost, an order might not be sent to the market. There could also be a discrepancy between the "theoretical trades" generated by the strategy and the order entry platform component that turns them into real trades. Most traders should expect a learning curve when using automated trading systems, and it is generally a good idea to start with small trade sizes while the process is refined.

Monitoring . Although it would be great to turn on the computer and leave for the day, automated trading systems do require monitoring. This is due do the potential for mechanical failures, such as connectivity issues, power losses or computer crashes, and to system quirks. It is possible for an automated trading system to experience anomalies that could result in errant orders, missing orders, or duplicate orders. If the system is monitored, these events can be identified and resolved quickly.

Over-optimization. Though not specific to automated trading systems, traders who employ backtesting techniques can create systems that look great on paper and perform terribly in a live market. Over-optimization refers to excessive curve-fitting that produces a trading plan that is unreliable in live trading. It is possible, for example, to tweak a strategy to achieve exceptional results on the historical data on which it was tested. Traders sometimes incorrectly assume that a trading plan should have close to 100% profitable trades or should never experience a drawdown to be a viable plan. As such, parameters can be adjusted to create a "near perfect" plan – that completely fails as soon as it is applied to a live market. (This over-optimization creates systems that look good on paper only. For more, see Backtesting And Forward Testing: The Importance Of Correlation. )

Server-Based Automation

Traders do have the option to run their automated trading systems through a server-based trading platform such as Strategy Runner. These platforms frequently offer commercial strategies for sale, a wizard so traders can design their own systems, or the ability to host existing systems on the server-based platform. For a fee, the automated trading system can scan for, execute and monitor trades – with all orders residing on their server, resulting in potentially faster, more reliable order entries.


Although a ppealing for a variety of factors, automated trading systems should not be considered a substitute for carefully executed trading. Mechanical failures can happen, and as such, these systems do require monitoring. Server-based platforms may provide a solution for traders wishing to minimize the risks of mechanical failures. (For related reading, see Day Trading Strategies For Beginners. )

Online The pros and cons of automated trading systems

Section4selecting an appropriate design for the evaluation

Section4selecting an appropriate design for the evaluationChapter 37 Sections

Why should you choose a design for your evaluation?

When should you do so?

Who should be involved in choosing a design?

How do you select an appropriate design for your evaluation?

When you hear the word “experiment,” it may call up pictures of people in long white lab coats peering through microscopes. In reality, an experiment is just trying something out to see how or why or whether it works. It can be as simple as putting a different spice in your favorite dish, or as complex as developing and testing a comprehensive effort to improve child health outcomes in a city or state.

Academics and other researchers in public health and the social sciences conduct experiments to understand how environments affect behavior and outcomes, so their experiments usually involve people and aspects of the environment. A new community program or intervention is an experiment, too, one that a governmental or community organization engages in to find out a better way to address a community issue. It usually starts with an assumption about what will work – sometimes called a theory of change - but that assumption is no guarantee. Like any experiment, a program or intervention has to be evaluated to see whether it works and under what conditions.

In this section, we’ll look at some of the ways you might structure an evaluation to examine whether your program is working, and explore how to choose the one that best meets your needs. These arrangements for discovery are known as experimental (or evaluation) designs.

What do we mean by a design for the evaluation?

Every evaluation is essentially a research or discovery project. Your research may be about determining how effective your program or effort is overall, which parts of it are working well and which need adjusting, or whether some participants respond to certain methods or conditions differently from others. If your results are to be reliable, you have to give the evaluation a structure that will tell you what you want to know. That structure – the arrangement of discovery - is the evaluation’s design.

The design depends on what kinds of questions your evaluation is meant to answer.

Some of the most common evaluation (research) questions :

Does a particular program or intervention – whether an instructional or motivational program, improving access and opportunities, or a policy change – cause a particular change in participants’ or others’ behavior, in physical or social conditions, health or development outcomes, or other indicators of success?

What component(s) and element(s) of the program or intervention were responsible for the change?

What are the unintended effects of an intervention, and how did they influence the outcomes?

If you try a new method or activity, what happens?

Will the program that worked in another context, or the one that you read about in a professional journal, work in your community, or with your population, or with your issue?

If you want reliable answers to evaluation questions like these, you have to ask them in a way that will show you whether you actually got results, and whether those results were in fact due to your actions or the circumstances you created, or to other factors. In other words, you have to create a design for your research – or evaluation – to give you clear answers to your questions. We’ll discuss how to do that later in the section.

Why should you choose a design for your evaluation?

An evaluation may seem simple: if you can see progress toward your goal by the end of the evaluation period, you’re doing OK; if you can’t, you need to change. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple at all. First, how do you measure progress? Second, if there seems to be none, how do you know what you should change in order to increase your effectiveness? Third, if there is progress, how do you know it was caused by ( or contributed to) your program, and not by something else? And finally, even if you’re doing well, how will you decide what you could do better, and what elements of your program can be changed or eliminated without affecting success? A good design for your evaluation will help you answer important questions like these.

Some specific reasons for spending the time to design your evaluation carefully include:

So your evaluation will be reliable. A good design will give you accurate results. If you design your evaluation well, you can trust it to tell you whether you’re actually having an effect, and why. Understanding your program to this extent makes it easier to achieve and maintain success.

So you can pinpoint areas you need to work on, as well as those that are successful . A good design can help you understand exactly where the strong and weak points of your program or intervention are, and give you clues as to how they can be further strengthened or changed for the greatest impact.

So your results are credible . If your evaluation is designed properly, others will take your results seriously. If a well-designed evaluation shows that your program is effective, you’re much more likely to be able to convince others to use similar methods, and to convince funders that your organization is a good investment.

So you can identify factors unrelated to what you’re doing that have an effect – positive or negative – on your results and on the lives of participants. Participants’ histories, crucial local or national events, the passage of time, personal crises, and many other factors can influence the outcome of a program or intervention for better or worse. A good evaluation design can help you to identify these, and either correct for them if you can, or devise methods to deal with or incorporate them.

So you can identify unintended consequences (both positive and negative) and correct for them . A good design can show you all of what resulted from your program or intervention, not just what you expected. If you understand that your work has consequences that are negative as well as positive, or that it has more and/or different positive consequences than you anticipated, you can adjust accordingly.

So you’ll have a coherent plan and organizing structure for your evaluation . It will be much easier to conduct your evaluation if it has an appropriate design. You’ll know better what you need to do in order to get the information you need. Spending the time to choose and organize an evaluation design will pay off in the time you save later and in the quality of the information you get.

When should you choose a design for your evaluation?

Once you’ve determined your evaluation questions and gathered and organized all the information you can about the issue and ways to approach it, the next step is choosing a design for the evaluation. Ideally, this all takes place at the beginning of the process of putting together a program or intervention. Your evaluation should be an integral part of your program, and its planning should therefore be an integral part of the program planning.

That’s the ideal; now let’s talk about reality. If you’re reading this, the chances are probably at least 50-50 that you’re connected to an underfunded government agency or to a community-based or non-governmental organization, and that you’re planning an evaluation of a program or intervention that’s been running for some time – months or even years.

Even if that’s true, the same guidelines apply. Choose your questions, gather information, choose a design, and then go on through the steps presented in this chapter. Evaluation is important enough that you won’t really be accomplishing anything by taking shortcuts in planning it. If your program has a cycle, then it probably makes sense to start your evaluation at the beginning of it – the beginning of a year or a program phase, where all participants are starting from the same place, or from the beginning of their involvement.

If that’s not possible – if your program has a rolling admissions policy, or provides a service whenever people need it – and participants are all at different points, that can sometimes present research problems. You may want to evaluate the program’s effects only with new participants, or with another specific group. On the other hand, if your program operates without a particular beginning and end, you may get the best picture of its effectiveness by evaluating it as it is, starting whenever you’re ready. Whatever the case, your design should follow your information gathering and synthesis.

Who should be involved in choosing a design?

If you’re a regular Tool Box user, and particularly if you’ve been reading this chapter, you know that the Tool Box team generally recommends a participatory process – involving both research and community partners, including all those with an interest in or who are affected with the program in planning and implementation. Choosing a design for evaluation presents somewhat of an exception to this policy, since scientific or evaluation partners may have a much clearer understanding of what is required to conduct research, and of the factors that may interfere with it.

As we’ll see in the “how-to” part of this section, there are a number of considerations that have to be taken into account to gain accurate information that actually tells you what you want to know. Graduate students generally take courses to gain the knowledge they need to conduct research well, and even some veteran researchers have difficulty setting up an appropriate research design. That doesn’t mean a community group can’t learn to do it, but rather that the time they would have to spend on acquiring background knowledge might be too great. Thus, it makes the most sense to assign this task (or at the very least its coordination) to an individual or small group with experience in research and evaluation design. Such a person can not only help you choose among possible designs, but explain what each design entails, in time, resources, and necessary skills, so that you can judge its appropriateness and feasibility for your context.

How do you choose a design for your evaluation?

How do you go about deciding what kind of research design will best serve the purposes of your evaluation?

The answer to that question involves an examination of four areas:

The nature of the research questions you are trying to answer

The challenges to the research, and the ways they can be resolved or reduced

The kinds of research designs that are generally used, and what each design entails

The possibility of adapting a particular research design to your program or situation – what the structure of your program will support, what participants will consent to, and what your resources and time constraints are

We’ll begin this part of the section with an examination of the concerns research designs should address, go on to considering some common designs and how well they address those concerns, and end with some guidelines for choosing a design that will both be possible to implement and give you the information you need about your program.

Note . in this part of the section, we’re looking at evaluation as a research project. As a result, we’ll use the term “research” in many places where we could just as easily have said, for the purposes of this section, “evaluation.” Research is more general, and some users of this section may be more concerned with research in general than evaluation in particular.

Concerns research designs should address

The most important consideration in designing a research project – except perhaps for the value of the research itself – is whether your arrangement will provide you with valid information. If you don’t design and set up your research project properly, your findings won’t give you information that is accurate and likely to hold true with other situations. In the case of an evaluation, that means that you won’t have a basis for adjusting what you do to strengthen and improve it.

Here’s a far-fetched example that illustrates this point. If you took children’s heights at age six, then fed them large amounts of a specific food for three years – say carrots – and measured them again at the end of the period, you’d probably find that most of them were considerably taller at nine years than at six. You might conclude that it was eating carrots that made the children taller because your research design gave you no basis for comparing these children’s growth to that of other children.

There are two kinds of threats to the validity of a piece of research . They are usually referred to as threats to internal validity (whether the intervention produced the change) and threats to external validity (whether the results are likely to apply to other people and situations).

Threats to internal validity

These are threats (or alternative explanations) to your claim that what you did caused changes in the direction you were aiming for. They are generally posed by factors operating at the same time as your program or intervention that might have an effect on the issue you’re trying to address. If you don’t have a way of separating their effects from those of your program, you can’t tell whether the observed changes were caused by your work, or by one or more of these other factors. They’re called threats to internal validity because they’re internal to the study – they have to do with whether your intervention – and not something else – accounted for the difference.

There are several kinds of threats to internal validity:

History. Both participants’ personal histories – their backgrounds, cultures, experiences, education, etc. – and external events that occur during the research period – a disaster, an election, conflict in the community, a new law – may influence whether or not there’s any change in the outcomes you’re concerned with.

Maturation . This refers to the natural physical, psychological, and social processes that take place as time goes by. The growth of the carrot-eating children in the example above is a result of maturation, for instance, as might be a decline in risky behavior as someone passed from adolescence to adulthood, the development of arthritis in older people, or participants becoming tired during learning activities towards the end of the day.

The effects of testing or observation on participants . The mere fact of a program’s existence, or of their taking part in it, may affect participants’ behavior or attitudes, as may the experience of being tested, videotaped, or otherwise observed or measured.

Changes in measurement . An instrument – a blood pressure cuff or a scale, for instance – can change over time, or different ones may not give the same results. By the same token, observers – those gathering information – may change their standards over time, or two or more observers may disagree on the observations.

Regression toward the mean . This is a statistical term that refers to the fact that, over time, the very high and very low scores on a measure (a test, for instance) often tend to drift back toward the average for the group. If you start a program with participants who, by definition, have very low or high levels of whatever you’re measuring – reading skill, exposure to domestic violence, particular behavior toward people of other races or backgrounds, etc. – their scores may end up closer to the average over the course of the evaluation period even without any program.

The selection of participants . Those who choose participants may slant their selection toward a particular group that is more or less likely to change than a cross-section of the population from which the group was selected. (A good example is that of employment training programs that get paid according to the number of people they place in jobs. They’re more likely to select participants who already have all or most of the skills they need to become employed, and neglect those who have fewer skills. and who therefore most need the service.) Selection can play a part when participants themselves choose to enroll in a program (self-selection), since those who decide to participate are probably already motivated to make changes. It may also be a matter of chance: members of a particular group may, simply by coincidence, share a characteristic that will set their results on your measures apart from the norm of the population you’re drawing from.

Selection can also be a problem when two groups being compared are chosen by different standards. We’ll discuss this further below when we deal with control or comparison groups.

The loss of data or participants . If too little information is collected about participants, or if too many drop out well before the research period is over, your results may be based on too little data to be reliable. This also arises when two groups are being compared. If their losses of data or participants are significantly different, comparing them may no longer give you valid information.

The nature of change . Often, change isn’t steady and even. It can involve leaps forward and leaps backward before it gets to a stable place – if it ever does. (Think of looking at the performance of a sports team halfway through the season. No matter what its record is at that moment, you won’t know how well it will finish until the season is over.) Your measurements may take place over too short a period or come at the wrong times to track the true course of the change or lack of change that’s occurring.

A combination of the effects of two or more of these . Two or more of these factors may combine to produce or prevent the changes your program aims to produce. A language-study curriculum that is tested only on students who already speak two or more languages runs into problems with both participants’ history – all the students have experience learning languages other than their own – and selection – you’ve chosen students who are very likely to be successful at language learning.

Threats to external validity

These are factors that affect your ability to apply your research results in other circumstances – to increase the chances that your program and its results can be reproduced elsewhere or with other populations. If, for instance, you offer parenting classes only to single mothers, you can’t assume, no matter how successful they appear to be, that the same classes will work as well with men.

Threats to external validity (or generalizability) may be the result of the interactions of other factors with the program or intervention itself, or may be due to particular conditions of the program.

Interaction of testing or data collection and the program or intervention . An initial test or observation might change the way participants react to the program, making a difference in final outcomes. Since you can’t assume that another group will have the same reaction or achieve similar final outcomes as a result, external validity or generalizability of the findings becomes questionable.

Interaction of selection procedures and the program or intervention . If the participants selected or self-selected are particularly sensitive to the methods or purpose of the program, it can’t be assumed to be effective with participants who are less sensitive or ready for the program.

Parents who’ve been threatened by the government with the loss of their children due to child abuse may be more receptive to learning techniques for improving their parenting, for example, than parents who are under no such pressure.

The effects of the research arrangements . Participants may change behavior as a result of being observed, or may react to particular individuals in ways they would be unlikely to react to others.

A classic example here is that of a famous baboon researcher, Irven DeVore, who after years of observing troupes of baboons, realized that they behaved differently when he was there than when he wasn’t. Although his intent was to observe their natural behavior, his presence itself constituted an intervention, making the behavior of the baboons he was observing different from that of a troupe that was not observed.

The interference of multiple treatments or interventions . The effects of a particular program can be changed when participants are exposed to it beforehand in a different context, or are exposed to another before or at the same time as the one being evaluated. This may occur when participants are receiving services from different sources, or being treated simultaneously for two or more health issues or other conditions.

Given the range of community programs that exist, there are many possibilities here. Adults might be members of a high school completion class while participating in a substance abuse recovery program. A diabetic might be treated with a new drug while at the same time participating in a nutrition and physical activity program to deal with obesity. Sometimes, the sequence of treatments or services in a single program can have the same effect, with one influencing how participants respond to those that follow, even though each treatment is being evaluated separately.

Common research designs

Many books have been written on the subject of research design. While they contain too much material to summarize here, there are some basic designs that we can introduce. The important differences among them come down to how many measurements you’ll take, when you will take them, and how many groups of what kind will be involved.

Program evaluations generally look for the answers to three basic questions:

Was there any change – in participants’ or others’ behavior, in physical or social conditions, or in outcomes or indicators of success – during the evaluation period?

Was whatever change took place – or the lack of change – caused by your program, intervention, or effort?

What, in your program or outside it, actually caused or prevented the change?

As we’ve discussed, changes and improvement in outcomes may have been caused by some or all of your intervention, or by external factors. Participants’ or the community’s history might have been crucial. Participants may have changed as a result of simply getting older and more mature or more experienced in the world – often an issue when working with children or adolescents. Environmental factors – events, policy change, or conditions in participants’ lives – can often facilitate or prevent change as well. Understanding exactly where the change came from or where the barriers to change reside, gives you the opportunity to adjust your program to take advantage of or combat those factors.

If all you had to do was to measure whatever behavior or condition you wanted to influence at the beginning and end of the evaluation, choosing a design would be an easy task. Unfortunately, it’s not quite that simple – there are those nasty threats to validity to worry about. We have to keep them in mind as we look at some common research designs.

Research designs, in general, differ in one or both of two ways: the number and timing of the measurements they use; and whether they look at single or multiple groups. We’ll look at single-group designs first, then go on to multiple groups.

Before we go any further, it is helpful to have an understanding of some basic research terms that we will be using in our discussion.

Researchers usually refer to your first measurement(s) or observation(s) – the ones you take before you start your program or intervention – as a baseline measure or baseline observation . because it establishes a baseline – a known level – to which you compare future measurements or observations.

Some other important research terms:

Independent variables are the program itself and/or the methods or conditions that the researcher – in this case, you – wants to evaluate. They’re called variables because they can change – you might have chosen (and might still choose) other methods. They’re independent because their existence doesn’t depend on whether something else occurs: you’ve chosen them, and they’ll stay consistent throughout the evaluation period.

Dependent variables are whatever may or may not change as a result of the presence of the independent variable(s). In an evaluation, your program or intervention is the independent variable. (If you’re evaluating a number of different methods or conditions, each of them is an independent variable.) Whatever you’re trying to change is the dependent variable. (If you’re aiming at change in more than one behavior or outcome, each type of change is a different dependent variable.) They’re called dependent variables because changes in them depend on the action of the independent variable. or something else.

Measures are just that – measurements of the dependent variables. They usually refer to procedures that have results that can be translated into numbers, and may take the form of community assessments, observations, surveys, interviews, or tests. They may also count incidents or measure the amount of the dependent variable (number or percentage of children who are overweight or obese, violent crimes per 100,000 population, etc.)

Observations might involve measurement, or they might simply record what happens in specific circumstances: the ways in which people use a space, the kinds of interactions children have in a classroom, the character of the interactions during an assessment. For convenience, researchers often use “observation” to refer to any kind of measurement and we’ll use the same convention here.

Pre - and post - single-group design

The simplest design is also probably the least accurate and desirable: the pre (before) and post (after) measurement or observation. This consists of simply measuring whatever you’re concerned with in one group – the infant mortality rate, unemployment, water pollution – applying your intervention to that group or community, and then observing again. This type of design assumes that a difference in the two observations will tell you whether there was a change over the period between them, and also assumes that any positive change was caused by the intervention.

In most cases, a pre-post design won’t tell you much, because it doesn’t really address any of the research concerns we’ve discussed. It doesn’t account for the influence of other factors on the dependent variable, and it doesn’t tell you anything about trends of change or the progress of change during the evaluation period – only where participants were at the beginning and where they were at the end. It can help you determine whether certain kinds of things have happened – whether there’s been a reduction in the level of educational attainment or the amount of environmental pollution in a river, for instance – but it won’t tell you why. Despite its limitations, taking measures before and after the intervention is far better than no measures.

Even looking at something as seemingly simple to measure pre and post as blood pressure (in a heart disease prevention program) is questionable. Blood pressure may be lower at the final observation than at the initial one, but that tells you nothing about how much it may have gone up and down in between. If the readings were taken by different people, the change may be due in part to differences in their skill, or to how relaxed each was able to make participants feel. Familiarity with the program could also have reduced most participants’ blood pressure from the pre - to the post-measurement, as could some other factor that wasn’t specifically part of the independent variable being evaluated.

Interrupted time series design with a single group (simple time series)

An interrupted time series used repeated measures before and after delayed implementation of the independent variable (e. g. the program, etc.) to help rule out other explanations. This relatively strong design – with comparisons within the group – addresses most threats to internal validity.

The simplest form of this design is to take repeated observations, implement the program or intervention, and observe a number of times during the evaluation period, including at the end. This method is a great improvement over the pre - and post - design in that it tracks the trend of change, and can therefore, help see whether it was actually the independent variable that caused any change. It can also help to identify the influence of external factors such as when the dependent variable shows significant change before the intervention is implemented.

Another possibility for this design is to implement more than one independent variable, either by trying two or more, one after another (often with a break in between), or by adding each to what came before. This gives a picture not only of the progress of change, but can show very clearly what causes change. That gives an evaluator the opportunity not only to adjust the program, but to drop elements that have no effect.

There are a number of variations on the interrupted time series theme, including varying the observation times; implementing the independent variable repeatedly; and implementing one independent variable, then another, then both together to evaluate their interaction.

In any variety of interrupted time series design, it’s important to know what you’re looking for. In an evaluation of a traffic fatality control program in the United Kingdom that focused on reducing drunk driving, monthly measurements seemed to show only a small decline in fatal accidents. When the statistics for weekends, when there were most likely to be drunk drivers on the road, were separated out, however, they showed that the weekend fatality rate dropped sharply with the implementation of the program, and stayed low thereafter. Had the researchers not realized that that might be the case, the program might have been stopped, and the weekend accident rate would not have been reduced.

Interrupted time series design with multiple groups (multiple baseline/time series)

This has the same possibilities as the single time series design, with the added wrinkle of using repeated measures with one or more other groups (so-called multiple baselines). By using multiple baselines (groups), the external validity or generality of the findings is enhanced – we can see if the effects occur with different groups or under different conditions.

This multiple time series design – typically staggered introduction of the intervention with different groups or communities – gives the researcher more opportunities :

You can try a method or program with two or more groups from the same

You can try a particular method or program with different populations, to see if it’s effective with others

You can vary the timing or intensity of an intervention with different groups

You can test different interventions at the same time

You can try the same two or more interventions with each of two groups, but reverse their order to see if sequencing it makes any difference

Again, there are more variations possible here.

Control group design

A common way to evaluate the effects of an independent variable is to use a control group. This group is usually similar to the participant group, but either receives no intervention at all, or receives a different intervention with the same goal as that offered to the participant group. A control group design is usually the most difficult to set up – you have to find appropriate groups, observe both on a regular basis, etc. – but is generally considered to be the most reliable.

The term control group comes from the attempt to control outside and other influences on the dependent variable. If everything about the two groups except their exposure to the program being evaluated averages out to be the same, then any differences in results must be due to that exposure. The term comparison group is more modest; it typically offers a community watched for similar levels of the problem/goal and relevant characteristics of the community or population (e. g. education, poverty).

The gold standard here is the randomized control group, one that is selected totally at random, either from among the population the program or intervention is concerned with – those at risk for heart disease, unemployed males, young parents – or, if appropriate, the population at large. A random group eliminates the problems of selection we discussed above, as well as issues that might arise from differences in culture, race, or other factors.

A control group that’s carefully chosen will have the same characteristics as the intervention group (the focus of the evaluation). If, for instance, the two groups come from the same pool of people with a particular health condition, and are chosen at random either to be treated in the conventional way or to try a new approach, it can be assumed that – since they were chosen at random from the same population – both groups will be subject, on average, to the same outside influences, and will have the same diversity of backgrounds. Thus, if there is a significant difference in their results, it is fairly safe to assume that the difference comes from the independent variable – the type of intervention, and not something else.

The difficulty for governmental and community-based organizations is to find or create a randomized control group. If the program has a long waiting list, it may be able to create a control by selecting those to first receive the intervention at random. That in itself creates problems, in that people often drop off waiting lists out of frustration or other reasons. Being included in the evaluation may help to keep them, on the other hand, by giving them a closer connection to the program and making them feel valued.

An ESOL (English as a Second or Other Language) program in Boston with a three-year waiting list addressed the problem by offering those on the waiting list a different option. They received videotapes to use at home, along with biweekly tutoring by advanced students and graduates of the program. Thus, they became a comparison group with a somewhat different intervention that, as expected, was less effective than the program itself, but was more effective than none, and kept them on the waiting list. It also gave them a head start once they got into the classes, with many starting at a middle rather than at a beginning level.

When there’s no waiting list or similar group to draw from, community organizations often end up using a comparison group - one composed of participants in another place or program and whose members’ characteristics, backgrounds, and experience may or may not be similar to those of the participant group. That circumstance can raise some of the same problems related to selection seen when there is no control group. If the only potential comparisons involve very different groups, it may be better to use a design, such as an interrupted time series design that doesn’t involve a control group at all, where the comparison is within (not between) groups.

Groups may look similar, but may differ in an important way. Two groups of participants in a substance abuse intervention program, for instance, may have similar histories, but if one program is voluntary and the other is not, the results aren’t likely to be comparable. One group will probably be more motivated and less resentful than the other, and composed of people who already know they have a potential problem. The motivation and determination of their participants, rather than the effectiveness of the two programs, may influence the amount of change observed.

This issue may come up in a single-group design as well. A program that may, on average, seem to be relatively ineffective may prove, on close inspection, to be quite effective with certain participants – those of a specific educational background, for instance, or with particular life experiences. Looking at results with this in mind can be an important part of an evaluation, and give you valuable and usable information.

Choosing a design

This section’s discussion of research designs is in no way complete. It’s meant to provide an introduction to what’s available. There are literally thousands of books and articles written on this topic, and you’ll probably want more information. There are a number of statistical methods that can compensate for less-than-perfect designs, for instance: few community groups have the resources to assemble a randomized control group, or to implement two or more similar programs to see which works better.

Given this, the material that follows is meant only as broad guidelines. We don’t attempt to be specific about what kind of design you need in what circumstances, but only try to suggest some things to think about in different situations. Help is available from a number of directions: Much can be found on the Internet (see the “Resources” part of this section for a few sites); there are numerous books and articles (the classic text on research design is also cited in “Resources”); and universities are a great resource, both through their libraries and through faculty and graduate students who might be interested in what you’re doing, and be willing to help with your evaluation. Use any and all of these to find what will work best for you. Funders may also be willing either to provide technical assistance for evaluations, or to include money in your grant or contract specifically to pay for a professional evaluation.

Your goal in evaluating your effort is to get the most reliable and accurate information possible, given your evaluation questions, the nature of your program, what your participants will consent to, your time constraints, and your resources. The important thing here is not to set up a perfect research study, but to design your evaluation to get real information, and to be able to separate the effects of external factors from the effects of your program. So how do you go about choosing the best design that will be workable for you? The steps are in the first sentence of this paragraph.

Consider your evaluation questions

What do you need to know? If the intent of your evaluation is simply to see whether something specific happened, it’s possible that a simple pre-post design will do. If, as is more likely, you want to know both whether change has occurred, and if it has, whether it has in fact been caused by your program, you’ll need a design that helps to screen out the effects of external influences and participants’ backgrounds.

For many community programs, a control or comparison group is helpful, but not absolutely necessary. Think carefully about the frequency and timing of your observations and the amount of different kinds of information you can collect. With repeated measures, you can get you quite an accurate picture of the effectiveness of your program from a simple time series design. Single group interrupted time series designs, which are often the most workable for small organizations, can give you a very reliable evaluation if they’re structured well. That generally means obtaining multiple baseline observations (enough to set a trend) before the program begins; observing often and documenting your observations carefully (often with both quantitative – expressed in numbers – and qualitative – expressed in records of incidents and of what participants did and said – data); and including during intervention and follow-up observations to see whether effects are maintained.

In many of these situations, a multiple-group interrupted time series design is quite possible, but of a “naturally-occurring” experiment. If your program includes two or more groups or classes, each working toward the same goals, you have the opportunity to stagger the introduction of the intervention across the groups. This comparison with (and across) groups allows you to screen out such factors as the facilitator’s ability and community influences (assuming all participants come from the same general population.) You could also try different methods or time sequences, to see which works best.

In some cases, the real question is not whether your method or program works, but whether it works better than other methods or programs you could be using. Teaching a skill – for instance, employment training, parenting, diabetes management, conflict resolution – often falls into this category. Here, you need a comparison of some sort. While evaluations of some of these – medical treatment, for example – may require a control group, others can be compared to data from the field, to published results of other programs, or, by using community-level indicators, from measurements in other communities.

There are community programs where the bottom line is very simple. If you’re working to control water pollution, your main concern may be the amount of pollution coming out of effluent pipes, or the amount found in the river. Your only measure of success may be keeping pollution below a certain level, which means that regular monitoring of water quality is the only evaluation you need. There are probably relatively few community programs where evaluation is this easy – you might, for instance, want to know which of your pollution-control activities is most effective – but if yours is one, a simple design may be all you need.

Consider the nature of your program

What does your program look like, and what is it meant to do? Does it work with participants in groups, or individually, for instance? Does it run in cycles – classes or workshops that begin and end on certain dates, or a time-limited program that participants go through only once? Or can participants enter whenever they are ready and stay until they reach their goals? How much of the work of the program is dependent on staff, and how much do participants do on their own? How important is the program context – the way staff, participants, and others treat one another, the general philosophy of the program, the physical setting, the organizational culture? (The culture of an organization consists of accepted and traditional ways of doing things, patterns of relationships, how people dress, how they act toward and communicate with one another, etc.)

If you work with participants in groups, a multiple-group design – either interrupted time series or control group – might be easier to use. If you work with participants individually, perhaps a simple time series or a single group design would be appropriate.

If your program is time-limited – either one-time-only, or with sessions that follow one another – you’ll want a design that fits into the schedule, and that can give you reliable results in the time you have. One possibility is to use a multiple group design, with groups following one another session by session. The program for each group might be adjusted, based on the results for the group before, so that you could test new ideas each session.

If your program has no clear beginning and end, you’re more likely to need a single group design that considers participants individually, or by the level of their baseline performance. You may also have to compensate for the fact that participants may be entering the program at different levels, or with different goals.

A proverb says that you never step in the same river twice, because the water that flows past a fixed point is always changing. The same is true of most community programs. Someone coming into a program at a particular time may have a totally different experience than a similar person entering at a different time, even though the operation of the program is the same for both. A particular participant may encourage everyone around her, and create an overwhelmingly positive atmosphere different from that experienced by participants who enter the program after she has left, for example. It’s very difficult to control for this kind of difference over time, but it’s important to be aware that it can, and often does, exist, and may affect the results of a program evaluation.

If the organizational or program context and culture are important, then you’ll probably want to compare your results with participants to those in a control group in a similar situation where those factors are different, or are ignored.

There is, of course, a huge range of possibilities here: nearly any design can be adapted to nearly any situation in the right circumstances. This material is meant only to give you a sense of how to start thinking about the issue of design for an evaluation.

Consider what your participants (and staff) will consent to

In addition to the effect that it might have on the results of your evaluation, you might find that a lot of observation can raise protests from participants who feel their privacy is threatened, or from already-overworked staff members who see adding evaluation to their job as just another burden. You may be able to overcome these obstacles, or you may have to compromise – fewer or different kinds of observations, a less intrusive design – in order to be able to conduct the evaluation at all.

There are other reasons that participants might object to observation, or at least intense observation. Potential for embarrassment, a desire for secrecy (to keep their participation in the program from family members or others), even self-protection (in the case of domestic violence, for instance) can contribute to unwillingness to be a participant in the evaluation. Staff members may have some of the same concerns.

There are ways to deal with these issues, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll work. One is to inform participants at the beginning about exactly what you’re hoping to do, listen to their objections, and meet with them (more than once, if necessary) to come up with a satisfactory approach. Staff members are less likely to complain if they’re involved in planning the evaluation, and thus have some say over the frequency and nature of observations. The same is true for participants. Treating everyone’s concerns seriously and including them in the planning process can go a long way toward assuring cooperation.

Consider your time constraints

As we mentioned above, the important thing here is to choose a design that will give you reasonably reliable information. In general, your design doesn’t have to be perfect, but it does have to be good enough to give you a reasonably good indication that changes are actually taking place, and that they are the result of your program. Just how precise you can be is at least partially controlled by the limits on your time placed by funding, program considerations, and other factors.

Time constraints may also be imposed. Some of the most common:

Program structure . An evaluation may make the most sense if it’s conducted to correspond with a regular program cycle.

Funding . If you are funded only for a pilot project, for example, you’ll have to conduct your evaluation within the time span of the funding, and soon enough to show that your program is successful enough to be refunded. A time schedule for evaluation may be part of your grant or contract, especially if the funder is paying for it.

Participants’ schedules . A rural education program may need to stop for several months a year to allow participants to plant and tend crops, for instance.

The seriousness of the issue A delay in understanding whether a violence prevention program is effective may cost lives.

The availability of professional evaluators . Perhaps the evaluation team can only work during a particular time frame.

Consider your resources

Strategic planners often advise that groups and organizations consider resources last: otherwise they’ll reject many good ideas because they’re too expensive or difficult, rather than trying to find ways to make them work with the resources at hand. Resources include not only money, but also space, materials and equipment, personnel, and skills and expertise. Often, one of these can substitute for another: a staff person with experience in research can take the place of money that would be used to pay a consultant, for example. A partnership with a nearby university could get you not only expertise, but perhaps needed equipment as well.

The lesson here is to begin by determining the best design possible for your purposes, without regard to resources. You may have to settle for somewhat less, but if you start by aiming for what you want, you’re likely to get a lot closer to it than if you assume you can’t possibly get it.

In Summary

The way you design your evaluation research will have a lot to do with how accurate and reliable your results are, and how well you can use them to improve your program or intervention. The design should be one that best addresses key threats to internal validity (whether the intervention caused the change) and external validity (the ability to generalize your results to other situations, communities, and populations).

Common research designs – such as interrupted time series or control group designs – can be adapted to various situations, and combined in various ways to create a design that is both appropriate and feasible for your program. It may be necessary to seek help from a consultant, a university partner, or simply someone with research experience to help identify a design that fits your needs.

A good design will address your evaluation questions, and take into consideration the nature of your program, what program participants and staff will agree to, your time constraints, and the resources you have available for evaluation. It often makes sense to consider resources last, so that you won’t reject good ideas because they seem too expensive or difficult. Once you’ve chosen a design, you can often find a way around a lack of resources to make it a reality.

Online Section4selecting an appropriate design for the evaluation

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Please note that there is no guarantee that any stop loss order will be executed at the stop price. Therefore, there can be no guarantee that placing a stop order will limit losses or protect profits.

Do Not Bet the Farm

Do not over trade. One of the most common mistakes that traders make is leveraging their account too high by trading much larger sizes than their account should prudently trade. Leverage is a double-edged sword. Just because one lot (100,000 units) of currency only requires $1000 as a minimum margin deposit, it does not mean that a trader with $5000 in his account should be able to trade 5 lots. One lot is $100,000 and should be treated as a $100,000 investment and not the $1000 put up as margin. Most traders analyze the charts correctly and place sensible trades, yet they tend to over leverage themselves. As a consequence of this, they are often forced to exit a position at the wrong time. A good rule of thumb is to trade with 1-10 leverage or never use more than 10% of your account at any given time. Trading currencies is not easy (if it were, everyone would be a millionaire!).

Forex Glossary

Base currency is the first currency in the pair. Quote currency is the second currency in the pair.

USD/ JPY = 120.25

Base currency/Quote currency = Rate

This abbreviation specifies how much you have to pay in quote currency to obtain one unit of the base currency (in this example, 120.25 Japanese Yen for one US Dollar). The minimum rate fluctuation is called a point or pip.

Most currencies, except USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY where a pip is 0.01, have 4 digits after the period (a pip is 0.0001), and sometimes they are abbreviated to the last two digits. For example, if EURUSD is traded at 1.2389/1.2394 the quote may be abbreviated to 89/94.

The currency pairs on Forex are quoted as the Bid and Ask (or Offer) prices:

USD / JPY = 120.25 / 120.30

Bid is the rate at which you can sell the base currency, in our case it's US dollar, and buy the quote currency, i. e Japanese Yen.

Ask ( or Offer) is the rate at which you can buy the base currency, in our case US dollars, and sell the quote currency, i. e. Japanese Yen.

Spread is the difference between the Bid and the Ask price.

Pip is the smallest price increment a currency can make. Also known as a point. e. g. 1 pip = 0.0001 for EUR/USD, and 0.01 for USD/JPY.

Currency Rate is the value of one currency expressed in terms of another. The rate depends on the supply and demand on the market or restrictions by a government or by a central bank.

Lot Size is the number of base currency, underlying asset or shares in one lot defined in the contract specifications. For details refer to the Table 2.

Lot is an abstract notion of the number of base currency, shares or other underlying asset in the trading platform.

Transaction (or deal) size is lot size multiplied by number of lots.

Long Position is a buy position whereby you profit from an increase in price. In respect of currency pairs: buying the base currency against the quote currency.

Short Position is a sell position whereby you profit from a decrease in price. For currency pairs: selling the base currency against the quote currency.

Completed Transaction consists of two counter deals of the same size (open and close a position): buy then sell or vice versa.

Leverage is the term used to describe margin requirements: the ratio between the collateral and the value of the contract. 1:50leverage means that you can control $100,000 with only $2,000 (2%).

Margin is the collateral required to open and maintain a position.

Balance is the total financial result of all completed transactions and deposits/withdrawals on the trading account.

Floating Profit/Loss is current profit/loss on open positions calculated at the current prices.

Equity is calculated as balance + floating profit - floating loss.

Free margin means funds on the trading account, which may be used to open a position. It is calculated as equity less necessary margin.


Do not risk money that you cannot afford to lose. This method cannot be guaranteed to make profits in the short term and past performance is no guarantee of success. The Original Turtle Trading System is a long term trading method requiring patience and discipline.



Online Russell sands forex educational training course

Why you must start mini forex trading

Why you must start mini forex tradingWhy you must start Mini Forex Trading

As you know Forex Market is risky and traders are not successful to make profit from their currency trading so now i will show you how you can become a successful and experienced trader so read this article to the end .

There are several different trading style for several traders like Demo. Micro or Mini and standard accounts but now we focus on Mini Forex accounts because Mini Trading is good for most of traders with small amount of money .

Another advantages for Mini Trading is you can open your account with most of brokers and there is no restriction on mini accounts. Most of mini brokers support you to open your account because almost all traders interested in mini accounts however the amount you invest in their broker is low .

Most of Mini Forex Brokers provide you high leverage even sometimes you can get 1:500, So you dont need to invest alot of money because you can use big leverage then there is no need to invest alot of money while you have big leverage.

Brokers provide you fast execution on Mini or Micro Forex accounts however you dont have this advantage on standard accounts because on Mini Trading you choose lower lot size than the standard one so the brokers can match your positions much more faster than the standard ones, but on big amounts like standard accounts your lot sizes are bigger than Mini Trading so brokers need more time to match your positions with other brokers, even sometimes you get 1 minute delay on standard account and you force to pay much more pips to your broker but on Mini Trading you wont have any delay on your positions at all .

Although Mini trading has much more advantages from standard one but there are some dis advantages on mini accounts like wider spreads, because almost most of Mini Brokers get more spread on mini and Micro Forex accounts than the standard one, For example if you pay 1 pip on Euro Vs U. S Dollar pair but you must pay 2 or 3 pip on mini or micro accounts .

The profit you get on mini accounts are smaller than standard accounts because you trade with lower lot sizes or lower amount of money and this is not good for full time traders but if you are a newbie trader, the micro or mini trading is good for you because if you lose your money you can invest another amount immediately and start make profit .

There are a lot source like Fxstay or forexSQ but if you want more information about Forex Mini accounts click on link below :

Mini Forex

Online Why you must start mini forex trading

What are pips in forex

What are pips in forexWhat are Pips in Forex

Pip = "price interest point". A pip measures the amount of change in the exchange rate for a currency pair. For currency pairs displayed to four decimal places, one pip is equal to 0.0001. Yen-based currency pairs are an exception and are displayed to only two decimal places (0.01). Some brokers now offer fractional pips to provide an extra digit of precision when quoting exchange rates for certain currency pairs. A fractional pip is equivalent to 1/10 of a pip.

OANDA introduced fractional pips - or "pipettes" - to allow for tighter spreads on certain currency pairs. For instance, it is possible to view the EUR/USD currency pair with pipettes (i. e. five decimal places), while currency pairs with the yen as the quote currency can be viewed to three decimal places instead of the default two decimal places.

Determining Pip Value

The monetary value of each pip depends on three factors: the currency pair being traded, the size of the trade, and the exchange rate.

Based on these factors, the fluctuation of even a single pip can have a significant impact on the value of the open position.

For example, assume that a $300,000 trade involving the USD/CAD pair is closed at 1.0568 after gaining 20 pips. To calculate the profit in U. S. dollars, complete the following steps:

Determine the number of CAD each pip represents by multiplying the amount of the trade by 1 pip as follows:

300,000 x 0.0001 = 30 CAD per pip

Divide the number of CAD per pip by the closing exchange rate to arrive at the number of USD per pip:

Multiply the number of pips gained, by the value of each pip in USD to arrive at the total loss / profit for the trade:

20 x 28.39 = $567.80 USD profit

What are Pips in Forex

Pip = "price interest point". A pip measures the amount of change in the exchange rate for a currency pair. For currency pairs displayed to four decimal places, one pip is equal to 0.0001. Yen-based currency pairs are an exception and are displayed to only two decimal places (0.01). Some brokers now offer fractional pips to provide an extra digit of precision when quoting exchange rates for certain currency pairs. A fractional pip is equivalent to 1/10 of a pip.

OANDA introduced fractional pips - or "pipettes" - to allow for tighter spreads on certain currency pairs. For instance, it is possible to view the EUR/USD currency pair with pipettes (i. e. five decimal places), while currency pairs with the yen as the quote currency can be viewed to three decimal places instead of the default two decimal places.

Determining Pip Value

The monetary value of each pip depends on three factors: the currency pair being traded, the size of the trade, and the exchange rate.

Based on these factors, the fluctuation of even a single pip can have a significant impact on the value of the open position.

For example, assume that a $300,000 trade involving the USD/CAD pair is closed at 1.0568 after gaining 20 pips. To calculate the profit in U. S. dollars, complete the following steps:

Determine the number of CAD each pip represents by multiplying the amount of the trade by 1 pip as follows:

300,000 x 0.0001 = 30 CAD per pip

Divide the number of CAD per pip by the closing exchange rate to arrive at the number of USD per pip:

Multiply the number of pips gained, by the value of each pip in USD to arrive at the total loss / profit for the trade:

20 x 28.39 = $567.80 USD profit

What are Pips in Forex

Pip = "price interest point". A pip measures the amount of change in the exchange rate for a currency pair. For currency pairs displayed to four decimal places, one pip is equal to 0.0001. Yen-based currency pairs are an exception and are displayed to only two decimal places (0.01). Some brokers now offer fractional pips to provide an extra digit of precision when quoting exchange rates for certain currency pairs. A fractional pip is equivalent to 1/10 of a pip.

OANDA introduced fractional pips - or "pipettes" - to allow for tighter spreads on certain currency pairs. For instance, it is possible to view the EUR/USD currency pair with pipettes (i. e. five decimal places), while currency pairs with the yen as the quote currency can be viewed to three decimal places instead of the default two decimal places.

Determining Pip Value

The monetary value of each pip depends on three factors: the currency pair being traded, the size of the trade, and the exchange rate.

Based on these factors, the fluctuation of even a single pip can have a significant impact on the value of the open position.

For example, assume that a $300,000 trade involving the USD/CAD pair is closed at 1.0568 after gaining 20 pips. To calculate the profit in U. S. dollars, complete the following steps:

Determine the number of CAD each pip represents by multiplying the amount of the trade by 1 pip as follows:

300,000 x 0.0001 = 30 CAD per pip

Divide the number of CAD per pip by the closing exchange rate to arrive at the number of USD per pip:

Multiply the number of pips gained, by the value of each pip in USD to arrive at the total loss / profit for the trade:

20 x 28.39 = $567.80 USD profit

Online What are pips in forex

Trading strategies for low volatility

Trading strategies for low volatilityLow volatility trading strategies list of penny stock market makers

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Where does your strategy fit in? The 4 potential scenarios

Whether it is choosing an automated trading strategy that you want to follow or building your own trading methodology, understanding and defining the risk parameters and finding a methodology that fits your personal level of risk-tolerance is of great importance for long-lasting success. When it comes to describing trading methodologies in terms of volatility and risk, there are 4 potential scenarios.

Disclaimer: Regardless of any assumptions, There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Futures trading involves significant leverage and may lead to large gains or large losses beyond the principle invested.

#1 Low volatility and high risk

This combination is particularly dangerous because it usually describes trading systems that have performed well in the past and have not been exposed to adverse and changing market conditions. For example, in a long-lasting bull market a trader buys every dip and even when the trade goes against him, he adds to a losing position to bring down the average price. This strategy may work well in a strong trending bull market, but once market conditions change and a shift from a bull to a bear market happens, a trader may continue to add to a losing position until he wipes out all of his trading account with one trade.

Another example of a low volatility, high risk trading strategy would be selling out of the money options. Such a system may have long periods of small winners by collecting the fees from the option buyer, but one trade that goes against him may threaten his whole trading account because of the unlimited loss potential when being the seller of options.

#2 Low volatility and low risk

Such a trading strategy is defined by a strict and disciplined risk and position sizing approach. For example, a trader always chooses to risk 1% of his total account on any given trade and his potential profit is 1.5%. Furthermore, we assume that he does not violate risk management principles such as widening stop loss orders or taking off stops completely. The outcome of all his trades may look very similar and low volatility and low risk may indeed exist in such an environment.

Risk describes the occurrence, or the possibility, of encountering relatively large losses which may impose significant threats to a trading account. A low risk trading methodology, therefore, is less likely to experience such losses and account development is rather steady.

#3 High volatility and high risk

This combination is often how trading strategies of inexperienced traders and traders who are looking for “a quick buck” are characterized.

The high risk aspect comes from potential large losses which are mainly caused by mismanaging risk and giving in to impulsive trading decisions. As mentioned earlier, not trading with a stop loss, widening stop loss orders, adding to a losing position, revenge-trading or over-trading are all things which expose a trader to great risk and potentially large losses.

The high volatility of such trading is described by the large account swings such traders are likely to experience. When taking positions that are relatively large, compared to the overall account size, and undisciplined and impulsive trading come together, the account development may experience large swings and great ups and downs.

# 4 High volatility and low risk

A trading methodology with such risk and volatility parameters is the opposite of the first one and we can describe this scenario by explaining the position of the trader that takes the opposite side of the trade of trader #1.

A trader who cuts his losses very fast and operates with tight stops may be stopped out frequently and may also have periods of relatively long, but consistent, losing streaks. However, his goal is to capitalize on the few big winning trades and ride them for as long as possible.

The buyer of out of the money options has a similar risk profile. He pays the premium for the options and most of the times he will not be able to exercise the option and has to take a loss. But, due to the unlimited profit potential as an option buyer, only a few winning trades may offset past losses rather quickly.

Conclusion: Due your due diligence and find what suits your personality

Before following a trading strategy, it is indispensable to thoroughly evaluate the risk parameters to reveal potential deficiencies of a trading strategy. Even a seemingly well performing trading strategy could expose the trader to significant risks.

Furthermore, even a trading strategy with low risk and high volatility may not be suited for all traders because of the emotional challenges that come with enduring long losing streaks and still being able to perform at a high level. It is therefore important to audit yourself and see which type of risk is suited based on your personality.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading commodity interests can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.

Calm down, everyone: Low volatility investing strategies are killing it

The once-enshrined investing maxim that there’s no high reward without high risk is getting a serious rethink these days from both finance academics and stock market investors. As I noted earlier this month, the conventional wisdom that volatility creates attractive investing opportunities isn’t always the case if you examine the historical data.

According to a report (.pdf) by Wells Capital Management published last month, the market has seen long stretches between 1992 and 1996, or between 2003 and 2007—when stocks performed well yet volatility was relatively low. Right now, we are in one of these relative periods of calm:

Back in 2011, Brendan Bradley of Acadian Asset Management, along with Harvards Malcolm Baker and NYUs Jeffrey Wurgler, published a widely cited study in the Financial Analysts Journal on the returns of low-volatility stocks. (Here’s a direct link to the study.)

According to their research, the least-volatile quintile of the 1,000 biggest stocks in the U. S. returned 10.2% annually from 1968 to 2010. In contrast, the most-volatile quintile gained just 6.6%.

In October, Tadas Viskanta at Abnormal Returns took note of the growing popularity of low volatility trading strategies and the low volatility anomaly that seemed to be boosting their performance.

In a piece out today, Bloomberg points to the remarkable success of the PowerShares SP 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV). which is designed for protection from stock market swings. Since its debut nearly two years ago (May 5, 2011), the exchange-traded fund has gained 30 percent vs. 21 percent for the SP 500 Index. It has attracted $4.1 billion in assets.

Of course, traders with a short-term horizon still love stocks that display big daily moves. And Bespoke Investment Group late month published this useful list of SP 1500 with the biggest intra-day trading ranges so far in 2013. They include 3D Systems (DDD). JC Penney (JCP). Netflix (NFLX) and Geospace Technologies (GEOS) .

If you are intrigued by volatility-based trading strategies, check out:

LakeViews High Dividend, Low Volatility model. which holds stocks and ETFs that produce above-market average dividends while exhibiting below-market average volatility. Its current indicative yield is 4.72% (as of 3/20/13, data from Bloomberg).

Robert Zingale’s Covestor Volatility Mean Reversion model. In his latest commentary. Robert outlines his trading strategy should the market become more choppy in the months ahead.

This entry was posted by Xavier Brenner on Thursday, March 21st, 2013 7:19am and is filed under Best of the Web. Outlook. And relates to the stock symbols DDD.

Online Trading strategies for low volatility

Free forex harmonic pattern indicator

Free forex harmonic pattern indicatorA brief introduction

Harmonic Trading is a methodology that utilizes the recognition of specific price patterns and the alignment of exact Fibonacci ratios to determine highly probable reversal points in the financial markets. This methodology assumes that trading patterns or cycles, like many patterns and cycles in life, repeat themselves. The key is to identify these patterns, and to enter or to exit a position based upon a high degree of probability that the same historic price action will occur. Although these patterns are not 100% accurate, these situations have been historically proven. If these set-ups are identified correctly, it is possible to identify significant opportunities with a very limited risk.

The Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)

The concept of the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) was originally outlined by Scott M. Carney in his book, "The Harmonic Trader".

History has proven that a convergence of Fibonacci numbers and price patterns provides a highly probable area for a reversal. This area of convergence is called the potential reversal zone. When three, four, or even five numbers come together within a specific area, you must respect the high probability for some type of reversal. - Scott M. Carney (The Harmonic Trader)

A Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) represents the critical areas where the flow of buying and selling is potentially changing. These harmonic zones attempt to identify the price levels where imbalanced overbought and oversold situations are reversing back to their respective equilibrium level.

An ideal reversal usually tests all of the price levels in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) on the initial test. The predominant trend usually reverses from this initial test of the entire PRZ and continues in the reversal direction shortly thereafter. In an ideal reversal, the price bar that tests all of the fibonacci projections in the PRZ is called the Terminal Price Bar .

The trade must be taken when the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) has been tested and rejected by a Terminal Price Bar or a strong breakout has taken place in the reversal direction without testing all the PRZ levels. The farthest price level of the PRZ or the Point X of the pattern are suitable stop-loss levels.

Harmonic Trading Ratios

The indicator calculates all the important fibonacci ratios for the XA and BC vectors of the pattern, and plots them by the Point D if applicable.

Primary Ratios Directly derived from the Fibonnaci Number Sequence.

- 0.618 = Primary Ratio

Complementary Derived Ratios - 0.382 = (1 - 0.618) or 0.618e2

About Terry Tan Founder and Director of HarmonicForex

Terry is a professional Forex fund manager and educator from Singapore. He is widely considered The Authority of Harmonic Trading in Asia. He runs his flagship HarmonicForex Ratio Trading Mastery (RTM) courses with his team for the past 4 years in Singapore.

Terry was also recently featured as the youngest speaker at InvestFair 2015 . Singapores premier Investment Fair to share about Harmonic Trading.

Trader, are you looking for FREE quality video analysis, market preview or promotions from HarmonicForex?

© 2011 Scott Shubert, All Rights Reserved.

Unauthorized duplication or publication of any materials from this site is expressly prohibited.

The opinions expressed in the interviews, comments and testimonials are not necessarily those of Scott Shubert or Trading Mastermind.

Results will vary. There is no gaurantee of income. Results shown are not typical. There is a risk of loss in trading Forex. It is quite possible that you may never learn how to trade if you do not have patience, discipline, motivation, and a positive attitude. Typical results are consistent losses, failure to enter trades when entry signals occur, entering trades when entry signals are not happening, discouragement, frustration, impatience, and giving up trading completely after a short time rather than continuing to work until mastery is achieved. If you intend to succeed in Forex trading you will be getting results that are not typical and doing what most traders are not doing. Trading is not usually mastered in less than 1 or 2 years.

Risk Disclosure:

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This letter is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this letter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Trading foreign currencies is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.

There is considerable exposure to risk in any foreign exchange transaction. Any transaction involving currencies involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency.

More over, the leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. Investors may lower their exposure to risk by employing risk-reducing strategies such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders.


No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. Hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.

All information on this website or any product/trading system purchased from this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold Scott Shubert and Trading MasterMind harmless in any and all ways.

Online Free forex harmonic pattern indicator

Staff training checklist-to do list for staff training

Staff training checklist-to do list for staff trainingStaff training checklist - To Do List for Staff Training

1. Responsibilities of Training Officer

1.1 Estimating current skill level of staff

1.2 Developing and implementing in-service corporate training program

1.3 Planning and scheduling training

1.4 Using financial, technical and other company resources in developing and providing staff training

1.5 Ensuring that training records are up to date, complete and accurate

1.6 Providing new workers with general orientation prior to duty assignment

2. General Information

2.1 Defining training goals and scope

2.2 Documentation

2.2.1 Creating and approving training documents

2.2.2 Specifying the source where training documents are stored

2.2.3 Providing acronyms and abbreviations used in documents and meaning of each

2.3 References, sources and contacts

2.3.1 Providing training references and sources that were used in training program

2.3.2 Providing a contacts list of all persons involved in the training preparation and implementation

2.3.3 Proving a contact list of all organizations that take part in training process (e. g. installation, coordination, engineering, security, etc.)

2.4 General Training Prerequisites

2.4.1 Briefly recapitulate the general training prerequisites for training process

3. Selecting Training methods

3.1 Setting training requirements

3.2 Defining roles and responsibilities

3.3 Selecting training techniques and tools

3.3.1 Describe the training techniques to be used

3.3.2 Defining tools required for the training (PC workstations, training guides, online resources, etc.)

3.3.3 Approving selected training techniques and tools

3.4 Drawing up training schedule and curriculum

3.4.1 Defining start and finish dates of training

3.4.2 Appointing date and time of meeting to discuss curriculum

4. Indication and Evaluation

4.1 Detecting feedback

4.1.1 Describing how employees understand the training objectives by collecting feedback

4.1.2 Ensuring that training objectives.

Order 750 checklists in MS Word and PDF printable format at $49.99 USD only.

Online Staff training checklist-to do list for staff training

Forex tutorial how to trade&open aforex account

Forex tutorial how to trade&open aforex accountForex Tutorial: How To Trade & Open A Forex Account

So, you think you are ready to trade? Make sure you read this section to learn how you can go about setting up a forex account so that you can start trading currencies. We'll also mention other factors that you should be aware of before you take this step. We will then discuss how to trade forex and the different types of orders that can be placed.

Opening A Forex Brokerage Account

Trading forex is similar to the equity market because individuals interested in trading need to open up a trading account. Like the equity market, each forex account and the services it provides differ, so it is important that you find the right one. Below we will talk about some of the factors that should be considered when selecting a forex account.

Leverage is basically the ability to control large amounts of capital, using very little of your own capital; the higher the leverage, the higher the level of risk. The amount of leverage on an account differs depending on the account itself, but most use a factor of at least 50:1, with some being as high as 250:1. A leverage factor of 50:1 means that for every dollar you have in your account you control up to $50. For example, if a trader has $1,000 in his or her account, the broker will lend that person $50,000 to trade in the market. This leverage also makes your margin, or the amount you have to have in the account to trade a certain amount, very low. In equities, margin is usually at least 50%, while the leverage of 50:1 is equivalent to 2%.

Leverage is seen as a major benefit of forex trading, as it allows you to make large gains with a small investment. However, leverage can also be an extreme negative if a trade moves against you because your losses also are amplified by the leverage. With this kind of leverage, there is the real possibility that you can lose more than you invested - although most firms have protective stops preventing an account from going negative. For this reason, it is vital that you remember this when opening an account and that when you determine your desired leverage you understand the risks involved.

Commissions and Fees

Another major benefit of forex accounts is that trading within them is done on a commission-free basis. This is unlike equity accounts, in which you pay the broker a fee for each trade. The reason for this is that you are dealing directly with market makers and do not have to go through other parties like brokers.

This may sound too good to be true, but rest assured that market makers are still making money each time you trade. Remember the bid and ask from the previous section? Each time a trade is made, it is the market makers that capture the spread between these two. Therefore, if the bid/ask for a foreign currency is 1.5200/50, the market maker captures the difference (50 basis points).

If you are planning on opening a forex account, it is important to know that each firm has different spreads on foreign currency pairs traded through them. While they will often differ by only a few pips (0.0001), this can be meaningful if you trade a lot over time. So when opening an account make sure to find out the pip spread that it has on foreign currency pairs you are looking to trade.

Other Factors

There are a lot of differences between each forex firm and the accounts they offer, so it is important to review each before making a commitment. Each company will offer different levels of services and programs along with fees above and beyond actual trading costs. Also, due to the less regulated nature of the forex market, it is important to go with a reputable company. (For more information on what to look for when opening an account, read Wading Into The Currency Market . If you are not ready to open a "real money" account but want to try your hand at forex trading, read Demo Before You Dive In .)

How to Trade Forex

Now that you know some important factors to be aware of when opening a forex account, we will take a look at what exactly you can trade within that account. The two main ways to trade in the foreign currency market is the simple buying and selling of currency pairs, where you go long one currency and short another. The second way is through the purchasing of derivatives that track the movements of a specific currency pair. Both of these techniques are highly similar to techniques in the equities market. The most common way is to simply buy and sell currency pairs, much in the same way most individuals buy and sell stocks. In this case, you are hoping the value of the pair itself changes in a favorable manner. If you go long a currency pair, you are hoping that the value of the pair increases. For example, let's say that you took a long position in the USD/CAD pair - you will make money if the value of this pair goes up, and lose money if it falls. This pair rises when the U. S. dollar increases in value against the Canadian dollar, so it is a bet on the U. S. dollar.

The other option is to use derivative products, such as options and futures, to profit from changes in the value of currencies. If you buy an option on a currency pair, you are gaining the right to purchase a currency pair at a set rate before a set point in time. A futures contract, on the other hand, creates the obligation to buy the currency at a set point in time. Both of these trading techniques are usually only used by more advanced traders, but it is important to at least be familiar with them. (For more on this, try Getting Started in Forex Options and our tutorials, Option Spread Strategies and Options Basics Tutorial .)

Types of Orders

A trader looking to open a new position will likely use either a market order or a limit order. The incorporation of these order types remains the same as when they are used in the equity markets. A market order gives a forex trader the ability to obtain the currency at whatever exchange rate it is currently trading at in the market, while a limit order allows the trader to specify a certain entry price. (For a brief refresher of these orders, see The Basics of Order Entry .)

Forex traders who already hold an open position may want to consider using a take-profit order to lock in a profit. Say, for example, that a trader is confident that the GBP/USD rate will reach 1.7800, but is not as sure that the rate could climb any higher. A trader could use a take-profit order, which would automatically close his or her position when the rate reaches 1.7800, locking in their profits.

Another tool that can be used when traders hold open positions is the stop-loss order. This order allows traders to determine how much the rate can decline before the position is closed and further losses are accumulated. Therefore, if the GBP/USD rate begins to drop, an investor can place a stop-loss that will close the position (for example at 1.7787), in order to prevent any further losses.

As you can see, the type of orders that you can enter in your forex trading account are similar to those found in equity accounts. Having a good understanding of these orders is critical before placing your first trade.

Online Forex tutorial how to trade&open aforex account

Free forex training

Free forex trainingThe Forex Trading Book With 8 Steps To Become A Successful Forex Trader

Virtually all people wished to achieve success in currency trading, but has anyone planned on the path being a profitable currency exchange investor? I feel not quite a few. If you have not or not sure tips on how to strategize, here would be the actions that may lead you towards the path of accomplishment in currency trading:

1: Get yourself a forex trading book or forex trading program to start with, so which you can comprehend the basics of forex trading and the way todo the job. For those who have gotten your free forex trading book by Daniel Su, you need to have the opportunity to have an understanding of what currency trading is about.

2: Open a free of charge currency demo(practice) account with most forex brokers on the web.

#3: This really is an critical factor. Be sure you study the psychology portion and money management principles of currency trading prior to you start out on demo trading. be aware, always commence with excellent behaviors. Getting rid of poor routines is very much tougher than to build great practices.

Step 4: Following youve got gone through the complete forex trading book or currency program, you might almost certainly understand how a foreign exchange trading process functions. Furthermore, the free forex trading method in the forex trading book is effortless to know. So lets get useful and observe it on the demo account. Observe makes perfect!

Step 5: Demo trade for about a few weeks right up until you receive used on the forex trading program. In case you have formulated some unhealthy behavior along the way in which, carry on demo foreign exchange trading until finally you can rid of them, you dont intend to make these mistakes after you go live with real money trading! I would advise students to go live trading only once they hit successful percent of 70% and better.

6: You need to be previously quite steady within your demo trading when you might have arrive to this phase. Open a real money foreign exchange trading forex account, either a mini trading account or a standard trading account. I realize that many traders begin off with mini account initial so as to build their confidence. That is certainly absolutely alright, but usually do not get caught in mini forex account for too long as you might have psychological barrier to go and overcome. Move on to standard trading trading accounts when you are feeling assured, steadily making profits during your currency trading.

Step 7: Enhance your trading account lot size slowly as your trading abilities improve. You may well wish to boost it when you might have 30% ROI(return on investment) in your currency trading accounts. Refer and study your money management rules on the way you can keep growing your trading lot size.

8: At this juncture of time, youre a effective currency investor when you have regular profits each month. You do not have being a institutional dealer to be successful! And you perhaps need to begin preparing and taking into consideration to generally be a time foreign exchange dealer from right here onwards.

The previously mentioned steps may possibly sound easy, but trust me, its difficult in the least, or else why 95% of the individuals failed in foreign exchange trading? So you actually must drill about the psychological, self-discipline and money management parts before it is possible to go far in foreign exchange trading.

Top 3 Mistakes To Avoid When You Day Trade Forex

Day trading is classified as any transaction of a currency pair inside of one evening. The currency trading market is where by individuals commerce foreign currencies to get paid money.

Forex day traders are the top in line of forex trading. Some of the traders have day trade forex for some time and its easy for them to make consistent profits. However, not all the day traders can make profits from the market consistently even though they work very hard everyday trading. In the forex trading market, day traders are essentially needed so that they add liquidity to the market. In fact, if there are not many traders who are day trading, then it will be quite quite a chore for forex brokers to find sellers and buyers at a very short period of time.

However, trading forex involves significant risk and its not for everyone, let alone day trading because day trading demands more discipline and skills. First of all, you must have a thorough knowledge of the forex market and all its complexities. This is because you are not competing only against yourself, you are pitting your skills against many other institutionals and professional traders who are highly skilled in trading. Remember the forex market is a zero sum game, its either you win or the other part loses. So you must be able to know the market conditions like what they know. Dont be fooled by systems being sold that promise you to make lots of money in the book du jour. There is no get rich quick scheme hiding in those pages! You need to understand it all perfectly in order to succeed.

Second factor, if you want to make a living out of trading forex, then youll need a considerable large capital and not just few hundreds dollars can do the job. Many institutions, banks and professional traders day trade forex with large capital. They can command large sums of money on a daily basis. With a small investment, you just dont stand that much of a chance of big returns. In forex trading, it may be the case that youll need money to make more money unfortunately. Large market swings in any 24-hour period are highly unusual, so large profits only come from large investments. So make sure your mindset is right before you even decide to start day trade forex. If you think you can make a fortune in the market almost instantly, then you may be disappointed. Always remember not to risk more than what you can afford to. Although you may only have a smaller capital to trade, the gains can accumulate over time and thats how you grow your trading account. You still need the knowledge and proper money management that good forex trading system can provide.

Last but not least, youll always need to have a trading plan before you even look at the charts. During the learning process, you may come across some forex trading strategies and currency trading systems that you can use to day trade forex successfully. The important thing is to learn from them and come up with your own rules and methods that suit your trading style. There are some systems that are proven to make money and they are swing trading systems, hedging systems and news trading systems. Go ahead with the system that you think that suits your style.

There are more and more demand for foreign exchange trading nowadays and the trend has been rising fast. This has raised some controversy. Some people will advice you to stay away as far as possible when the word forex is mentioned. Others say that day trading is the only way to make a substantial income in the forex trading markets. Two things are certain: 1) Beginners/amateurs would be best off leaving the forex day trading market to the professionals and 2) Day traders provide the liquidity the forex needs to exist.

Always have a mind of caution when you decide to day trade forex, have the right education first.

Four Simple Techniques To Day Trade Forex In Volatile Markets

Fx trading will not move in the same direction all of the time. In actuality, we will experience choppy markets or some referred to as whipsaws markets for many times. Choppy market is in which the price of the currencies moves considerably up or lower and may well look identical to start of of a fresh trend in early stages. But instead of continuing the trend, the price of currencies may possibly suddenly dive back down for your entry level and may trigger your stop loss.

I believe it really is a challenge for a lot of people who day trade forex, especially those that are new to forex trading. Why is it so? The reason is they may not find a way to determine what sort of market is that and may well be unable to resist the temptation to make a few pips from the false swift price actions. So how to trade fx in this sort of circumstances? Below are some important fx trading tips:

1. Don’t assume a extensive swing strategy or any sustained price movements if youre previously in an open position, get some profits out when you have produced some from the currency trading market or shift it to the breakeven price as quickly as you possibly can. This may lessen the possibility of losing that position.

2. Once the fx markets are choppy and you also truly must trade, it is safer to trade all those currency pairs which are very correlated. Examples of remarkably correlated fx pairs are EUR/USD with USD/CHF, and EUR/GBP with GBP/CHF. This suggests if EUR/USD falls, USD/CHF will climb, and vice versa. It normally occurs 95% in the time on hourly charts. So you must seem with the support and resistance levels pertaining to EUR/USD and USD/CHF in case you are to trade either one of several currency pairs, to assist you in making a right conclusion.

3. You must refer to the calendar of financial announcements every now and then in currency trading. Sometimes a volatile market takes place when theres two or a lot more financial data releasing for the same time or inside a few hours. A particular information might set off an up movement although the other like scenario may perhaps set off a down movement. As a result it can be a bad time to trade fx as you will not know precisely where the foreign exchange market is moving.

4. At times if the foreign exchange dealing market is choppy, it forms range-trading channels, which sets one up for any breakout. If there is is no indication on which direction the currency market is like to move, forex traders may possibly go long when it is consolidating around the bottom range, and short when it truly is on the top range. This may perhaps generate you some pips, but again, it truly is superior to wait around for currency price to break out from within the range-trading channels making sure that ideally you can have the ability to catch the breakout trend.

Though those above can allow you to to counter choppy markets, I nonetheless must say that if the foreign exchange industry is specially ruthless, it really is very best that one merely walk away and wait for a different excellent trading possibility. Here is an additional tip for you that may perhaps help: Unless there are some fundamental motives to drive the currency markets, just like news release and so on, possibly you are going to be looking in a market that is not trending at all.

How A Forex Trading Program Can Turn You From A Slumpdog To A Millionaire

What are most beginner traders really searching for in a forex trading program, to ensure it can support them accomplish their dreams of producing millions from currency trading? I would say that a excellent forex trading program would have consist of currency trading fundamentals, technical analysis specific to the currency forex market, fundamental evaluation, trading psychology. currency trading techniques, cash management principles, currency trading glossary, how to pick currency trading broker and so forth.

Some from the contents of a forex trading program offers forex trading tutorial to prepare you as you progress towards being a expert in the global currency trading arena, so that you will know the best way to trade forex within a shorter time and assist you to become a effective and excellent currency trader who can make money consistently from the forex market. Along the way, you will acquire an knowing of how foreign exchange prices move and how you can create your own trading method. Some guides comprise foreign currency trading ideas, that is crucial for all those that are new to trading, but also adds value to sophisticated traders too. Therefore, some forex trading programs in fact provide good training of both not so experienced as well as sophisticated traders.

Lets zoom in into some of the contents that are provided in a foreign currency trading information. Essentially, it is possible to uncover contents such as the mechanics and introduction to foreign currency trading, how to be a professional foreign currency trader and so on from the currency trading basics section. You should foreign currency technical analysis that helps you to be capable to study forex charts, understanding and use of Fibonacci levels, major support and resistance levels and so forth.

And if you are a trader that cant help but to feel great emotional whenever you win or lose money while youre trading? If you are, the trading psychology component is crucial as it will teach you how you can better manage your emotions, how you can overcome greed and so forth with regards to trading in a fast moving currency forex market.

You might come across that most people who only look for trading techniques whenever they sign up for a forex trading program, be it foreign currency course, an free forex ebook downloaded from the internet, or even a forex trading tutorial. Why is the fact that so?

You see, most folks thought that they could profit with all the trading technique alone, which is untrue as they must learn to master money management and manage their emotions as well!

There are lots of currency trading techniques out there in the world, but youve to come across one that fits your personality. There are techniques like currency trading scalping, forex trading trend trading, breakout method and also many others. Just search Google using the keyword forex trading and youll find hundreds of so-called perfect forex solutions.

It is common to see traders using automated forex dealing being a forex trading software program will trade for them with out getting to open and close a trade manually. Obviously, there are disadvantages in many of these automated currency trading products that you should look out for. Bottomline is never buy one that promises you returns that sound too good to be true!

So by the time you could have gone via every thing in the forex trading program, provided that guide is not a slumdog, and also have found your trading method with money management, discipline and management of your feelings, you should be ready for making income trading currency trading online and you may one day become a millionaire forex trader.

Ten Reasons That are Stopping You From Lucrative Forex Trading

Have you ever wondered why is it that extremely couple of traders succeed in the fx trading market whilst 90% of forex traders fall short to obtain success? Under are 10 important good reasons:

1) Trying to find Simple and Quick Money

I have to anxiety that fx trading is not a get rich fast scheme. Achieving constant worthwhile outcomes out of forex trading is difficult. It needs some foreign currency training, persistence, discipline, emotion manage, and so forth. to get you to the world of prosperous currency trading.

2) In search of the Holy Grail

Ive people asked me, What may be the finest foreign exchange trading method around? There isnt such trading techniques in forex trading. Many forex traders spend years wanting to discover the Holy Grail of foreign currency trading, but failed to discover a single. The principal reason may be the foreign currency market changes every single solitary moment.

3) Inadequate Correct Training

One of the factors forex traders fall short is due to the fact they really do not have sufficient correct education. Some people who came into foreign exchange trading really dont even open a forex trading book or educate themselves about foreign currency exchanging. You will need particular forex trading education, a fx course, a foreign currency trading system and then a mentor to coach you.

4) Insufficient Discipline

Self-control is so significant in forex trading that it is going to reward you by accumulating your income in case you abide to it, and could turn your fx trading account into nothing when you lack of it.

5) Insufficient Endurance

Foreign currency traders chase right after the price due to the fact they do not desire to miss a golden trading chance. In currency exchange trading, there is no such point as golden possibility to me since every single forex trading setups are equally crucial.

6) No Cash Management

Most forex traders absolutely overlook about the chance of foreign currency trading. They only think about how very much theyll win and by no means strategy for that worst. Income management limits your risk on each and every individual trade to ensure that youre capable to trade tomorrow, the following week, month and many years.

7) Failure to Manage Emotions

Be a perfectionist in next your foreign exchange trading program. Stay calm should you lost a trade, you realize that youll find infinite probabilities to earn an winning opportunity back. Do not let greed take above you!

8) Getting Unrealistic Expectations

Individuals arrive into currency exchange trading thinking they are heading to be effective and generate tons of money, from $1,000 after which reaching $100, 000 in the quite quick time frame. You will know why thats untrue if youve got gotten my free foreign currency ebook.

9) Deficiency of Mentorship and Help

Once youve got a trading program, having a mentor not just offers you forex trading tips, but in addition the ability to obtain nearer to accomplishment as your understanding curve is going to be shorten, your doubts answered and self-confidence boosted.

10) Searching for Excitement

Some other forex trading traders may possibly think its very thrilling to buy and sell the forex trading marketplace, but to me, fx trading is uninteresting if I want to be profitable and anxiety free of charge.

Aussie Dumps after Fed Talks of Bond Buying Program

May 12, 2013 JoshTaylor

We had a crazy week last week in the market due to some serious fundamental shifts in the market. The AUD/USD took a serious nose dive through the 1.0150 market which was a low in a range from 1.0150 to 1.0600 on the AUD/USD for the past year (see the video below). First, RBA (Royal Bank of Australia) announced a rate cut of 25BP on their overnight interested rates. THEN, the US FED starts talking about an $85 Billion bond buying program to stimulate the economy. Both where bad news for the AUD/USD which dropped to parity (1.000) and is most likely going to continue dropping right to the .9800 range.

In this video I go through which caution on trading the USD cross pairs over the next few days until the market determines if the FED announcement created a short-term emotion strengthening of the USD. ORif this could be a significant game changer where the market turns into a more risk off environment and starts investing into USD again.

Watch the video completely as I analyze the charts and look for some great opportunities to trade.

Online Free forex training

The forex investing business plan

The forex investing business planThe Forex Investing Business Plan

10 August, 2010 GMT

By: Charley Warady

This might seem as bad tidings to some, but youd find out sooner or later anyway; trading the Forex market is a business. Forex investing is not all the glamour you might see on television or in the movie “Trading Places” (If you havent seen it, you must. Required viewing for all futures traders and Eddie Murphys finest performance).

Like all businesses, in Forex investing you must have a business plan and it cant be, “make a ton of money”. There is nary a business around whose business plan involves losing a ton of money, so the opposite is not quite good enough. Anyone that has ever opened a business knows there must be a business plan. Any start-up company looking for venture capital investors; the first thing they want to see is a detailed business plan before they dole out the much coveted seed money. Starting your Forex investing is no different. You need a business plan; a trading plan. And even more important than having the plan, is sticking to it.

It doesnt really matter what kind of plan it is; as long as it is written down and carefully studied. There are many established plans out there for you to use, or you can make your own. But be sure to try it out in a demo account before you throw your real money behind it. Do not try out the plan for just a week or two and then go full tilt. Be fair to yourself. Try it out in a Forex demo account provided by your Forex broker for at least a month or two. This is a business youre going to be in for a long time. Any business that is rushed into is doomed to failure; particularly in the Forex investing arena.

Write things down. Make notes as to what trades youre making and why youre making them. Oftentimes, youll see that some trades you made were based on things you wanted to see as opposed to points and lines that were actually on the chart. It makes for some great reading before you go to sleep at night and, unlike that trashy romance novel youve got on your nightstand, you just might learn something.

Stick to the plan. All your trades are not going to be profits. Get over it. If you get angry and try to teach the Forex market a lesson, you will find yourself learning something; how to flip burgers and asking if they want fries with that.

Discipline is the key. It may not always be exciting, but it leads to longevity. It doesnt matter what currency pair you choose to trade or even how many currency pairs you choose to trade. The plan is the main thing and it needs to be hashed out, practiced, and proved before your first real Forex investing trade hits the market. Theres no hurry. There is always money to be made in Forex. Its the traders with the plans that will consistently make that money.

Online The forex investing business plan

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Industry Nites

Industry Nites: Professional Trading as a life skill

JobStreet's Industry Nites – Jointly brought to you by the National Library Board . we invite you and your friends to join us for an enjoyable evening together with other professionals at the National Library on Victoria Street. Offering you the opportunity to listen, discuss and network with fellow industry professionals, this evening’s session promises to be a light and informative one.

This month’s speakers and topics:

Professional Trading as a life skill

Mr. Bert Antonik , Senior Instructor and Trader Mentor

Online Trading Academy

Join Bert Antonik as he discusses the exciting world of Professional Trading .

“Trading is a viable profession and a great way to enjoy both time and financial freedom. A rewarding and viable profession where your success is not dependent on others nor involve years of academic study to master. Trading is where you create your own wealth and are immediately rewarded for your hard work. If you are willing to do what it takes, then you will be among the top 6% who enjoy their lives as a professional trader.

Anyone can learn how to trade. From housewives to students, engineers, computer programmers, and realtors, Bert has helped many around the world from varied backgrounds on how to succeed by trading the financial markets”.

In this session, find out how you can become a profitable professional trader as Bert discusses a Trader's life, including the rewards and downsides as well as, the core pillars you must learn to become a successful trader.

Mr Bert Antonik, Senior Instructor and Trader Mentor, Online Trading Academy

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Jason sweezey-s1hour forex system for1h charts!

Jason sweezey-s1hour forex system for1h charts!Jason Sweezeys 1 Hour Forex System For 1H Charts!

November 19 2011

Watch this 1 Hour Forex Trading FREE video by Jason Sweezey. Jason Sweezey is a pro forex trader who has released a number of highly successful forex products in the past like the Forex U-Turn or the Forex Pips Snagger. This time, he is about to show you his 1 Hour Forex Trading System. Now, Jason Sweezey is a well known and respected pro trader in the forex trading community so you can be pretty sure that his 1 Hour Forex Trading System works. This is a unique trading strategy that makes on average 870 pips per month.

Jason says that his 1 Hour Forex Strategy is going to change your life. He is giving away three copies of his system FREE. These three lucky winners will be randomly selected from the people who register after watching the 1 Hour Forex Video. So dont miss your chance of winning the system FREE that comprises of:

1. 8 step by step video tutorials

2. 1 Hour Forex Manual

3. 2 custom made MT4 indicators

These are not some lagging indicators that repaint themselves. Jason is going to show you how to trade with 100% pure price action using his 1 Hour Forex System.

1 Hour Charts Forex Strategy

The choice of the right time frame is very important when trading forex. Some traders trade the shorter timeframes like the 5 minute, 15 minute or the 30 minute charts. While there are other traders who trade the longer timeframes like the 4 hour charts or the daily charts. Recently, I was reading the comments made by a trader who traded on the 15 minute charts for years with some success but recently when he changed to trading the 4 hour charts and the daily charts, he got his break and is now enjoying his huge success in forex trading.

The dynamics of a forex strategy is highly dependent on the timeframe that you choose to trade that strategy. Jason is a master of forex trading. You need to watch the 1 hour forex video and then even if you dont win the system FREE, you can try his system RISK FREE for 30 days on your demo account. This system has been developed to specifically trade on the 1 hour charts. When demo trading with this system, what you need to note is the ease of trading with this 1H chart strategy developed by Jason and the win rate on average. Another thing that you need to note is the average size of the stop loss while trading with this strategy. If after one month of demo trading, you feel happy with this strategy, you can think about trading live with this system. But if you dont feel satisfied, you should get a refund on this 1 Hour Forex Strategy!

Get A Simple Forex System FREE That More Than Doubles My Account Every Month With 2-3 Set & Forget Trades & Can Also Be Used To Trade Forex Binary Options!

Online Jason sweezey-s1hour forex system for1h charts!

Online forex predictor megabox

Online forex predictor megaboxOnline Forex Predictor MegaBOX

Online Forex Predictor MegaBOX

I would like to share with you that for forex traders Altredo present new very accurate web-based prediction software contains best prediction algoritms. Neural Networks, random forest, Kohonen Maps for price prediction, wavelets for cycles and trend prediction, statistical analysis, trading signal generation, 30+ most populat technical indicators. Works for any currency pairs and for any time frames. Connected with Metatrader. Generates predictions only in one click.

Online Online forex predictor megabox

How to build atrading strategy

How to build atrading strategyHow to Build a Trading Strategy

When trading in markets, it is often beneficial to have a strategic approach. While the concept of trading on hunches and whims and being profitable doing so, may sound attractive; in practice it is much more difficult and far less likely than if one had a formulaic approach with which they look to speculate in markets.

There are many ways of doing this. This article will walk through the primary areas that traders want to look to when building their strategies.

Before the strategy is ever created, the trader first needs to decide which market condition they are looking take advantage of. In the first part of our How to Build a Strategy series. we looked at this topic in detail. And as we saw, markets will display 3 primary conditions: Trend, Range, and Breakout (as shown in the illustration below).

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station

Each of these market conditions can exhibit markedly different tones. Ranges can commonly take place during quiet markets. The support and/or resistance that define ranges become broken when price breaks out, often from some form of news or stimuli.

Breakouts can be fast and furious, running quickly to a traders stop or limit. Breakouts can be extremely volatile, and as such, these strategies need to be built differently than range or trend strategies in regards to money, and risk management.

One a bias has begun to set in the market, longer-term trends can develop. Once again, this is a unique condition that necessitates an approach different than range or trending markets.

Once a trader has decided which market condition they want to build their strategy for, they then need to decide which timeframes they want to analyze and execute their trades on. In The Time Frames of Trading. we explored the more common intervals that traders may want to investigate based on desired holding times.

We went further to explore the concept of Multiple Time Frame Analysis. in which traders can use a longer-term chart to gauge the general trends or sentiment that may exist in a currency pair; and then using a shorter-term chart to get a more granular look as they enter the trade.

Multiple Time Frame Analysis Intervals; prepared by James Stanley

Entering the Trade

The next step in building a strategy is to begin to design how the trader will be entering trades. As we looked at in Grading Market Conditions. support and resistance can define ranges, thereby defining breakouts while also offering quite a bit of assistance with risk management in trend-based strategies.

EURUSD interacting with the 1.30 level/Created with Marketscope/Trading Station

After a trader has decided on the mannerisms of support and resistance to be utilized in the strategy, they then need to find a way to grade the strength of price moves. In How to Build a Strategy, Part 4: Grading Trends. we tied together some of the earlier concepts of price action, multiple time frame analysis, and market conditions to help traders see that they can grade how ‘strong a trend has been.

(Created with Trading Station 2.0/Marketscope)

Risk Management

In How to Build a Strategy, Part 5: Risk Management. we looked at what many traders consider to be the most important part of creating, trading, and maintaining a trading approach; and that is the manner in which traders are managing risk.

Much of this part of the series was based around the research performed by DailyFX in the Traits of Successful Traders research study.

In the DailyFX Traits of Successful Traders series, actual results from real traders on over 12 million trades were analyzed in an effort to find what had worked best, and how traders could work towards those results.

We looked at the fact that while many traders may win more often than they lose (with a winning percentage greater than 50%), it was the amount of their gains and/or losses that would often predicate their success or failure in markets. We then went on to talk about using risk-to-reward ratios in which the trader stands to make more if they are right than they could lose if they are wrong. The picture below will show a 1-to-2 risk-to-reward ratio:

1-to-2 Risk-to-Reward Ratio, as illustrated on FXCM Trading Station II

We then went on to investigate the concept of leverage, as outlined in How Much Capital Should I Trade Forex With. by Jeremy Wagner. This was the 4 th and final installment of the Traits of Successful Traders series. and provides some very insightful information.

From the graph, we can see that traders with larger balances (between $5,000 and $9,999) used lower levels of leverage (shown on the bottom of the graph); and these lower levels of leverage allowed for greater profitability.

Traders using leverage of 5:1 were profitable 37.37% of the time, while traders with balances below $1,000 were using, on average, 26:1 leverage and were only profitable 20.91% of the time. This is a massive deviation, as traders using a moderate 5:1 leverage ratio were profitable 78% more frequently than traders using 26:1 leverage.

suggests that ‘ traders should look to use an effective leverage of 10-to-1 or less .

When to Execute Your Strategy

Up to this point, we have covered many of the areas that traders would want to look to when building their strategies. Perhaps as important, if not more so is when we will actually be trading the strategy that we are creating.

One of the key differentiators of the FX Market is the fact that it doesnt close. We discussed this topic in detail in the article ‘ Trading the World .

Charting the 24-hour nature of the FX Market; from Trading the World. by James Stanley

Although the market is open 24 hours a day, price action can take on markedly different ‘tones based on what time of the day it is, and where liquidity is being offered from.

For instance, the Asian session is generally considered to offer slower price action, with stronger adherence to support and resistance and less potential for ‘big moves. Because of this, traders looking to execute range-based strategies may be better served by focusing their entries on the Asian session.

At 3AM ET, liquidity begins coming in from London. which many traders consider to be the ‘heart of the FX Market. London is the largest market center, brings in the most liquidity, and shortly after the open large moves can often be witnessed on the major currency pairs. Traders that were previously executing range strategies in the Asian session would want to be cautious here, as support and resistance can be broken much more easily with the onslaught of liquidity coming from London. Traders executing breakout strategies can often find the fast and volatile markets they are looking for after the London Open.

At 8AM, as the United States opens for business even more liquidity flows into the FX Market. This period is considered the ‘overlap, when both London and New York market centers are trading; and this is often the most voluminous period of the day in the FX market. Fast moves can be abundant, volatility extremely high, as the potential for reversals can denigrate even the strongest range strategies.

After London closes for the day, the flavor of the US Session can change quite a bit. Average hourly moves can decrease, and price action can begin to wane. The US Session may take on overtones of what is generally exhibited in the Asian session: slow price moves accented by a greater degree of respect for previously defined support and resistance levels.

Tradesessions custom indicator for Trading Station

--- Written by James B. Stanley

To contact James Stanley, please email InstructorDailyFX. You can follow James on Twitter JStanleyFX.

To join James Stanleys distribution list, please click here .

Online How to build atrading strategy

Trading stop loss strategy tight stops vs breathing room

Trading stop loss strategy tight stops vs breathing roomTrading Stop Loss Strategy: Tight Stops vs Breathing Room

What is the preferred trading stop loss strategy? There are two schools of thought on this. You can use tight stops and take more small loses, or you can give your trades more room to breath at the expense of taking larger loses. Which strategy should you use? In this article, I will try to highlight some of the benefits of both strategies, as well as give you some examples on when to use each one.

Whether youre using a tighter or looser stop loss strategy, you should never risk more than you are willing to lose. I personally never risk more than 2% per trade. Many traders use .5% 1% per trade, while very experienced traders often risk 3% or more per trade.

Many traders adjust their stop loss strategies according to how risky they believe the trade to be. If you have good reason to believe a trade will continue in the direction you desire, it doesnt make sense to use a tight stop loss. Instead, you should opt for a little breathing room for your trade. If youre less sure that your trade will be a winner, you should opt for a tighter stop loss.

Trading Stop Loss Strategy

When to use a loose stop loss You may consider using a loose stop loss if you have good reason to believe a trade will move in your favor, but it may swing away from your entry point first. Another thing to consider is the condition of the market. If market conditions are trending sharply in one direction or another, a tight stop may not be necessary.

What time frame are you trading on? Positions that you plan to hold for a few days or weeks are usually bad candidates for a tight stop loss strategy. For investment or swing trades, a little breathing room is usually preferred.

When to use a tight stop loss If you believe a trade could move in your favor but will definitely continue to move away from your entry point after it reaches a certain price, you should use the tightest stop your trade will allow. If the market is choppy or has no clear direction, you should use tight stops. You should also consider not trading in those conditions at all.

If you are doing some quick day trading, a tighter stop loss strategy may be ideal. You may also want to consider using a tight stop if you are counter-trend trading. For instance, if youre taking a long position in a bearish market, you would want to use tighter stops than you could get away with if you were trend trading.

Setting your trading stop loss strategy is an art. No two trades are the same, and different factors will affect your strategies on each trade. Ultimately, youll have to put in some screen time to see what works best for you. Getting stopped out is frustrating, but with practice and a good trading system (like Top Dog Trading ) you can learn to get stopped out less and less over time.

Online Trading stop loss strategy tight stops vs breathing room

Rsi trading basics

Rsi trading basicsRSI Trading Basics

Article Summary: RSI is one of the most common indicators used for trading Forex. Today we will review RSI and trading tips for trending markets.

Swing traders look at the Forex market and attempt to buy currency pairs low in order to sell them at a later higher price. While swing trading strategies are popular, they completely rely on market timing. In order to help pinpoint their entries, traders can turn to a technical indicator. Today we will review the basics of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator and how they can be used in conjuncture with a trending market.

Learn Forex RSI with Overbought Oversold Levels

(Created using FXCMs Marketscope 2.0 charts)

RSI is considered a classic oscillator similar to MACD, CCI or Stochastics. It is calculated by comparing an recent gains to recent losses that push the indicator up and down as it follows the momentum of an underlying asset. To help make RSI easy to read the indicator can be seen segmented into overbought and oversold values. As RSI travels between the levels of 0 and 100, traders will look for overbought and oversold conditions.

Any reading of RSI above 70 is considered overbought. Traders consider overbought to be a condition where the market has pushed up price to making a new relative high. Conversely any value under 30 is read as oversold and considered an area where price may be interpreted as undervalued. Now its time to look how these conditions can be useful to a Forex trend trader.

Learn Forex EURGBP 4Hour Uptrend

(Created using FXCMs Marketscope 2.0 charts)

Once you have a feeingl for how RSI interprets price, it can then be used to time entries in trending markets. In the example above, we can see a 4Hour chart of the EURGBP currency pair. In an uptrend, traders can wait for an oversold condition. A reading of RSI under 30 would signal a pullback against the primary trend, allowing traders to enter a new position on a pullback from the current high. Entries can be timed when momentum returns in the direction of the trend when RSI closes back above an oversold reading of 30.

---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor

---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor

To contact Walker, email wenglandfxcm. Follow me on Twitter at WEnglandFX.

To be added to Walkers e-mail distribution list, CLICK HERE and enter in your email information.

New to the FX market? Learn to trade like a professional with DailyFX!

Signup for this free “ Trade Like a Professional ” certificate course to help you get up to speed on Forex market basics. You can master the material all while earning your completion certificate.

Register HERE to start your Forex learning now!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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Top forex brokers forbes

Top forex brokers forbesI've heard more nonsense about FXCM, FXDD, GAIN CAPITAL, and GFT than I have about ACM.

Nice bunch of us 'regulated' bucket shop there =)))

1. tried FXCM - cheez how can one trade there o_0!!

2. gain - nice claiming on the spreads, have anyone seen their 'low' spreads in while trading. maybe, not me thou (((

3. GFT - are we still in mid 90's with spread of 3 pips on euro.

5. FXDD - one of the very few 'americans' i more or less consider as a money making tool. MT4 + Currenex. who knows. but again, not for me

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Forex pip range bar charts

Forex pip range bar chartsReview: TradingFX's New Pip Range Bar Charts

Example pip range bar chart

Below you can see a pip range bar chart in the upper window, with a time-based chart beneath it. In the pip range bar chart, each bar represents 8 pips worth of movement, while in the lower window you have a more traditional 3 minute chart with each bar representing 3 minutes of time. You can see how the pip range bar chart is much more smooth with no untidy spikes.

The Trading FX Service

The whole TradingFX service is more than just the pip range bar charts though. TFX is a trading community which uses the charts as its centre point, but there other things you can benefit from as part of your membership.

Your first port of call will probably be a free trial membership which provides you with Temporary access to the Live Trading floor. This live trading room uses the same Omnovia chat room software that Phil Newton uses with his Trading-Strategies website.

The live trading floor displays the pip range bar charts for four currencies with a special focus on one currency in particular (usually EUR/ USD). This means that all members can access the live pip range bar charts without having to download any software themselves. The live trading floor also displays the currency strength chart which Ill explain in a little more detail later.

The disadvantage is that you can only view the default chart displays that the moderator is showing. This could actually be a real benefit as you get started, because it is easy to get lost in any new software when you first get hold of it. By spending some time watching how other people use the software, you get a better idea of its capabilities.

The chat room moderators are all based in the US, but TFX users come from all over the world. It also helps that there are some insomniacs amongst the moderators so there is usually someone in the room to help you out pretty much 24 hours a day. The idea is that there is at least one moderator to hold the fort during one of the major Forex trading sessions (Asian, London, US).

The moderators help you understand the suggested TFX trading strategies as well as outlining reasons for and against various trades. There is a nice community feel to TFX with moderators being patient with new members and existing members helping each other out. Derek, the lead trainer, also recently organised a trading buddy system.

Example live trading room

In the screenshot example below, you can see a typical live trading room. There are pip-based charts for four of the main currencies with the currency strength chart displayed in the middle. Apologies if you cant see this, TFX had trouble converting it to a white background for me. Below all the charts you can see the text chat area. As well as using text chat, the moderators will often use the microphone throughout the session.


Review: TradingFX's New Pip Range Bar Charts

Example pip range bar chart

Below you can see a pip range bar chart in the upper window, with a time-based chart beneath it. In the pip range bar chart, each bar represents 8 pips worth of movement, while in the lower window you have a more traditional 3 minute chart with each bar representing 3 minutes of time. You can see how the pip range bar chart is much more smooth with no untidy spikes.

The Trading FX Service

The whole TradingFX service is more than just the pip range bar charts though. TFX is a trading community which uses the charts as its centre point, but there other things you can benefit from as part of your membership.

Your first port of call will probably be a free trial membership which provides you with Temporary access to the Live Trading floor. This live trading room uses the same Omnovia chat room software that Phil Newton uses with his Trading-Strategies website.

The live trading floor displays the pip range bar charts for four currencies with a special focus on one currency in particular (usually EUR/ USD). This means that all members can access the live pip range bar charts without having to download any software themselves. The live trading floor also displays the currency strength chart which Ill explain in a little more detail later.

The disadvantage is that you can only view the default chart displays that the moderator is showing. This could actually be a real benefit as you get started, because it is easy to get lost in any new software when you first get hold of it. By spending some time watching how other people use the software, you get a better idea of its capabilities.

The chat room moderators are all based in the US, but TFX users come from all over the world. It also helps that there are some insomniacs amongst the moderators so there is usually someone in the room to help you out pretty much 24 hours a day. The idea is that there is at least one moderator to hold the fort during one of the major Forex trading sessions (Asian, London, US).

The moderators help you understand the suggested TFX trading strategies as well as outlining reasons for and against various trades. There is a nice community feel to TFX with moderators being patient with new members and existing members helping each other out. Derek, the lead trainer, also recently organised a trading buddy system.

Example live trading room

In the screenshot example below, you can see a typical live trading room. There are pip-based charts for four of the main currencies with the currency strength chart displayed in the middle. Apologies if you cant see this, TFX had trouble converting it to a white background for me. Below all the charts you can see the text chat area. As well as using text chat, the moderators will often use the microphone throughout the session.

Online Forex pip range bar charts

Barron-s best online broker rankings2013

Barron-s best online broker rankings2013Barrons Best Online Broker Rankings 2013

The stock market is at or near all-time highs, which means that brokerage firms should be seeing a lot more interest (for better or worse). Weekly business newspaper Barrons just released their 2013 annual broker survey rankings. Heres a snippet about their criteria:

We looked at eight categories of service, examining what can be traded online, how the tools work together across platforms, the design and capabilities of mobile platforms, educational offerings and customer service, as well as the nuts and bolts of placing and executing a trade. We closely scrutinized the various tools available for finding appropriate trades, including scanners and charts. When examining costs, we considered stock and options commissions as well as platform or maintenance fees, margin debt, and charges for transferring an account out.

Barrons notes that overall, the online experience is improving with a growing number of brokers offering their clients real-time quotes, easier-to-use websites, and a better mobile trading experience. They also admit that their overall rankings are based on the needs of their subscribers namely wealthy, active traders. As such, their overall winner was again Interactive Brokers, a broker designed for highly-active traders with an extensive feature set and low commissions. However, IB also has a minimum opening balance of $10,000, a minimum monthly fee of $10 even if you dont trade at all, and customer service that does not cater to casual investors.

I am not an active trader, but I still like having real-time quotes, a nice user interface, and friendly service when I need it. Thankfully, Barrons also ranked the brokers for the rest of us:

Top 5 Brokers for Novice Investors

TD Ameritrade . Performed well in customer service education, research tools, and mobile offerings. Free real-time quotes from NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ Level 1 and 2. When placing an order, the trigger price is automatically set at the midpoint between bid and ask.



Charles Schwab

Capital One 360 Sharebuilder

Top 5 Brokers for Long-Term Investing

Top 5 Brokers for In-Person Service

Compared to the 2012 rankings. the top 5 for novice investors and in-person service remain the same. TD Ameritrade managed to bump Fidelity off the #1 spot for long-term investors, yet the article again chooses not to mention TDAs 100 commission-free ETF list while mentioning Firstrades lesser 10 free ETF list? TradeKing is replaced by Merrill Edge in the Top 5, even though I think they improved since the Zecco merger. Vanguards brokerage declined to participate and thus was not eligible for the rankings.

Other notables? Capital One Sharebuilder lowered their real-time commissions to $6.95 per trade. Merrill Edge (Bank of America) has altered their commission structure with a program called Platinum Privileges that includes 30 free trades per month. To qualify, you must have an active Bank of America personal checking account and maintain at least $50,000 as a combined balance in your Bank of America deposit accounts and/or your Merrill Edge brokerage accounts. Previously, to get free trades you needed $25,000 exclusively in idle cash.

Online Barron-s best online broker rankings2013

Ruggiero murray acybernetic trading strategies pdf

Ruggiero murray acybernetic trading strategies pdfRuggiero Murray A. Cybernetic trading strategies PDF

Developing a profitable trading sysfem with state-of-the-art technologies. — John Wiley Sons, 1997. — 163 p.


Classical market prediction

Classical Intermarket Analysis as a Predictive Tool

What Is Intermarket Analysis?

Using Intermarket Analysis to Develop Filters and Systems

Using Intermarket Divergence to Trade the SP

Predicting T-Bonds with Intermarket Divergence

Predicting Gold Using Intermarket Analysis

Using Intermarket Divergence to Predict Crude

Predicting the Yen with T-Bonds

Using Intermarket Analysis on Stocks

Seasonal Trading

Types of Fundamental Forces

Calculating Seasonal Effects

Measuring Seasonal Forces

The RuggierolBarna Seasonal Index

Static and Dynamic Seasonal Trading

Judging the Reliability of a Seasonal Pattern

Counterseasonal Trading

Conditional Seasonal Trading

Other Measurements for Seasonality

Best Long and Short Days of Week in Month

Trading Day-of-Month Analysis

Day-of-Year Seasonality

Using Seasonality in Mechanical Trading Systems

Counterseasonal Trading

Long-Term Patterns and Market Timing for Interest

Rates and Stocks

Inflation and Interest Rates

Predicting Interest Rates Using Inflation

Fundamental Economic Data for Predicting Interest Rates

A Fundamental Stock Market Timing Model

Trading Using Technical Analysis

Why Is Technical Analysis Unjustly Criticized?

Profitable Methods Based on Technical Analysis

The Commitment of Traders Report

What Is the Commitment of Traders Report?

How Do Commercial Traders Work?

in the Real World

Using Cycles to Detect When a Market Is Trending

Adaptive Channel Breakout

Using Predictions from MEM for Trading

Combining Statistics and Intermarket Analysis

Using Correlation to Filter Intermarket Patterns

How Feedback Can Help Mechanical Trading Systems

How to Measure System Performance for Use as Feedback

Methods of Viewing Trading Performance for Use as Feedback

How to Make Subjective Methods Mechanical

Totally Visual Patterns Recognition

Subjective Methods Definition Using Fuzzy Logic

Human-Aided Semimechanical Methods

Mechanically Definable Methods

Mechanizing Subjective Methods

Building the Wave

An Overview of Elliott Wave Analysis

Types of Five-Wave Patterns

Using the Elliott Wave Oscillator to Identify the Wave Count

TradeStation Tools for Counting Elliott Waves

Examples of Elliott Wave Sequences Using Advanced GET

Understanding the System Testing and Development Cycle

Designing an Actual System

The Steps for Testing and Evating a Trading System

A Neural Network Based on an Existing Trading System

Developing a Working Example Step-by-Step

Machine Learning Methods for Developing

Trading Strategies

Using Machine Induction for Developing Trading Rules

Extracting Rules from a Neural Network

Online Ruggiero murray acybernetic trading strategies pdf

How f-o expiry can help you to maximize profits with nifty options

How f-o expiry can help you to maximize profits with nifty optionsHow F&O Expiry can Help You to Maximize Profits with Nifty Options

You Should Read This:

Why in the Money Nifty Options Better to Trade in Expiry Week In the money style nifty options are best when expiry is near, simple reason behind this is Nifty options has the premium for time (days left for expiry). When the expiry comes near this premium.

Nifty Options Stratregy for F&O Expiry of September Series, Buy Nifty 4900 Put near 26 Level Upside for this F&O Expiry in Nifty futures is capped at 5000 level, as nifty call options has highest open interest in 5000 strike. Hence upside in nifty futures is limited to 5000 levels at.

How to Select Correct Strike Price for Trading Nifty Options Secret of success in nifty options trading lies on its strike price that a trader chooses. A strike price in nifty option has much to do with number of days left for expiry. If expiry.

Nifty Options Trading Strategy on F&O Expiry day, 90% Accuracy Nifty option trading on the day of FO expiry can be very risky, here is a trading strategy to reduce risk and trade can be as accurate as 90%. Remember on the day of FO.

When should you use long straddle strategy for Nifty Options Trade Let me tell you friends, taking long straddle on nifty option means buying both call option and a put option for nifty. These two options i. e call and put option are bought at the same.

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3common forex problems you must overcome

3common forex problems you must overcome3 Common Forex Problems You Must Overcome

In today forex faq, I will be sharing with you a problem that is pretty common among traders.

Below are the question:

I have been trading forex now for more than two years yet not be able to make head ways, what is wrong with me? Pls i really need your help.

For the above question, I am unable to tell you exactly what is wrong with your method as I do not know anything about you. However I will share with you some of the common problems that I face when I first started trading a few years back.

1) Holy Grail Strategy

I bet most of you are looking for a holy grail strategy that can win 100% of the time. In fact, I have searching for it when I first started trading. I find myself jumping from one strategy from another just because I have a loss from that particular strategy.

One common problem with new traders is they are constantly looking for strategy that wins 100% of the time. Frankly speaking, there is no strategy that can win 100% of the time. The best strategy I have heard of is about 75% accurate.

So if you are still looking for a holy grail strategy, I think it is time to stop and focus on refining a particular strategy. In fact, you just need one strategy that wins 75% of the time with good risk reward ratio and you are going to make money from trading.

My advice to you is to find one strategy that suits your trading time and style and then fine tune it by adjusting your indicators to improve its performance.

Another major problem that most new traders have is what I called the itchy hand habit. Do you constantly find yourself wanting to hit the buy or sell button and this is one of the main problem with new trader. You are constantly trying to get into a trade and this lead you to get force trading which is something that is not desirable if you want to trade forex for a living.

Force trading means that you are entering a trade based on emotion and not on trading plan. When you are force trading, you tend to get into trades that do not have setups that are according to your plan.

As a trader, you have to stay discipline and only trade when there are setups that are according to your trading plan. The key to making money from trading is not on the number of trades you have made, it is on the number of successful trades that you have made.

Try to overcome this problem if you have one.

3) Constantly Learning

Even though I am able to trade for a living, I am constantly taking up courses on forex. Although I may not implement all the strategy, there are always some stuff that I learn that can help to further improve my current trading strategy.

However please refrain from taking up courses after courses without spending some time to practice what you have learned. There is no point in you taking up a course and dont try out what you have learned.

From the 3 problems above, I think that the first one is the most serious as this alone can set you back for a long time. Therefore if you are really interested to become a trader, you must spend some time to find one and fix on one strategy to practice until you are able to win 70% of the time.

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