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Training and development plan

Training and development planPlanning for Quality Improvement

All settings will need to have a quality improvement cycle in place to ensure that they consider how to best create, maintain and improve their provision in order to offer the highest quality experiences for all young children and their families. This cycle will include;

A self–evaluation audit. This provides the starting point for the improvement process. In Islington the EYFS team has developed the Quality Indicators as the tool through which managers, (often together with a Link Advisory Teacher) and staff teams can identify strengths and prioritise areas for further development. It is based on the Every Child Matters outcomes and guided by the principles of the EYFS framework.

Identifying and agreeing improvement priorities. A number of objectives mayl be identified from this process. It is also important to take into account any OFSTED recommendations, any issues raised from filling in your OFSTED SEF and any workforce development needs, including CPD fro individual staff and designated people, qualification ratios and progression e. g. towards EYP status.

A Training and Development plan can be drawn up reflecting these objectives. This should include measurable success criteria and clear actions and should be monitored every six months and evaluated annually.

Carrying out agreed actions.

Review to evaluated progress.

See 'related documents' to download the proforma for the Training and Development Plan and the Islington Quality Indicators.

Training and Development Plan

Another important aspect of the ASR process is the consideration of any training needs identified during the ASR process in light of departmental priorities. This should be carried out with the guidance of the HoD if they are not a Panel member. Where appropriate group training needs should be identified, priorities agreed and, if necessary, budgetary provision made in the departmental planning submission.

A summary of the departments training needs should be forwarded to the Staff Training and Development Manager (and/or the Academic Staff Development Officer and the Director of Postgraduate Training where relevant) in the form of a departmental training plan.

Below is a suggested template which may be adopted when compiling the departmental training plan:

Introduction

Write a few lines of introduction which outlines the process followed which has resulted in the training plan (i. e. ASR process - dates and numbers involved). Introduction should also explain the strategic fit of the needs identified .



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Forex should you be trading trend or range

Forex should you be trading trend or rangeForex: Should You Be Trading Trend Or Range?

Whether trading stocks, futures. options or FX. traders confront the single most important question: to trade trend or range. And they answer this question by assessing the price environment; doing so accurately greatly enhances a trader's chance of success. Trend or range are two distinct price properties requiring almost diametrically opposed mindsets and money-management techniques. Fortunately, the FX market is uniquely suited to accommodate both styles, providing trend and range traders with opportunities for profit. Since trend trading is far more popular, let's first examine how trend traders can benefit from FX.

Get In Early

Regardless of how one defines it, the goal of trend trading is the same - join the move early and hold the position until the trend reverses. The basic mindset of trend trader is "I am right or I am out?" The implied bet all trend traders make is that price will continue in its present direction. If it doesn't there is little reason to hold onto the trade. Therefore, trend traders typically trade with tight stops and often make many probative forays into the market in order to make the right entry.

By nature, trend trading generates far more losing trades than winning trades and requires rigorous risk control. The usual rule of thumb is that trend traders should never risk more than 1.5-2.5% of their capital on any given trade. On a 10,000-unit (10K) account trading 100K standard lots. that means stops as small as 15-25 pips behind the entry price. Clearly, in order to practice such a method, a trader must have confidence that the market traded will be highly liquid.

Of course the FX market is the most liquid market in the world. With US$1.6 trillion of average daily turnover, the currency market dwarfs the stock and bond markets in size. Furthermore, the FX market trades 24 hours a day five days a week, eliminating much of the gap risk found in exchange-based markets. Certainly gaps sometimes happen in FX, but not nearly as frequently as they occur in stock or bond markets, so slippage is far less of a problem.

High Leverage - Large Profits

When trend traders are correct about the trade, the profits can be enormous. This dynamic is especially true in FX where high leverage greatly magnifies the gains. Typical leverage in FX is 100:1, meaning that a trader needs to put down only $1 of margin to control $100 of the currency. Compare that with the stock market where leverage is usually set at 2:1, or even the futures market where even the most liberal leverage does not exceed 20:1.

It's not unusual to see FX trend traders double their money in a short period if they catch a strong move. Suppose a trader starts out with $10,000 in his or her account, and uses a strict stop-loss rule of 20 pips. The trader may get stopped out five or six times, but if he or she is properly positioned for a large move - like the one in EUR/USD between Sept and Dec 2004 when the pair rose more than 12 cents, or 1,200 pips - that one-lot purchase could generate something like a $12,000 profit, doubling the trader's account in a matter of months. (For background reading, see The Most Popular Forex Currencies .)

The Market Always Wins

Of course few traders have the discipline to take stop losses continuously. Most traders, dejected by a series of bad trades tend to become stubborn and fight the market, often placing no stops at all. This is when FX leverage can be most dangerous. The same process that quickly produces profits can also generate massive losses. The end result is that many undisciplined traders suffer a margin call and lose most of their speculative capital.

Trading trend with discipline can be extremely difficult. If the trader uses high leverage he or she leaves very little room to be wrong. Trading with very tight stops can often result in 10 or even 20 consecutive stop outs before the trader can find a trade with strong momentum and directionality.

Bound to a Range

For this reason many traders prefer to trade range-bound strategies. Please note that when I speak of ‘range-bound trading' I am not referring to the classic definition of the word 'range '. Trading in such a price environment involves isolating currencies that are trading in channels. and then selling at the top of the channel and buying at the bottom of the channel. This can be a very worthwhile strategy, but, in essence, it is still a trend-based idea - albeit one that anticipates an imminent countertrend. (What is a countertrend after all, except a trend going the other way?)

True range traders don't care about direction. The underlying assumption of range trading is that no matter which way the currency travels, it will most likely return back to its point of origin. In fact, range traders bet on the possibility that prices will trade through the same levels many times, and the traders' goal is to harvest those oscillations for profit over and over again.

Clearly range trading requires a completely different money-management technique. Instead of looking for just the right entry, range traders prefer to be wrong at the outset so that they can build a trading position.

Putting it into Practice

For example, imagine that EUR/USD is trading at 1.3000. A range trader may decide to short the pair at that price and every 50 pips higher, and then buy it back as it moves every 25 pips down. His or her assumption is that eventually the pair will return to that 1.3000 level again. If EUR/USD rises to 1.3500 and then turns back down hitting 1.3000, the range trader would harvest a handsome profit, especially if the currency moves back and forth in its climb to 1.3500 and its fall to 1.3000.

However, as we can see from this example a range-bound trader will need to have very deep pockets in order to implement this strategy. In this case employing large leverage can be devastating since positions can often go against the trader for many points in a row and, if he or she is not careful, trigger a margin call before the currency eventually turns around.

Solutions for Range Traders

In FX, almost no dealer charges commission. Customers simply pay the bid-ask spread. Furthermore, regardless of whether a customer wants to deal for 100 units or 100,000 units, most dealers will quote the same price. Therefore, unlike the stock or futures markets where retail customers often have to pay prohibitive commissions on very small size trades, retail speculators in FX suffer no such disadvantage. In fact a range-trading strategy can be implanted on even a small account of $1,000, as long as the trader properly sizes his or her trades.



Online Forex should you be trading trend or range

A forex system for h4timeframe!

A forex system for h4timeframe!A Forex System For H4 Timeframe!

April 1 2013

In this post, I will discuss my personal trading system that I use to trade on the H4 timeframe. I am a scalper plus a swing trader. I use divergence extensively both for scalping as well as swing trading. When I am scalping, I trade on M15 timeframe and when I am swing trading I trade on the H4 timeframe. So I basically trade divergences. My system is the same for scalping as well as swing trading. In a future post, I will discuss my scalping system in detail as well. Divergence develops when the price action and the indicator move in the opposite direction. The best indicators for finding divergences are MACD, Stochastic and RSI. I use all 3 of them. Lets take a look at the following screenshot!

As you can see a nice bearish divergence pattern is developing on the MACD, Stochastic and the RSI. The date is 31st December 2012. Bearish divergence pattern means the price is about to fall. After spotting the divergence pattern, I need to confirm that this is a valid signal. I draw a minor trendline and wait for its break whenever I want to confirm a divergence pattern. The screenshot below shows how I draw the minor trendline.

The minor trendline was broken on M30 much earlier as compared to H4. If I had used the H4 timeframe, the entry price would have been at 1.6305 while the stop loss would have been at 1.6385. So my risk would have been 80 pips if I had entered using the H4 timeframe. Once I spot the divergence pattern on the higher timeframe, I move to a lower timeframe so that I can find a better entry with a lower stop loss. After spotting the divergence pattern on the H4 timeframe, I moved to the M30 timeframe and drew the trendline as shown in the following screenshot.

Only the Stochastic is showing a bearish divergence on M30 but since H4 is showing bearish divergence on MACD, Stochastic and the RSI, it is a much stronger signal for us. The minor trendline was broken on the M30 much earlier as compared to on the H4 timeframe. I got into a short trade at 1.6335 using the M30 chart. My stop loss was at 1.6385. So my risk is 50 pips instead of 80 pips. I have been able to reduce the risk by 30 pips. This illustrates the importance of using a multi timeframe approach. A move on the H4 timeframe easily makes 100-300 pips. So my reward to risk ratio is 2:1. I am expecting to make at least 100 pips. I will continue in the trade as long as there is no bullish divergence on H4. I will check the chart 2-3 times daily and see whether any bullish divergence is forming or not. On 9th Bullish Divergence appears on H4 timeframe.

Now keep this in mind that the market doesnt change direction all of a sudden. Take a look at the following screenshot that shows the bullish diverence on H4 and the minor trendline that I have drawn. Price has made a low at 1.5997. When I spotted the bullish divergence, I opened the M30 chart and drew a minor trendline as shown below. I closed the short trade at 1.6010 and made a total of 325 pips in 10 days.

Once I spotted divergence on H4 timeframe, I moved to the M30 timeframe to find a better entry. MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence while Stochastic is not showing it. But since on H4 timeframe, all three are showing bullish divergence we have a much stronger signal. After closing the short trade, I immediately opened a long trade at 1.6010. As you can see from the above screenshot market moved up to 1.6179 in 1 day. So I made another 160 pips with this long trade. I made a total of 485 pips in 12 days.

In the beginning, I had a problem in finding the proper entry when I spotted a divergence pattern. But as I have explained above, drawing a minor trendline solved this problem for me nicely. The advantage of trading on the H4 timeframe is that you dont need to monitor the charts much as compared to scalping. If you are scalping, you have to constantly monitor the charts. So I would advice that you should start by trading on the H4 timeframe. It is much much easier as compared to scalping. As you have seen, I only use standard oscillators MACD, Stochastic and RSI and use trendlines a lot. Thats all I do! I dont need any fancy software to tell me where the market wants to go. You must have also seen moving averages in the screenshots above. Once a trend develops, moving averages tell you a lot about the strength of the trend. When the moving averages are fanning apart, it means the trend is going strong and when they try to come closer, it means the trend is getting weak.

Now, it is always a good idea to learn from others. The best traders are those who have taken part in a trading competition and won that. You must have heard about the Surefire Trading Challenge. If not then you must read the story of how a 20 year old college student from Vermont USA was able to beat thousands of traders in one of the biggest live online trading competition in the world . Taking a look at his system and the systems of other winners of this big online forex competition will teach you a lot. You will be surprised to find the most of them are ordinary part time traders who were able to develop their system by reading the free material on the internet.

Another good service that can help you a lot in case you want to master how to trade on the H4 timeframe is the Forex Mentor PRO Service run by two professional forex traders Dean Saunders and Marc Walton .

Incase you are not clear about divergence, then you should read these 2 PDFs that explain in depth candlesticks, moving averages and divergences .

Get A Simple Forex System FREE That More Than Doubles My Account Every Month With 2-3 Set & Forget Trades & Can Also Be Used To Trade Forex Binary Options!



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Best paypal brokers

Best paypal brokersBest Paypal Brokers

Knowing the value of money, spotting which currencies are set to rise and fall and having a general sense of the financial market are essential skills when dealing in the foreign exchange. However, another skill in which a trader must be proficient is the movement of money. While it’s one thing to make money in the Forex world, it’s another to actually realise any profits in a physical form.

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Betfair trading strategies pdf

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Online Betfair trading strategies pdf

Past competition list2015

Past competition list2015Past Competition List 2015

The demo trading account, a core feature of the IronFX educational programme, serves as an invaluable resource for clients wishing to practice and develop effective trading skills. Using a demo account to build trading expertise via a simulated trading interface with all the features and functions of a live trading account helps our traders to achieve their maximum trading potential.

The demo trading account, a core feature of the IronFX educational programme, serves as an invaluable resource for clients wishing to practice and develop effective trading skills. Using a demo account to build trading expertise via a simulated trading interface with all the features and functions of a live trading account helps our traders to achieve their maximum trading potential.

Past Demo Competitions



Online Past competition list2015

Forex definition

Forex definitionPart 1: What Is Forex Trading. A Definition & Introduction

An Introduction to Forex Trading:

Hey traders,

This free Forex mini-course is designed to teach you the basics of the Forex market and Forex trading in a non-boring way. I know you can find this information elsewhere on the web, but let’s face it; most of it is scattered and pretty dry to read. I will try to make this tutorial as fun as possible so that you can learn about Forex trading and have a good time doing it.

Upon completion of this course you will have a solid understanding of the Forex market and Forex trading, and you will then be ready to progress to learning real-world Forex trading strategies.

What is the Forex market?

• What is Forex? – The basics…

Basically, the Forex market is where banks, businesses, governments, investors and traders come to exchange and speculate on currencies. The Forex market is also referred to as the ‘Fx market’, ‘Currency market’, ‘Foreign exchange currency market’ or ‘Foreign currency market’, and it is the largest and most liquid market in the world with an average daily turnover of $3.98 trillion.

The Fx market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week with the most important world trading centers being located in London, New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, and Sydney.

It should be noted that there is no central marketplace for the Forex market ; trading is instead said to be conducted ‘over the counter’; it’s not like stocks where there is a central marketplace with all orders processed like the NYSE. Forex is a product quoted by all the major banks, and not all banks will have the exact same price. Now, the broker platforms take all theses feeds from the different banks and the quotes we see from our broker are an approximate average of them. It’s the broker who is effectively transacting the trade and taking the other side of itthey ‘make the market’ for you. When you buy a currency pair…your broker is selling it to you, not ‘another trader’.

• A brief history of the Forex market

Ok, I admit, this part is going to be a little bit boring, but it’s important to have some basic background knowledge of the history of the Forex market so that you know a little bit about why it exists and how it got here. So here is the history of the Forex market in a nutshell:

In 1876, something called the gold exchange standard was implemented. Basically it said that all paper currency had to be backed by solid gold; the idea here was to stabilize world currencies by pegging them to the price of gold. It was a good idea in theory, but in reality it created boom-bust patterns which ultimately led to the demise of the gold standard.

The gold standard was dropped around the beginning of World War 2 as major European countries did not have enough gold to support all the currency they were printing to pay for large military projects. Although the gold standard was ultimately dropped, the precious metal never lost its spot as the ultimate form of monetary value.

The world then decided to have fixed exchange rates that resulted in the U. S. dollar being the primary reserve currency and that it would be the only currency backed by gold, this is known as the ‘Bretton Woods System’ and it happened in 1944 (I know you super excited to know that). In 1971 the U. S. declared that it would no longer exchange gold for U. S. dollars that were held in foreign reserves, this marked the end of the Bretton Woods System.

It was this break down of the Bretton Woods System that ultimately led to the mostly global acceptance of floating foreign exchange rates in 1976. This was effectively the “birth” of the current foreign currency exchange market, although it did not become widely electronically traded until about the mid 1990s.

(OK! Now let’s move on to some more entertaining topics!)…

What is Forex Trading?

Forex trading as it relates to retail traders (like you and I) is the speculation on the price of one currency against another. For example, if you think the euro is going to rise against the U. S. dollar, you can buy the EURUSD currency pair low and then (hopefully) sell it at a higher price to make a profit. Of course, if you buy the euro against the dollar (EURUSD), and the U. S. dollar strengthens, you will then be in a losing position. So, it’s important to be aware of the risk involved in trading Forex, and not only the reward.

• Why is the Forex market so popular?

Being a Forex trader offers the most amazing potential lifestyle of any profession in the world. It’s not easy to get there, but if you are determined and disciplined, you can make it happen. Here’s a quick list of skills you will need to reach your goals in the Forex market:

Ability to take a loss without becoming emotional

Confidence to believe in yourself and your trading strategy, and to have no fear

Dedication to becoming the best Forex trader you can be

Discipline to remain calm and unemotional in a realm of constant temptation (the market)

Flexibility to trade changing market conditions successfully

Focus to stay concentrated on your trading plan and to not stray off course

Logic – to look at the market from an objective and straight forward perspective

Organization – to forge and reinforce positive trading habits

Patience – to wait for only the highest-probability trading strategies according to your plan

Realism – to not think you are going to get rich quick and understand the reality of the market and trading

Savvy – to take advantage of your trading edge when it arises and be aware of what is happening in the market at all times

Self-control – to not over-trade and over-leverage your trading account

As traders, we can take advantage of the high leverage and volatility of the Forex market by learning and mastering and effective Forex trading strategy, building an effective trading plan around that strategy, and following it with ice-cold discipline. Money management is key here; leverage is a double-edged sword and can make you a lot of money fast or lose you a lot of money fast. The key to money management in Forex trading is to always know the exact dollar amount you have at risk before entering a trade and be TOTALLY OK with losing that amount of money, because any one trade could be a loser. More on money management later in the course.

• Who trades Forex and why?

Banks – The interbank market allows for both the majority of commercial Forex transactions and large amounts of speculative trading each day. Some large banks will trade billions of dollars, daily. Sometimes this trading is done on behalf of customers, however much is done by proprietary traders who are trading for the bank’s own account.

Companies – Companies need to use the foreign exchange market to pay for goods and services from foreign countries and also to sell goods or services in foreign countries. An important part of the daily Forex market activity comes from companies looking to exchange currency in order to transact in other countries.

Governments / Central banks – A country’s central bank can play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They can cause an increase or decrease in the value of their nation’s currency by trying to control money supply, inflation, and (or) interest rates. They can use their substantial foreign exchange reserves to try and stabilize the market.

Hedge funds Somewhere around 70 to 90% of all foreign exchange transactions are speculative in nature. This means, the person or institutions that bought or sold the currency has no plan of actually taking delivery of the currency; instead, the transaction was executed with sole intention of speculating on the price movement of that particular currency. Retail speculators (you and I) are small cheese compared to the big hedge funds that control and speculate with billions of dollars of equity each day in the currency markets.

Individuals – If you have ever traveled to a different country and exchanged your money into a different currency at the airport or bank, you have already participated in the foreign currency exchange market.

Investors – Investment firms who manage large portfolios for their clients use the Fx market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager controlling an international equity portfolio needs to use the Forex market to purchase and sell several currency pairs in order to pay for foreign securities they want to purchase.

Retail Forex traders – Finally, we come to retail Forex traders (you and I). The retail Forex trading industry is growing everyday with the advent of Forex trading platforms and their ease of accessibility on the internet. Retail Forex traders access the market indirectly either through a broker or a bank. There are two main types of retail Forex brokers that provide us with the ability to speculate on the currency market: brokers and dealers. Brokers work as an agent for the trader by trying to find the best price in the market and executing on behalf of the customer. For this, they charge a commission on top of the price obtained in the market. Dealers are also called market makers because they ‘make the market’ for the trader and act as the counter-party to their transactions, they quote a price they are willing to deal at and are compensated through the spread. which is the difference between the buy and sell price (more on this later).

Advantages of Trading the Forex Market:

• Forex is the largest market in the world, with daily volumes exceeding $3 trillion per day. This means dense liquidity which makes it easy to get in and out of positions.

• Trade whenever you want: There is no opening bell in the Forex market. You can enter or exit a trade whenever you want from Sunday around 5pm EST to Friday around 4pm EST.

• Ease of access: You can fund your trading account with as little as $250 at many retail brokers and begin trading the same day in some cases. Straight through order execution allows you to trade at the click of a mouse.

• Fewer currency pairs to focus on, instead of getting lost trying to analyze thousands of stocks

• Freedom to trade anywhere in the world with the only requirements being a laptop and internet connection.

• Commission-free trading with many retail market-makers and overall lower transaction costs than stocks and commodities.

• Volatility allows traders to profit in any market condition and provides for high-probability weekly trading opportunities. Also, there is no structural market bias like the long bias of the stock market, so traders have equal opportunity to profit in rising or falling markets.

While the forex market is clearly a great market to trade, I would note to all beginners that trading carries both the potential for reward and risk. Many people come into the markets thinking only about the reward and ignoring the risks involved, this is the fastest way to lose all of your trading account money. If you want to get started trading the Fx market on the right track, it’s critical that you are aware of and accept the fact that you could lose on any given trade you take.

Syllabus Of All Chapters

The Forex market is similar to the equities` market. Some important differences exist, however. Two or more accounts are offered by majority of the brokers.

When one decides to trade on the Forex market, he should choose a broker. In this regard, here are some things to look for:

- Low spread – it is the difference between the purchase price of a currency and the price at which it can be sold. This difference shows how Forex brokers make money while they do not charge a commission.

- Quality institution – Forex brokers are unlike equity brokers who are normally related to the lending institutions or the banks. The reason is that a large amount of capital is required for operations. They are registered with the Futures Commission Merchant

- Tools and research – A wide variety of trading platforms are offered by the Forex traders. Among them are the technical analysis tools, real-time charts, support for trading systems, and real time news and data. It is a good idea to test different trading platforms by requesting trials prior to committing to any broker. Economic calendars, as well as fundamental and technical commentaries are often provided by the brokers

- Leverage options ranging widely – the price deviations are just fractions of a cent the leverage. Leverage represents the amount of money a broker will lend one, shown as a ratio between the available total capital and the actual one. A broker will lend to the borrower one hundred dollars for every dollar of actual capital when the ratio is 100:1. The risk of a marginal call is lower when the leverage is low.

- Types of Accounts - The mini account is considered to be the smallest type of account. It has a required minimum of $250. The Mini offers a high leverage amount, which one is going to need in order to trade with such a small amount of capital. The standard account has initial capital minimum requirement of $2000.

Forex Definition

The market in which one currency is simultaneously bought or sold at the same time, against a counter currency. The Forex market is the largest, most liquid market on the planet, with an approximate traded value that exceeds $3.9 trillion per day and includes all of the currencies in the world.

There is no central marketplace for currency exchange; trade is conducted in a decentralized “over the counter” (OTC Market). The Forex market is open 24/5 Monday to Friday and currencies are traded worldwide among the major financial centres of London, New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris and Sydney.

The Forex Market is the largest market in the world in terms of the total cash value traded, and any person, organisation or country can participate. Financial centres around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends.

The foreign exchange market determines the relative values of different currencies

The primary purpose of the foreign exchange is to assist international trade and investment, by allowing businesses to convert one currency to another currency. For example, it permits a US business to import British goods and pay Pound Sterling, even though the businesss income is in US dollars. It also supports speculation, and facilitates the carry trade, in which investors borrow lower-yielding currencies and lend (invest in) higher-yielding currencies.

In a typical foreign exchange transaction, a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market began forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods Agreement.

The foreign exchange market is unique because of

It has a huge trading volume

leading to high liquidity; (there is always a buyer and seller)

Its geographical dispersion; Its worldwide

Its continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends, i. e. trading from 20:15 GMT on Sunday until 22:00 GMT Friday;

The variety of factors that affect exchange rates;

The low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income;

The use of leverage to enhance profit margins with respect to account size.

No one person or organisation can control the market for any length of time.

The $3.98 trillion break-down is approximately is as follows:

$1.490 trillion in spot transactions

$475 billion in outright forwards

$1.765 trillion in foreign exchange swaps

$43 billion currency swaps

$207 billion in options and other products

Forex Definitions and Terms

Ask: Price at which broker/dealer is willing to sell. Same as Offer.

Bid: Price at which broker/dealer is willing to buy.

Bid/Ask Spread (or Spread): The distance, usually in pips, between the Bid and Ask price. A tighter spread is better for the trader.

Cost of Carry (also Interest or Premium): The cost, often quoted in terms of dollars or pips per day, of holding an open position.

Currency Futures: Futures contracts traded on an exchange, most typically the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Always quoted in terms of the currency value with respect to the US Dollar. Parameters of the futures contract are standardized by the exchange.

Drawdown: The magnitude of a decline in account value, either in percentage or dollar terms, as measured from peak to subsequent trough. For example, if a trader's account increased in value from $10,000 to $20,000, then dropped to $15,000, then increased again to $25,000, that trader would have had a maximum drawdown of $5,000 (incurred when the account declined from $20,000 to $15,000) even though that trader's account was never in a loss position from inception.

Fundamental Analysis: Macro or strategic assessments of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the price action itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other fundamental elements.

Leverage: The amount, expressed as a multiple, by which the notional amount traded exceeds the margin required to trade. For example, if the notional amount traded (also referred to as lot size or contract value) is $100,000 dollars and the required margin is $2,000, the trader can trade with 50 times leverage ($100,000/$2,000).

Limit: An order to buy at a specified price when the market moves down to that price, or to sell at a specified price when the market moves up to that price.

Liquidity: A function of volume and activity in a market. It is the efficiency and cost effectiveness with which positions can be traded and orders executed. A more liquid market will provide more frequent price quotes at a smaller bid/ask spread.

Margin: The amount of funds required in a clients account in order to open a position or to maintain an open position. For example, 1% margin means that $1,000 of funds on deposit are required for a $100,000 position.

Margin Call: A requirement by the broker to deposit more funds in order to maintain an open position. Sometimes a margin call means that the position which does not have sufficient funds on deposit will simply be closed out by the broker. This procedure allows the client to avoid further losses or a debit account balance.

Market Order . An order to buy at the current Ask price.

Offer: Price at which broker/dealer is willing to sell. Same as Ask.

Pip: The smallest price increment in a currency. Often referred to as ticks in the futures markets. For example, in EURUSD, a move from .9015 to .9016 is one pip. In USDJPY, a move from 128.51 to 128.52 is one pip.

Premium (also Interest or Cost of Carry): The cost, often quoted in terms of dollars or pips per day, of holding an open position.

Spot Foreign Exchange: Often referred to as the interbank market. Refers to currencies traded between two counterparties, often major banks. Spot Foreign Exchange is generally traded on margin and is the primary market that this website is focused on. Generally more liquid and widely traded than currency futures, particularly by institutions and professional money managers.

Stop: An order to buy at the market only when the market moves up to a specific price, or to sell at the market only when the market moves down to a specific price.

Technical Analysis: Analysis applied to the price action of the market to develop trading decisions, irrespective of fundamental factors. Below are the most common technical studies. Click to view a description:

Forex Definition

Forex Definition There are more and less popular pairs of exchange in the forex market. Euro Dollar is one of the most important pairs and you are likely to see it written in the form of EUR/USD on all forex display screens. There are of course other tradable pairs such as GPB/USD (British Pound/ American dollar), USD/JPY (American dollar/Japanese Yen), USD/CHF (American dollar/Swiss Franc). Yet, they are far less popular than the EUR/USD pair.

What are Forex benefits?

First of all, forex market comprises the biggest number of participants with the largest daily transaction volume. All the transactions are conducted within seconds, following online quotes. Forex market is opened 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and can easily be accessed from anywhere within a computer environment. A trader is his own boss he can open a position for any period of time he wants without any fees attached. The only thing he will need to extra pay is the difference between buying and selling prices. Yet, one of the greatest forex benefits is that a trader has an opportunity to profit much more than he originally invested.

How can forex trading be rendered?

In the past, forex trading could only be rendered through banks. Today, with the ushering of new electronic revolution, there are myriad of options. Many online forex trading companies have emerged and started offering a wide range of services for traders all over the world, by means of online forex trading platforms. These platforms can easily be accessed if one has a computer and an Internet connection.



Online Forex definition

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Options trading exit strategyand money management

Options trading exit strategyand money managementOptions Trading Exit Strategy

and Money Management

Module 6: Trading Options

Lesson 7: Trading Exit Strategy/Money Management

A trading exit strategy is one of most important, yet least understood components of options trading. In this lesson you'll learn how to protect and keep your options trading profits.

In this lesson we will cover Steps 6 & 7 of the seven step trading process: Exit Strategy and Money Management

It's actually easy to make money. The hard part is keeping it. Your exit strategy and money management rules are what you'll use to manage the risk of options trading.

Options trading involves far too many variables beyond your control. You must have a trading exit strategy planned out before you enter a trade.

It's an easy way to manage risk.

As you are aware from the paper trading options lesson, we entered an option trade on the stock "INFY" (Infosys Technologies).

As of 9/22/09 we are still in the trade. The stock is trading at $49.29 and the price of our option contract is now trading for $6.80, which gives us a current return on our investment of 100% .

**Update**

I exited the trade on 9/24/09 at a price of $5.60. This puts our return on investment at 65%. It's not the 100% we once had, but I am perfectly fine with 65%.

This is also very common. If you wait for a technical exit you will often give up some of your gains. If my profit target was 100% then I would have exited the trade once that target was met.

Continue reading to learn about the different types of exit strategies and money management.

Components of a Trading Exit Strategy

The reason you plan your exit strategy before you enter a trade is because once you are in a trade, your emotions will cloud your judgment.

Every investor should have an exit strategy .

There are primarily two things you will consider when you are creating a trading exit strategy:

At what point will you get out of the trade if things don't go in your favor

and where and when will you take profits if things do go in your favor

If things go wrong

Stock options are extremely volatile. It's not uncommon to see your trade fluctuate in value by 10-20% during the trading day.

Once I place my trade, I will instruct my broker (via a hard stop) to close out my trade if it drops in value by a certain percentage.

If I lose 30-50% of my invested capital, I cut my losses and I move on. That's enough of a loss to tell me that either this is a bad trade or I was wrong on my timing.

Either way, I was wrong .

Learn to swallow your pride and pay attention to the feedback your trade gives you . There is no reason you should lose all of your money in a trade.

If things go right

Once my trade has gained value by 30-50% I begin to look into either protecting my profits or at least ensuring that I will not lose money on the trade.

I will either place a hard stop at my entry price or set a trailing stop. This is more of an art than a science. Each stock and each trade is different so it takes time to learn how to properly set stops.

Trading Exit Strategy

When Do You Get Out of a Trade

There are plenty of books, courses, friends, and news commentators who are more than willing to advise you on getting into trades, but where are they when you need to get out?

Nearly everyone knows how to get into trades. It's the knowing when to get out part that eludes people.

Here are 3 simple methods to use as a trading exit strategy:

Time Based: with this method you stay in a trade for a certain period of time. If you set your time target for 2 months, then you would exit the trade exactly 2 months after entering it.

Target Profit: this is a popular exit strategy for traders. You set a profit target for your trades, then you exit the trade once that profit target is met.

Technical Exit: this exit strategy is one of my favorites, yet it takes an extreme amount of patience. Basically, you only exit when the stock gives you a technical signal to exit. This could be a pullback in prices, stalling at support or resistance, or a number of other signals.

Money Management Principles

If you have poor money management habits, then you will not survive as an options trader. Poor money management habits are also why some people succeed in life financially while others barely get by.

I'm not going to give you any hard fast rules to follow, just a few common sense principles that should keep you out of trouble.

Learn how to profit on paper first before using real money.

Don't invest money you can't afford or are not willing to lose.

Don't invest your entire account on one trade trying to get rich quicker.

If you have 7 losing trades in a row, stop trading and regroup.

Diversify your investments. Don't invest solely in stock options.

Never have your entire available capital tied up in option trades.

No one has ever gone broke taking a profit. Remember there is no such thing as a small profit. As long as you make more money than you lose, your account will continue to grow beyond measure.

This was the last lesson in the web based course. I hope it has given you a better understanding of options trading.

The course was not designed to make you an options trading pro. It was designed to help beginners gain a basic understanding of options trading so that they will be better equipped to succeed.

I will continue to build out the site with articles, tutorials, and trade examples. I've also had a few requests for a PDF version of the course so I will begin to work on that.

I'll announce it to my newsletter subscribers once it's complete.

Module 6: Trading Options



Online Options trading exit strategyand money management

Automation without tears

Automation without tearsAutomation Without Tears

Literally thousands of traders around the globe use Excel TM to develop and run their mechanical trading models. But until now, the unbridgeable gap has been a bullet-proof way to automate those models for real time simulation and live trading. Gary Stone, Chief Strategy Officer, and Howard Stone, Product/Business head for Tradebook API at Bloomberg Tradebook outline the ideal solution.

While power Excel TM users are commonplace in financial markets, by no means all of these users are also VBA programmers. As a result, a large segment of the trading community has been disenfranchised by the lack of any simple way to automate mechanical models that they are running in Excel. The models may spit out entry and exit signals from Excel, but the process has always still required the trader to manually click to place the requisite orders. The alternative of hiring a programmer to automate the model using VBA or another language immediately runs into the trader/programmer interface where misunderstandings and errors frequently abound.

Faster competitive productivity

This isn't just a matter of convenience and avoiding programming costs/misunderstandings. In the financial markets of today, where doing more with less is not an option, this is also about productivity, risk management and (ultimately) competitive edge:

• As more traders have access to more computational firepower, the lifespan of many trading ideas is decreasing appreciably, as too many traders can easily data mine the same alpha opportunities. Ten years ago a robust trading model might capture inefficiencies for several years. Today, an initially profitable model's performance often starts to decay in a matter of months, weeks - or even days. That places a premium upon a trading organisation's ability to maintain a production line of new models and - once fully tested - deploy them in the market as quickly as possible.

• When used intelligently, trade automation can beget greater productivity. The individual who can automate trade execution and management has additional time in which to research and develop new trading models. For those traders who don't have access to a dedicated programming team, Excel has plenty of tools to facilitate this development process without delving into VBA. The key is having the time with which to do that, which automation delivers. As a result, the trading operation as a whole is able to maximise its available intellectual capital and work more efficiently.

• While it's common for traders to claim their models are parameter-less, there's usually at least one parameter somewhere in the logic that can be optimised. Often the parameter value that is the most stable and has the most stable adjacent values in out of sample Excel testing is the one that is selected for live trading. However, slight changes in market behaviour can make this a sub-optimal choice in real time. Automation of a trading model offers an alternative - namely the simultaneous trading of a range of best performing parameter values in order to reduce optimisation risk. Workflow considerations mean that scenario isn't feasible for a human trader, but an automated Excel solution can make light work of it.

Grasping these opportunities requires an automation tool that is transparent to the trader, doesn't involve heavyweight programming and has an intuitive workflow. The obvious way of accomplishing this is an Excel component that makes automated connections behind the scenes between trading models and the required markets - without the need for the trader to worry about any of the underlying plumbing. So all he/she has to do is select a strategy from their list of pre-built trading models, choose the desired market and position size, click "Run" and allow the automation component to take care of all the entries and exits.

The trick here is to accomplish this without disrupting the trader's existing workflow. If a trader is accustomed to running their mechanical models in an Excel GUI they have already built, they don't want to have to waste time learning a new layout. Therefore, any automation component needs to be in a format that can be dropped transparently into an existing Excel workbook. It then runs invisibly in the background monitoring the status of the trader's existing mechanical models and whenever one of those flags a buy/sell condition it executes the requisite order(s).

Simple automation from within Excel obviously has a lot to offer where orders are of a size unlikely to create market impact. However, for larger orders or illiquid markets, an additional algorithmic execution element is desirable. So rather than just specifying a simple buy or sell as the response to a trade signal, the trader can also select a suitable execution algorithm to handle the order.

An additional benefit here is that Excel's ability to nest 'if' statements allows a further level of sophistication. A chain of 'if' statements can be used to automatically choose the most appropriate execution algorithm for a particular trading signal. For example: "If a trading model A flags an order for market B before C time of day and the order size is less than D shares, use execution Algo X - otherwise use Algo Y".

Segregation and overlay

In the context of trade automation, Excel's ability to run multiple instances of itself presents further opportunities. For example, trading models for individual market types (such as equities, futures or FX) can be run in separate Excel instances.

From a trader's perspective, this is ergonomically easier than having to flip among different workbooks or worksheets in the same single instance of Excel in order to monitor activity. A further advantage is that a separate instance of Excel can be run that handles just risk management overlay by monitoring the other instances.

Are you sure about that?

A potential inflexibility with automating mechanical trading models in Excel relates to deciding whether a condition can be true instantaneously (i. e. the models reacts to each new data tick) or whether it only responds to values at the close of a predefined bar length (such as 5 or 10 minutes).

Real life isn't quite so convenient - a single blip above a target level may not offer the signal confirmation a trader requires, while having to wait for the close of a 10 minute bar may see the alpha opportunity missed. Therefore there is a need for any Excel trade automation component to offer time based confirmation functionality, e. g. "The long entry condition has gone from false to true - and has remained true for 35 seconds".

This functionality also allows trade signal strength to be allied to position size. For example, for each defined unit of time an entry or exit condition remains true it could be deemed stronger and an additional number of contracts or shares can be automatically bought/sold.

Being able to build and back test trading models in Excel and then deploy them automatically in live trading is a huge benefit for any Excel power user. However, it still omits one vital step - real time simulated (or paper) trading.

The final piece in the Excel trade automation jigsaw is to be able to conduct this type of simulated trading and then once it is satisfactorily completed switch immediately into live production without any re-coding or re-plumbing being required.

Conclusion

Automation of trading models within Excel can deliver value on multiple levels. In addition to the generic advantages of productivity, workflow and risk management, the right automation tool can turn Excel into a complete integrated development, testing and automated/algorithmic trading environment.

By the way, if you're looking for this tool - it's called Tradebook Order Builder.

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Trading strategies of corporate insiders

Trading strategies of corporate insidersSimilar Publications

Trading Strategies of Corporate Insiders*

Olga Lebedevaa Ernst Maugb Christoph Schneiderc

April 4, 2012

We analyze the trading strategies of corporate insiders along three dimensions: (1) when

they break up their trades into sequences of multiple transactions, (2) how long they take

to complete their trades, and (3) if they adapt their trading decisions to the liquidity of the

market. The literature develops two complementary theories of optimal trading strategies:

Information-based arguments predict that insiders trade faster if they compete with other

insiders for exploiting the same information. By contrast, liquidity-based arguments pre -

dict the opposite. Liquidity-based arguments have more explanatory power and we find

strong evidence that insiders adapt their trading strategies to market liquidity. However,

based on disclosure-day returns we classify about one in seven trades as information-based

and these trades do complete faster than liquidity-based trades in the presence of competi -

tion from other insiders, in line with information-based arguments.

JEL classifications: G14, G34, G38

Keywords: Trade splitting, block trading, insider trading, Sarbanes-Oxley, liquidity,

informed trading, stealth trading

* An earlier version of this paper was circulated as “Stealth Trading by Corporate Insiders.” We thank Ut -

pal Bhattacharya, Thierry Foucault, Eric Theissen, and Bohui Zhang as well as seminar participants at

the University of Mannheim, National University of Singapore, and Singapore Management University

for discussions and advice. We thank the collaborative research centers SFB 504 “Rationality Concepts,

Decision Making and Economic Modeling” and TR/SFB 15 “Governance and the Efficiency of Econom -

ic Systems” at the University of Mannheim and the Rudolf von Bennigsen-Foerder foundation for finan -

cial support.

a University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany. E-mail: lebedevacorporate-finance -

mannheim. de. Tel: +49 621 181 2278.

b University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany. E-mail: maugcorporate-finance-mannheim. de.

Tel: +49 621 181 1952.

c University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany. E-mail: schneidercorporate-finance -

mannheim. de. Tel: +49 621 181 1949.

1 Introduction

In this paper we analyze the trading strategies of corporate insiders. Specifically, we are inter -

ested in why and how insiders break up their trades into a number of smaller transactions.

Two distinct but complementary theoretical approaches in the literature develop models of

insiders’ trading strategies. The first approach is based on the notion that insiders possess pri -

vate information and that their trading strategies are primarily designed to optimally exploit

their informational advantage. Theoretical formulations of this information-based view of in -

sider trading go back to Kyle (1985), who shows how insiders could optimally profit from

their informational advantage by spreading their transactions dynamically over time.1 Barclay

and Warner (1993) labeled this strategy “stealth trading” and tested its implications by look -

ing at the relationship between announcement returns and transaction sizes. The second ap -

proach is based on the notion that insiders trade for liquidity reasons and break up their trades

to minimize the price impact of their trades. The analysis of these liquidity-based trading

strategies is more recent and goes back to Bertsimas and Lo (1998) and Vayanos (1999,

2001).2 To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first paper that explicitly tests the implica -

tions for trading strategies of this second class of models and that provides different and more

direct tests of the earlier, information-based models. The theoretical approaches are not mutu -

ally exclusive and we find some evidence consistent with both. However, overall, liquidity -

based theories have more explanatory power with respect to insiders’ trading strategies com -

pared to information-based arguments.

Studying the trading behavior of corporate insiders is particularly pertinent in this con -

text because both motives we consider play an important role: The trades of corporate insiders

are often based on informational advantages; they are also typically large, which creates li -

quidity motivations to break up trades. Moreover, insider transactions are well documented

and therefore provide an ideal testing ground. However, a more important and highly relevant

institutional aspect of insider trading for our purpose is that often several insiders of the same

company trade at the same time. In a context in which multiple insiders compete for the use of

1 While many authors have expanded on Kyle’s original analysis, very few have taken up its dynamic aspect

and analyze strategies for how traders with long-lived information break up their trades over time. The most

important extension for our purposes is Holden and Subrahmanyam (1992) and Foster and Viswanathan

(1994, 1996), who consider multiple competing traders. We discuss their model and later extensions in more

detail below.

2 Other approaches include Almgren (2003), Almgren and Chriss (2001), He and Mamaysky (2005), Obizhae -

va and Wang (2005), Huberman and Stanzl (2005), and Schied and Schoneborn (2009). The papers differ

with respect to the assumed objective of the insider and with respect to the details of the price formation pro -

cess, which is typically assumed to be an exogenous process that combines temporary as well as permanent

price impact. Vayanos (1999) derives prices and price impact endogenously from the model.

the same information, or demand liquidity in the same stock, the empirical predictions of in -

formation-based theories and liquidity-based theories differ sharply. Holden and Subrahman -

yam (1992) extend Kyle’s model to a setting with multiple informed traders and show that

insiders trade more aggressively if other insiders trade on the same long-lived information at

the same time because they become competitors for the exploitation of the informative signal

and enjoy an informational advantage only as long as the information has not been incorpo -

rated into prices through the trades of other insiders.3 By contrast, liquidity-based arguments

imply that insiders extend their trading horizons and trade more slowly if they know that other

insiders trade in the same direction at the same time.4 In this case, other insiders demand li -

quidity in the same market, which increases temporary price impact, makes trading more cost -

ly, and moves the trade-off between immediacy and the desire to avoid price impact towards

the second objective. For settings with a single trader we do not obtain such contrasting pre -

dictions because both theories imply that traders spread transactions over a certain period of

time, typically at a decreasing rate.

We study a sample of 1.85 million transactions by more than 99.000 insiders in the

United States between 1996 and 2008. We first show that most of these transactions indeed

form sequences that result from breaking up larger trades. We then analyze two aspects of the

way in which insiders split their trades. First, we analyze the length of transaction sequences

in terms of calendar time (trade duration) and argue that trade duration relates most closely to

the predictions of the different theories described above. Second, we analyze when blocks are

split into sequences of smaller trades at all (trade splitting). In both cases, we measure the de -

gree of asymmetric information by using disclosure day returns of insiders’ trades and use

abnormal returns to classify trades as either informed or not-informed. Based on this measure,

13.5% of trades are informed. We distinguish days on which multiple insiders trade in the

same direction at the same time from days on which only one insider trades. We find that in -

siders trade more slowly and break up trades more and into longer sequences whenever multi -

ple insiders trade at the same time, which is consistent with the predictions of liquidity-based

models of strategic trading, but inconsistent with information-based models. By contrast, in -

3 See also Foster and Viswanathan (1994, 1996) who also investigate the case in which the signals of two

competing insiders are not perfectly correlated. Then the prediction mentioned above holds only for the

common component of insiders‘ signals. Important extensions of this framework allow for the possibility that

information is disclosed (Huddart, Hughes, and Levine 2001) and that it becomes stale (Bernhardt and Miao,

4 Note that the opposite happens in Vayanos‘ (1999) model, because in his framework additional traders sup -

ply additional liquidity and reduce price impact since their endowment shocks are uncorrelated, whereas in

our setting the opposite is the case. To the best of our knowledge, no model in the literature extends the li -

quidity-based argument to a multiple-trader context. We provide such an extension in Appendix B.

formed trades, which are associated with large disclosure day returns, are shorter and these

trades tend to be split more. Competition from other insiders actually reduces the trade dura -

tion from informed trades, in line with the predictions of information-based models. We con -

clude that these models also have significant explanatory power, although information-related

effects tend to be economically much smaller than liquidity-related effects.

We formulate several other hypotheses based on both theoretical approaches and inves -

tigate a range of other variables that capture the liquidity of the market, whether insiders are

trading on the short side of the market, and whether trades take place before or after earnings

announcements. We group trades by the category of insiders (CEO, other officers, etc.),

which is most likely related to the amount of information insiders possess. The most im -

portant findings are that the least informed insiders who have no operational role in the firm

and who have to file their trades only because their shareholdings exceed 10% split most and

have the longest trade duration. We also find some evidence that trade splitting for informa -

tional reasons and the competition for the use of privileged information is somewhat more

prevalent before the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley act (SOX) than in the later period of our

Next, we investigate how insiders adapt their trading strategies in response to changes

in the market for the firm’s stock. In particular, we hypothesize that insiders do not simply

follow mechanical trading strategies, but they respond to changes in market liquidity by

avoiding low-liquidity days and trading more on days on which liquidity is high. We find

strong evidence for this liquidity-timing hypothesis. The effective spread is higher by a factor

of seven and our measure of price impact is higher by a factor of three on days where insiders

do not trade compared to days where they trade, and for this comparison we only include non -

trading days that we consider close to days on which insiders trade. Also, within the subsam -

ple of days on which insiders trade, insiders trade more on days on which liquidity is higher.

We contribute to the literature in several ways. To the best of our knowledge, we are the

first to analyze strategic trading by corporate insiders empirically and also the first to provide

empirical tests for the contrasting implications of information-based and liquidity-based stra -

tegic trading models.5 Keim and Madhavan (1995) analyze trading strategies for a sample of

21 institutions and find a positive relationship between trade duration and block size. Howev -

er, they do not analyze how traders compete for the use of information or liquidity and, unlike

5 Our definition of strategic trading is different from that in Betzer, Gider, Metzger, and Theissen (2011), who

analyze the relationship between insider trades and trade reporting. Our notion of strategic trading allows for

the possibility that trades are intentionally not broken up at all.

them, we find that trades are broken up more in more liquid markets, which is consistent with

the notion that illiquid markets impose fixed costs on trades and therefore deter trade splitting.

Chan and Lakonishok (1995) analyze how 37 institutions spread their trades over several days

and how their strategies affect price impact and execution costs. There is a large later litera -

ture on the price impact and the information content of large block trades, but this literature

does not explicitly analyze when and how trades are broken up.6 All these papers study small

proprietary data sets provided by institutions that include identifiers for individual traders, in -

formation that is normally not available, whereas we can rely on a large, comprehensive data

Barclay and Warner (1993) make indirect inferences about the relationship between

trading strategies and information by relating trade size to associated price changes for a sam -

ple of tender offer announcements. They find that most trades are small, but most of the cu -

mulative price change is associated with medium-sized trades. They hypothesize that in -

formed traders break up large trades into smaller transactions in order to camouflage their in -

formational advantage and interpret their finding as evidence for “stealth trading,” the label

they introduced for trade splitting for informational reasons. The literature on stealth trading

follows Barclay and Warner’s methodology.7 The difficulty with this methodology is the joint

hypothesis problem inherent in their argument. If informed traders happen to use medium -

sized single trades, then these trades may not represent large trades that were split. The ad -

vantage of our empirical strategy is that it relies on data for which the identity of the trader is

known so that we can reconstruct transaction sequences.8

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The following section briefly de -

scribes the institutional framework of insider trading in the United States and how we con -

struct our data set. Section 2.2 shows that insiders break up large trades into sequences of

smaller transactions. Section 3 analyzes trade duration and Section 4 performs probit regres -

sions to analyze when insiders break up their trades. Section 5 tests the liquidity-timing hy -

6 See Holthausen, Leftwich, and Mayers (1987, 1990) and Keim and Madhavan (1996). Later papers focus in

particular on price impact and the slope of demand curves, e. g. Kaul, Mehrotra, and Morck (2000) and

Wurgler and Zhuravskaya (2002). For a recent empirical analysis of trading strategies and price impact see

Almgren et. al. (2005).

7 See Chakravarty (2001), Chakravarty, Kalev, and Pham (2005), and Anand and Chakravarty (2007) for ap -

plications of this methodology to different markets. Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang (2008) extends this method -

ology to short sales and finds that large trades are more informative than medium-sized trades. See also Al -

exander and Peterson (2007) on stealth trading and trade size clustering.

8 Some of the papers mentioned above reconstruct transaction sequences, e. g. Chan and Lakonishok (1995),

Keim and Madhavan (1996), and Almgren et. al. (2005).

pothesis and Section 6 concludes. The appendix contains the descriptions of our variables and

a theoretical model that analyzes competition for liquidity.

2 Construction of the data set and the existence of

trade splitting

According to Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, all insiders have to disclose

their transactions to the SEC. Insiders are direct and indirect beneficial owners of more than

ten percent of any class of equity securities and any director or officer of the issuer of equity

securities (Section 16(a)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, SEC rule 16a-2). Until

August 2002, insiders had to report their transactions on a monthly basis within 10 days after

the end of each calendar month in which the transaction occurred (Form 4), which gave insid -

ers up to forty days to disclose their trades. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) changed this

practice. Since August 29, 2002, insiders have to report their trades within two business days

(SEC rule 16a-3(g)). Small purchases or sales that do not add up to more than $10,000 within

six months are exempt from these reporting requirements (SEC rule 16a-6). These small ac -

quisitions are not reported on Form 4 as usual insider transactions but on Form 5, which has

to be filed only within 45 days after the issuers fiscal year end (SEC rule 16a-3(f)).

2.1 Construction of the data set

Our data source for insider transactions is the Insider Filing Data Feed (IFDF) provided by

Thomson Reuters. IFDF collects information on three forms insiders have to file with the

SEC: Form 3 (“Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership of Securities”), Form 4 (“Statement

of Changes of Beneficial Ownership of Securities”), and Form 5 (“Annual Statement of Bene -

ficial Ownership of Securities”). We include all open market purchases and sales as well as

private transactions between January 1, 1996 and December 31, 2008 with complete data (in -

which insiders trade in different directions on the same day (0.8% of the original sample) and

for which the transaction data on IFDF are incomplete (0.3%). We delete these transactions.

In order to avoid that our analysis is influenced by computer-executed trades, we exclude

transactions for which the number of shares traded is not a multiple of ten. These odd -

numbered trades form 14.4% of our original sample and we suspect that many of these trades

are initiated by computerized algorithms. Excluding them probably biases our results against

liquidity-based theories because trading in multiples of 500, 1000, or 5000 shares has been

associated with stealth trading (Alexander and Peterson, 2007). Furthermore, we aggregate all

transactions of the same insider, in the same stock, in the same direction, on the same day that

are executed at the same price. These transactions are most likely broken up in the process of

trade execution and we prefer to treat them as one transaction. Neither the exclusion of odd -

numbered trades nor the aggregation of same-price trades affects any of our conclusions. We

are left with 1,849,513 transactions by 99,413 insiders of 11,013 firms, or 56.5% of the raw

data. Of these 20.3% are purchases and 79.7% are sales.

For all microstructure variables, we use the TAQ database, provided by the NYSE, to

extract the necessary intraday transaction data. For each trade we assign the bid and ask

quotes prevailing at least one second before the trade took place.9

2.2 The existence of trade splitting

Definition of trade splitting. We regard a transaction as a part of a sequence of transactions

from a split trade if there is a subsequent transaction in the same direction and by the same

insider before or on the same day on which the first transaction is disclosed. If two trades in

the same direction are separated by a trade in the opposite direction, or if the first trade has

been disclosed, we start a new sequence. The motivation for this definition is that trade split -

ting only helps insiders to conceal information as long as the transaction has not been dis -

closed. Our definition is probably conservative. Huddart, Hughes, and Levine (2001) analyze

a model in which insiders have to disclose their trades after every trading round and find that

this disclosure requirement induces insiders to play mixed strategies and to garble the infor -

mation from disclosures by trading in the opposite direction. Hence, insiders may interrupt

transaction sequences in the same direction with a transaction in the opposite direction to mis -

lead the market. Our definition therefore exaggerates the degree to which information-based

trading is faster, but does not invalidate our hypothesis tests. The argument of Huddart,

9 Henker and Wang (2005) consider this procedure to be more appropriate compared to the classical Lee and

Ready (1991) five-second rule. Bessembinder (2003) tries zero - to thirty-second delays in increments of five

seconds and does not find any differences in the results.

Hughes, and Levine also shows that insiders may still possess private information even after

they disclose their trades.

Disclosure requirements changed with SOX on August 29, 2002. However, insiders did

sometimes not comply with these regulations before and after the passage of SOX. We there -

fore use the actual rather than the mandated disclosure date to identify transaction sequences.

We define the maximum length of a transaction sequence to be 40 days. If the first transaction

of a sequence is not reported within 40 days, then we consider this sequence to be finished to

avoid sequences that stretch over extremely long periods. These 40 days define the upper le -

gal bound for reporting most insider trades before SOX became effective. We consider alter -

native definitions of trade splitting. In particular, we reran our regressions with shorter time

limits (7 days instead of 40 days) and find qualitatively and quantitatively very similar results

(not tabulated).

Definition of trade duration. The trade duration of transaction sequences is defined as

the weighted number of days between the first and the last transaction of the sequence, where

the weights are the number of shares traded in sequence s on date t:

(?) =. ???. ?.

This definition takes into account not only the number of days between the beginning and the

end of the transaction sequence but also the number of shares traded on each day. Under this

definition, trade duration decreases if the insider trades larger volumes during the first days of

the sequence compared to situations when the insider splits her transactions equally through -

out the sequence. The trade duration of a single trade is equal to one.

Next we show that trade splitting actually exists. The evidence in the extant literature is

indirect and does not establish a clear-cut criterion that defines trade splitting. We consider

the clustering of trades by the same person in the same direction as evidence for trade split -

ting. Absent trade splitting, the direction of insiders’ transactions should be uncorrelated over

time, i. e. if an insider executes purchases with probability p and sales with probability 1-p,

then this unconditional probability should be equal to the conditional probability given the

direction of the last transaction. We first perform univariate tests to see whether the uncondi -

tional probability and the conditional probability of a sale are the same, given the direction of

the previous transaction.

Panel A of Table 3 reports the results for univariate tests. We calculate the proportion of

transactions that have the same sign as the previous transaction. Since we need the sign of the

previous transaction, the calculations do not include the first transaction for each person. Ta -

ble 3 shows that trades cluster. In total, 20.3% of all transactions are purchases and 79.7% are

sales (see Table 2). In our baseline case, we do not impose a time limit within which the next

transaction has to occur. Conditional on the previous transaction being a sale (purchase), the

next transaction is also a sale (purchase) in 98.8% (96.8%) of all cases. We use a standard

Chi-square test and Fisher’s exact test to test whether the direction of trades is independent

from the direction of previous transactions and reject this hypothesis since the p-values are

below 0.01% in both cases. We repeat the analysis by requiring that the next transaction oc -

curs within a certain period of time, which we assume to be 183 days, 40 days, and 2 days of

the first transaction. The six months restriction is motivated by the short-swing rule, which

requires insider to disgorge all profits from trading in the opposite direction in shares of their

own company within six months. The 40-day restriction is motivated by pre-SOX disclosure

regulation, and the 2-day restriction is motivated by post-SOX disclosure regulation (see

above). We observe that insiders are more likely to trade in the same direction if transactions

are closer to each other, although these differences are economically insignificant.

In Panel B of Table 3 we address the same question with a standard Probit model to

make sure that transaction clustering cannot be attributed to exogenous factors that influence

the direction of trade. The dependent variable equals one if the transaction is a purchase, and

regress it on the same dummy variable for the previous transaction (LagPurchase). Many pa -

pers document the influence of investor sentiment on investment decisions of retail investors

and asset prices (e. g. Lee, Shleifer, and Thaler, 1991). In regression (2) in Table 3B we con -

trol for investor sentiment, by including Sentiment, the investor sentiment measure of Baker

and Wurgler (2006), as independent variables. The insider trading literature has shown that

insiders often act like contrarian investors.10 We therefore include two additional independent

variables in models (3) and (4): RunupCAR, the abnormal return over the 20 trading days be -

fore the transaction, and StockTercile, which is the tercile of the stock return in the calendar

month before the transaction of all sample companies with sufficient data for this period. Both

variables measure the relative development of firm’s stock price in the month before an insid -

er transaction. Model (5) includes all four control variables.

Across all these regressions, the coefficient of LagPurchase is between 92% and 94%,

which means that the conditional probability that the next transaction is again a purchase is at

least 92% if we evaluate the impact at the mean of all independent variables. This is economi -

10 Rozeff and Zaman (1998), Lakonishok and Lee (2002), Jenter (2005), and Fidrmuc, Korczak, and Korczak

(2009) find that insiders on aggregate are contrarian investors.

cally significantly different from its unconditional probability and statistically significant at

all conventional significance levels. The coefficient on Sentiment is positive and statistically

highly significant. The impact of StockTercile is negative, which shows that insiders are con -

trarians, as expected. The coefficient on RunupCAR changes signs once we enter the other

controls. We conclude from this analysis that trade splitting is pervasive. Insiders are much

more likely to purchase (sell) shares if the previous transaction was also a purchase (sale),

even after controlling for all factors that influence trade clustering.

We aggregate sequences of transactions and refer to them as aggregate trades. If we

analyze individual trades of a transaction sequence, we refer to them as single transactions.

The average trade duration for transaction sequences is 2 days (3.4 days pre-SOX and 1.4

days post-SOX) and varies between 1 and 20.6 days. Single transactions in a trading sequence

are only about one third as large as single trades (median size: $26,300 vs. $72,200 or 0.002%

vs. 0.013% as a percentage of all shares outstanding). Aggregate trades are almost four times

larger than single trades (median size: $255,300 vs. $72,200, or 0.047% vs. 0.013% of all

shares outstanding).

Table 2 provides summary statistics of all variables for our sample. We report summary

statistics of trades instead of single transactions because these are the unit of our analysis. The

1,849,513 insider transactions in our data set map into 471,241 trades. We identify 260,438

single trades and 210,803 aggregate trades (transaction sequences). For all variables, which

can change over a transaction sequence, we assign the value of the first transaction to the

whole sequence. We aggregate only Stake and Volume over the sequence.

2.3 Event study analysis

We apply standard event study analysis to disclosure day returns to measure the information

content of insider trades, which is an established methodology in the insider trading literature

(e. g. Lakonishok and Lee, 2001; Fidrmuc, Goergen, and Renneboog). We calculate cumula -

tive abnormal returns (CAR) by using the market model for different event windows between

equal-weighted return index, and the estimation window ranges over 200 trading days from

220 until 21 trading days prior to the disclosure day. We require at least 100 stock return ob -

servations for the parameter estimation.

The results for the event study are presented in Table 4. Similar to the prior literature on

insider trading we find that insider trades are informative. Disclosure day returns are signifi -

cant across all event windows for the pooled sample. We can also confirm the finding of

Brochet (2010) that post-SOX the CARs after disclosing purchases increased significantly,

whereas the reaction to sales became less negative. In line with the prior literature we find that

purchases usually lead to stronger market reactions, although this observation does not apply

to the longer event windows pre-SOX (e. g. Lakonishok and Lee, 2001; Jeng, Metrick, and

Zeckhauser, 2003).

3 What influences trade duration?

In this section, we analyze trade duration because it seems to be the feature of insiders’ trad -

ing strategies that is most closely related to the theoretical approaches we discuss in the Intro -

duction. We treat trade duration and trade splitting as two closely linked aspects of the same

phenomenon. Hence, this section contains most of our hypothesis development and the subse -

quent section on trade splitting will refer back to the hypotheses here.

Since we analyze trade duration, the main unit of analysis for this section is a sequence

of transactions and not an individual transaction itself. As mentioned in the Introduction, our

main tool to discriminate between information-based theories and liquidity-based theories of

optimal trading strategies is to focus on situations where several insiders trade simultaneous -

ly. Holden and Subrahmanyam (1992) show in the context of a Kyle (1985) model that insid -

ers trade more intensely or more aggressively if they compete for the use of the same infor -

mation at the same time. Foster and Viswanathan (1996) refine this argument by considering

the possibility that insiders have information that is positively, but not perfectly correlated.

Then insiders compete more intensely for that component of their information which they

have in common. We therefore have:

Hypothesis 1 (Informed trading with competition): Trade duration decreases if several in -

siders compete for exploiting the same long-lived information.

By contrast, liquidity-based arguments predict the opposite. We develop this argument more

formally in the context of a highly stylized model in Appendix B and provide the intuition

here. Assume two or more insiders wish to simultaneously sell a block of shares for liquidity

reasons in order to diversify their portfolios and the trades of the insiders have a temporary

impact on transaction prices.11 All insiders have a need to trade, for example because they

wish to reduce their exposure to the long-term uncertainty about the fundamental value of the

11 In our model and in the argument in the text we abstract from permanent price impact based on the notion

that insiders trade for liquidity reasons and have no privileged information. Including permanent price impact

would complicate but not change the basic argument.

stock.12 Then trading faster implies benefits from diversification as well as costs from incur -

ring additional temporary price impact. Consequently, each insider trades less and stretches

her transactions over a longer period of time if other insiders trade simultaneously in the same

direction. The intuition for this result is that simultaneous trading by other insiders increases

the slope of the residual demand function for each insider. The increased price impact in -

creases the costs of immediacy and therefore slows down trading by each insider.

Hypothesis 2 (Liquidity trading): (1) Trade duration increases if several insiders trade simul -

taneously in the same direction for liquidity reasons. (2) Trade duration decreases with the

volatility of the stock if insiders sell for liquidity reasons.

Information-based and liquidity-based explanations of optimal trading strategies therefore

have contrasting implications in a context in which multiple insiders trade at the same time. In

a setting in which only one insider trades, we cannot rely on the notion of trade splitting alone

to generate contrasting implications because both approaches imply that insiders stretch their

trades over time, although we can identify different factors that influence optimal trading

strategies, and these factors differ depending on the motive for trading.13 We therefore test the

implications for competition by insiders first and then develop additional hypotheses about

the impact of information and liquidity motives on optimal trading strategies.

Testing the implications of the two theoretical approaches requires us to distinguish in -

formation-based trades from liquidity-based trades and days on which insiders compete from

days for which this is not the case. We measure information content of trades using the two -

day cumulative abnormal announcement return on the day of and the day after the disclosure

of the first transaction in a sequence (CAR(0,1)). If an insider exploits private information, we

should see a stronger market reaction at the disclosure date. We define a dummy variable In -

formed, which equals one if the two-day cumulative abnormal return is greater in absolute

value than the standard deviation of stock returns in the month prior to the trade.14 We meas -

12 The model is in the spirit of Almgren and Chriss (2001), He and Mamaysky (2005), and Huberman and

Stanzl (2005), who all use some variant of a mean-variance framework to generate a trade-off between price

impact and immediacy.

13 It may be possible to generate implications about the dynamic profiles of trades. Kyle (1985) predicts that

monopolistic insider trades result in a constant speed of information resolution. Optimal liquidation strategies

without privileged fundamental information imply that insiders sell their stakes at a decreasing rate (e. g.

Vayanos, 2001). However, these predictions seem to be highly model-dependent and do not easily lend them -

selves to empirical testing.

14 We also investigated other measures of asymmetric information (e. g. earnings quality, RD). However,

these measures are only available annually or quarterly on the firm level and exhibit very low correlations

with our measure Informed. We believe that the asymmetric information component is most accurately

measured using ex post realized returns.

ure competition between insiders by defining the dummy variable MultipleInsiders, which is

one if more than one insider trades in the same direction on the same day, and zero otherwise.

We formulate additional hypotheses that motivate the inclusion of additional explanato -

ry variables below. We enter all these variables in one regression in order to avoid omitted

variable bias and collect the results in Table 5. Our baseline regression is model (1), which

regresses TradeDuration on the independent variables associated with our hypotheses. Mod -

els (2) to (5) perform two sample splits based on the direction of trade and on the passage of

the Sarbanes-Oxley act (SOX). The motivation for the sample split into purchases and sales is

motivated by the notion in the insider trading literature that purchases have a larger infor -

mation content compared to sales, which we validate below. The sample split into the pre - and

post-SOX period recognizes that SOX changed disclosure standards for insider trades (see

Section 2.1 above). The substantial reduction in the disclosure requirement from a maximum

of 40 days to only two business days reduces insiders’ ability to spread transactions over time

without disclosing their trades. We group variables in Table 5 by the associated hypothesis

and order them in the order in which we discuss them in the text. As an additional check,

models (6) and (7) in Table 5 regress the cumulative abnormal disclosure-date returns on the

same independent variables. These regressions allow us to identify which of the explanatory

variables is systematically associated with more information. This analysis is performed sepa -

rately for purchases and for sales in accordance with standard procedures in the insider trad -

ing literature (see Lakonishok and Lee, 2001; Fidrmuc, Goergen, and Renneboog, 2006).

3.1 Analysis

3.1.1 Competition for liquidity vs. competition for information

The main variable of interest in Table 5 is MultipleInsiders. The coefficient on MultipleInsid -

ers is always positive and highly significant at all conventional levels with t-statistics ranging

from 27.1 to 48.2. The presence of at least one insider who trades in the stock in the same di -

rection increases trade duration on average by 5.25% in the baseline regression (1). The effect

is about equally strong for purchases and for sales, but about three times stronger in relative

terms in the pre-SOX period (7.58% increase) compared to the post-SOX period (2.65% in -

crease). Since TradeDuration is much larger before SOX than after, the economic effect is

correspondingly even stronger in the pre-SOX period. The evidence therefore strongly sup -

ports the prediction of Hypothesis 2 that insiders compete for the same liquidity and spread

their trades over longer periods if other insiders trade at the same time. By contrast, the evi -

dence is inconsistent with the predictions of Hypothesis 1 and information-based models,

which cannot explain how insiders’ trading strategies respond to competition from other in -

However, Hypothesis 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive because some insider trades

may be motivated by information whereas others are motivated by liquidity reasons and the

result on MultipleInsiders then only shows that liquidity motivations are on average domi -

nant. The interaction of Informed and MultipleInsiders shows that this seems to be the case.

The coefficient is highly significant and negative, which suggests that insiders trade more ag -

gressively if there is competition from other insiders and their trades are motivated by the use

of privileged information. The coefficient on the interaction terms is almost exactly 25% of

the coefficient on MultipleInsiders for all regressions. The mean of Informed is 13.5% from

Table 2, which means that we classify only about one in seven trades as information-induced.

In the presence of competition, these information-based trades complete about 25% faster

compared to liquidity-motivated trades in the presence of competition. Hence, we also find

strong predictions for the models of Holden and Subrahmanyam (1992) and Foster and

Viswanathan (1996) that competition by informed insiders leads them to trade more aggres -

sively, but their prediction applies only to a minority of trades. Accordingly, the liquidity -

based arguments have more explanatory power on average even though the information-based

effects are economically and statistically significant.

Trades associated with several insiders are on average more informative. Regressions

(6) and (7) show that the coefficient on MultipleInsiders is always highly significant for these

regressions in which the dependent variable is the disclosure-day return. For purchases, the

effect is also economically significant with an 0.52% stronger increase of the stock price for

the announcement of purchases when more than one insider purchases at the same time,

whereas the effect is economically weak for sales with an 0.04% stronger decrease of the

stock price. This corroborates the notion in the insider trading literature that purchases tend to

be more information-motivated than sales.

The coefficient on Informed shows that trading duration for informed trades is generally

shorter by about 0.47% and this effect is slightly stronger for purchases than for sales and

concentrated entirely in the period after Sarbanes-Oxley. As we explained above, the models

we compare do not make direct predictions on trade duration but only on how trade duration

responds to competition. The post-SOX regulatory environment might have led insiders to

complete information-based trades faster whereas there was no corresponding need to accel -

erate liquidity-motivated trades.

Hypothesis 2 also predicts that liquidity-motivated trades complete faster if insiders are

exposed to more risk because the benefits of immediacy increase if the risk of the fundamen -

tal value of the shares is larger. We find not much evidence for this prediction. The coefficient

on Volatility is in fact positive but statistically and economically insignificant for four out of

five regressions. It has the predicted negative sign only in the post-SOX period and then it be -

comes statistically highly significant, although the economic effect is still small: the coeffi -

cient of -0.0095 implies that a one-standard deviation increase in Volatility reduces Trade -

Duration by only 0.4%.

3.1.2 Liquidity effects

Next, we investigate the impact of several variables that are associated with the liquidity of

the market and with insiders’ desire to trade on certain days but not on others. We hypothesize

that trade splitting is mainly a strategy to optimize liquidity so that insiders split their trades

more and trade over longer intervals of time if the market is less liquid or if they trade on the

short side of the market, i. e. they buy when other investors want to buy and sell when other

investors want to sell. Specifically, we hypothesize:

Hypothesis 3 (Stock liquidity): (1) Trade duration increases in the illiquidity of the stock. (2)

Trade duration increases if insiders trade on the short side of the market.

Liquidity is a somewhat elusive concept and the literature has developed different measures.15

We wish to use a measure that can be calculated on a daily basis. To conserve space we only

report results for the effective relative spread (EffectiveSpread) in Table 5. The results for

other liquidity measures (Amihud, Turnover, PriceImpact) are discussed in the robustness sec -

tion. EffectiveSpread is defined as

Q is the midpoint of the quotes and

tP is the transaction price (see Chordia, Roll, and Subrahmanyam, 2001). We average the

NEW SEC INSIDER TRADING RULES EASE PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION

The personal portfolios of corporate executives are typically weighted heavily with company stock, and financial advisors commonly recommend periodically selling some of that stock in order to better diversify the executive's portfolio. Corporate policies and insider trading rules traditionally have hampered such sales, but now the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued new rules that ease the process.

Generally, corporate insiders are limited in their ability to trade company shares for a variety of reasons, including the possession of material, nonpublic information, as well as company-imposed "blackout" periods when no trading is permissible. The new SEC rule, called Rule 10b5-1, allows the executive to prearrange a plan that can more effectively operate under these restrictions. Here's how it works.

Any 10b5-1 trading plan must be made at a time when the corporate insider does not possess material insider information (what's "material" remains somewhat ambiguous). Second, the more time the executive can put between creation of the plan and the actual trades, the better. Also, the plan must not conflict with any company insider trading rules, or with other federal or state corporate insider laws, such as "short-swing" trading rules under Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or Rule 144, which governs insider trading. The plan must be entered into in good faith, provide clear instructions for determining the number of shares, price and date on which the securities are to be purchased or sold, and the plan cannot permit the individual to exercise any subsequent influence over how, when or whether to effect transactions.

Assuming these restrictions are met, the executive can design and implement one of two trading strategies under the new SEC rule. One strategy is a nondiscretionary plan where the insider might specify that a certain number of shares be sold on a particular date. This might be in anticipation of a single event, such as the down payment for a home or the payment of college tuition, or on a scheduled basis such as the last trading day of each quarter for a certain number of quarters.

Should the executive become aware of material, nonpublic information in the interim between the institution of the plan and any given trading date, or upon the trade day itself, the trade can still be executed and the executive should be insulated from any violation of the insider trading rules. This is especially helpful to executives with soon-to-expire stock options which they might not be able to exercise and sell because they've suddenly come into material information.

The other strategy is for a third party to execute trades on behalf of the executive at any time the third party deems appropriate according to pre-determined guidelines set by the executive. For example, the insider might specify a threshold price at which a certain number or percentage of stock options is to be exercised and then sold. Or the stocks could be put in a trust and then sold at the third party's discretion.

The insider can modify the plan, as long as the insider is not aware of material, nonpublic information at the time of the modification. Another favorable element of these plans is that they can be terminated at any time, even if the insider has material insider information at the time. However, some commentators say that a pattern of terminations might jeopardize protection under the new rule, as the SEC mandates that these plans must be entered into in "good faith."

Each strategy has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, nondiscretionary trading means the executive could end up selling in a down market. Giving discretion to a third party could cause problems if the third party doesn't manage the trades to the insider's liking.

This is a new and somewhat complicated rule, so insiders should consult both corporate counsel and their financial advisor in order to be sure they establish a permissible plan and determine the best option. The rule has been used little to date, but some commentators expect the plans to pick up in popularity when the stock market rebounds. If executed properly, this will allow insiders to better manage and diversify away from their corporate stock, so that their overall portfolio is not so vulnerable to the market swings of their company and their industry

Trading strategies of corporate insiders why was the stock market up yesterday pse online stock game largest online trading sites

21 maj 2015, Opublikowane przez w kategorii Aktualnosci

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Online Trading strategies of corporate insiders

The anatomy of trading breakouts

The anatomy of trading breakoutsThe Anatomy Of Trading Breakouts

Breakout trading is used by active investors to take a position within a trend's early stages. Generally speaking, this strategy can be the starting point for major price moves, expansions in volatility and, when managed properly, can offer limited downside risk. Throughout this article, we'll walk you through the anatomy of this trade from start to finish and offer a few ideas to better manage this trading style.

As prices consolidate, various price patterns will occur on the price chart. Formations such as channels. triangles and flags are valuable vehicles when looking for stocks to trade. Aside from patterns, consistency and the length of time that a stock price has adhered to its support or resistance levels are important factors to consider when finding a good candidate to trade. (For more insight, check out Analyzing Chart Patterns .)

Entry Points

After finding a good instrument to trade, it is time to plan the trade. The easiest consideration is the entry point. Entry points are fairly black and white when it comes to establishing positions upon a breakout. Once prices are set to close above a resistance level, an investor will establish a bullish position. When prices are set to close below a support level, an investor will take on a bearish position.

To determine the difference between a breakout and a "fake out ", it is a good idea to wait for confirmation. For example, a fake out occurs when prices open beyond a support or resistance level, but by the end of the day, wind up moving back within a prior trading range. If an investor acts too quickly or without confirmation, there is no guarantee that prices will continue into new territory. For example, many investors look for above-average volume as confirmation or wait towards the close of a trading period to determine whether prices will sustain the levels they've broken out of. (For related reading, see Trading Failed Breaks .)

When planning target prices, look at the stock's recent behavior to determine a reasonable objective. When trading price patterns, it is easy to use the recent price action to establish a price target. For example, if the range of a recent channel or price pattern is six points, then that amount should be used as a price target to forward project once the stock breaks out (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Measuring a price target

Another idea is to calculate recent price swings and average them out to get a relative price target. If the stock has made an average price swing of four points over the last few price swings, this would be a reasonable objective.



Online The anatomy of trading breakouts

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April 25, 2015

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April 27, 2015

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3 binary options trading strategies for beginne

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3 gft binary options trading strategies for beginners

April 18, 2015

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Understanding insider trading

Understanding insider tradingUnderstanding Insider Trading

By Joshua Kennon. Investing for Beginners Expert

Thanks to his straight-forward approach and ability to simplify complex topics, Joshua Kennons series of lessons on financial statement analysis have been used by managers, investors, colleges and universities throughout the world. If an investment idea takes more than a few sentences, or cannot be explained to a reasonably intelligent fourth grader, youve moved into speculation, Joshua insists. Whether youre dealing with a public company such as McDonalds, or a private company such as Chanel, these are the types of firms that are easy to understand. You know where the sales originate, what the costs are, and how profits are generated. These are the types of enterprises that arent going to cause you to wake up in the middle of the night, breaking into a cold sweat because of the sub-prime crisis or esoteric securities trading in illiquid markets. Thats a huge advantage to growing your wealth. Focus on what you know, pay a fair price, and invest for the long-term.

Continue Reading Below

The Definition of Insider Trading

Insider trading occurs when someone makes an investment decision based on information that is not available to the general public. In some cases, the information allows them to profit, in others, avoid a loss. (In the Martha Stewart - ImClone scandal, the latter happened to be the case.)

Insider trading was not considered illegal at the beginning of the twentieth century; in fact, a Supreme Court ruling once called it a “perk” of being an executive. After the excesses of the 1920’s, the subsequent decade of depression, and the resulting shift in public opinion, it was banned, with serious penalties being imposed on those who engaged in the practice.

The Penalties for Insider Trading

Depending upon the severity of the case, insider trading penalties generally consist of a monetary penalty and jail time. In recent years, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has moved to ban insider trading violators from serving as an executive at any publicly traded company.

What Constitutes Criminal Insider Trading

Just what constitutes insider trading? The question is much trickier than it seems. In order for the SEC to prosecute someone for insider trading, they must prove that the defendant had a “fiduciary duty” to the company and / or intended to personally gain from buying or selling shares based upon the insider information.

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This test of duty, however, was significantly weakened by the Supreme Courts United States vs. OHagan ruling. In 1988, James OHagan was a lawyer at the firm of Dorsey Whitney. After the firm began representing Grand Metropolitan PLC, which planned to launch a tender offer for Pillsbury, Mr. OHagan acquired a large number of options in the company. Following the announcement of the tender offer, the options soared, resulting in a four million dollar gain. After being found guilty on fifty-seven charges, the conviction was overturned on appeal. The case eventually found its way to the Supreme Court where the conviction was reinstated (for more information, read Getting the Appropriate Misappropriators: An Analysis of the Supreme Courts Decision in United States vs. OHagan ).

Barry Switzer, then-Oklahoma football coach, was prosecuted by the SEC in 1981 after he and his friends purchased shares in Phoenix Resources, an oil company. Switzer was at a track meeting when he overhead a conversation between executives concerning the liquidation of the business. He purchased the stock at around $42 per share, and later sold at $59, making around $98,000 in the process. The charges against him were later dismissed by a federal judge on a “lack of evidence”.

On the other hand, based on precedence in other cases, Switzer probably would have been fined and served jail time if one of his players was the son or daughter of the executives, and mentioned the tip to him off-handedly. The line between ‘criminal’ and ‘lucky’, it seems, is almost entirely blurred in such cases.

Section 16 Requirements: Safeguards Against Insider Trading

In order to prevent illegal insider trading, Section 16 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 requires that when an "insider" (defined as all officers, directors and 10% owners) buys the corporations stock and sells it within six months, all of the profits must go to the company. By making it impossible for insiders to gain from small moves, much of the temptation of insider trading is removed. Company insiders are also required to disclose changes in the ownership of their positions including all purchases and dispositions of shares.



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Topic online trading academy

Topic online trading academyOnline Trading Academy 13 Sep 2012 09:24 #3

Posts:181 Thank you received: 61

I attended the free online seminar, some interesting stuff there but not much to talk about.

At the end of the webinar they offered their Core Strategy Course online that will last 4 days (about 3 hours each).

The idea to spend 199$ (it was at 299 but for some system glitch I got it at 199 before they sorted it out) for something that they sell at 1,995$ peaked my interest. I payed up and will attend starting the 24th of September.

I might get something good out of OTA or I might not but, it does not matter.

This was before my finding out about AG and registering here, I would not have payed OTA otherwise.

The INFO AND HELP we can get here is incredible. All we need is just time to digest it all and time to learn to see.

I am now part of AceGazette, and this is where I will learn the most.



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Buy forex online india pvtlimited

Buy forex online india pvtlimitedBuy Forex Online India Pvt. Limited

Some Affordable To Visit Destinations To Visit From India

The world is full of amazing travel destinations that offer great delight to the travellers without draining their bank accounts. In this blog by Buy Forex Online India Pvt Limited-one of the leading forex dealers in India . we are going to explore cheap and budget friendly travel destinations for that ultimate globetrotting pleasure.

If you like to experience pristine beaches, delectable sea food, resort living, and one of the greatest diving experience, without ruining your travel budget then Fiji should be your next travel destination. Fiji is an inexpensive travel destination that offers cheap guesthouses, transportation, and activities, making it a popular for budget travellers.

Central America

Want to trek through the jungle, roam ancient ruins, surf, and eat exotic food? Central America is the place where you will find them all. With the most budget friendly hotels, cheap public transport and beer; this place is surely a traveller’s delight.

Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova) is one of the best options for those who wish to experience Europe on budget. This part of Europe has the charm and beauty of the west without the high prices associated with those ‘famous’ European tourist destinations. Before you head to this destination, make sure you buy your forex in advance from a reputed dealer like BuyForexOnline. The company offers the best forex rates and offers convenience like never before.

Visit Portugal and experience beautiful beaches, authentic wine, delicious food, stunning cliffs, historic places, and the best hospitality, without the hefty price tags. It is one of the lesser known travel destinations, but surprises visitors with its beauty.

Every budget friendly traveller recommends Thailand as their first choice. This amazing Asian tourist destination is the heart of backpacking in Southeast Asia and you can experience some of the best street stalls, local buses, wildlife and other attractions.

There are many travel destinations in the world that can be explored on a budget without sacrificing your comfort. So, start planning and do consider these amazing tourist destinations and not to forget, always choose BuyForexOnline to buy foreign exchange online at the most affordable rates.

Some Tips To Make Most Of Your Money When Travelling Abroad

Smart travel planning is not just about deciding the best ways to enjoy your foreign travel; it is also about finding the best ways to buy foreign exchange and making great savings on your travel money. A bit of pre-trip planning and a few simple things are all you need to enjoy big savings. Here are some great tips to make most of your travel money, brought to you by BuyForexOnline-the reputed online platform to get the best USD exchange rates and other currencies at the most affordable rates.

There are many tourist destinations across the world that have some of the best street foods to offer. So, this time when you plan to visit a country, learn about its local food and hit the streets for great authentic local food. This way you will not just save a lot of money, but will also get chance to interact with the locals.

Buy Forex Online

Money is obviously one of the main requirements of your travel. So, make sure you get the best deal, instead of buying forex from traditional forex dealers and paying hefty commissions, buy Forex from online forex websites, like-BuyForexOnline. Whether you wish to buy Euro at the best Euro exchange rate or any other currency for your foreign travel-you get the best rates here compared to any other forex dealers.

Say no to excess baggage

Excess baggage means paying additional charges at airports. So travel light, pack only the essentials.

Carry reusable water bottles

Buying water can be quite expensive and can add to your travel expenses, so carry a reusable bottle that can be filled with clean and drinkable water. You will not just be able to save money, but will also help save the environment.

Book flights in advance

Flight rates can rise sharply close to peak travel season, so book well in advance. Book in off-season, and avoid travelling on weekends.

Use these smart travel hacks for your next trip and youre sure to get the maximum value for your money. For more such travel tips or to get the best foreign exchange services online, visit - buyforexonline/

Online forex marketplaces like BuyForexOnline are one-stop-shops that bring you the best foreign exchange services at the most affordable rates.

Travel Smart With These Tips In Mind

The spread of globalization has made travel one of the most favourite activities of people. According to BuyForexOnline-the leading website in India to buy foreign currency . in the past few years, the number of people going abroad has increased many folds. New age people specially set aside a budget so that they can travel to their dream destinations. Apart from airfare and accommodation, travel expenses can range from enjoying exotic meals to local souvenirs. No matter what the destination, travellers need to think of the best options to spend money abroad. Read on for some tips on how to travel smart and save money, brought to you by Buy Forex Online India Pvt Limited.

Know the best currency exchange options before you pack your bags

Money is one of the most important things needed for travel, but hefty commission related to foreign exchange can leave a bitter aftertaste. However, travellers can easily save a good amount of money by conducting a pre-trip research on the best ways to exchange money. While local currency is a necessity in many places, it’s not safe to carry lots of money in cash. Experts suggest, carrying some amount of cash and prepaid travel card from a reputed card dealer can ensure you get the best travel experience without worries. BuyForexOnline offers the best Forex card in India that offers users great saving and complete peace of mind. Other options to carry money abroad include-ATM cards, credit cards, travellers cheques but ATM and credit cards charge a lot of commission on the transactions, whereas travellers cheques, with modern methods of money exchange are slowing becoming a thing of past.

General tips for a hassle free trip

Research your destination. Know the culture, laws; do’s and don’ts.

Register your travel and contact details before leaving.

Get travel insurance

Copy your documents and e-mail them to yourself

No matter where you travel or for how long, it is important to be fully prepared. Pre-trip research and planning may seem daunting to some, but eventually it will turn you into a savvy traveller. For more travel tips, or to buy foreign currency at the best exchange rates . visit - buyforexonline/

How To Carry Money Abroad And Keep It Safe?

When you start planning for your overseas travel, one of the first questions that comes to your mind is-‘How am I going to carry my money abroad and keep it safe?’

There is no definite answer to this question, as each method has its own pros and cons. The experts at BuyForexOnline-the best website to buy Euros in India and other foreign currencies has compiled a list of methods to help you choose the best method for your foreign travel. Let’s take a look.

It is always good to carry some cash with you, to cover immediate expenses when you land, such as taxi fare, mineral water etc. But, on the downside, there is always a risk of theft or loss. Also, the unspent amount will have to be converted back to Rupees. So, a good way would be to carry only a limited amount of cash and carry a prepaid travel card/ATM card for rest of the expenses.

Prepaid travel card

It is one of the best ways to carry money abroad. Whether, you wish to buy Pounds in India . or Euros, you can load it when the currency rate is favourable, plus it is a secure way of carrying money and can be easily reloaded on the go. However, some traditional shopkeepers/hotels may not accept it. So, always carry some cash with you.

It is also very secure way of carrying money abroad, but the high conversion fees can burn a hole in your pocket. So, if you want to use this option, make sure you have enough balance in your bank account to cover up your entire travel expenses. Also, make sure it is enabled for use abroad.

It is a secure way of spending abroad, but there is a fixed charge, every time you use your card, but if you are a loyal card user, you may become eligible for offers from the card provider, but still the conversion charges may be very high.

When it comes to buying forex for your travel, it all depends on your usage and needs. A student will have different needs from a business traveller; so it is always good to talk to a forex expert like the experts at BuyForexOnline to know your options and get the best deals suited for your needs.

So, if you wish to buy foreign currency for your travel, visit buyforexonline/ and talk to their experienced forex experts today!

How Rupee Crash Impacts Travel Frequency In India

Like many people, if you think Rupee slump will affect travel frequency in India, then here’s a news to bring smile on your face. According to the forex experts, Rupee slump can have both positive and negative impact on travel frequency in India. How? Read on to find out, through this informative article by BuyForexOnline-the best online destination for money exchange in India .

Impact on outbound travel

In the past few months, travel costs for holidaying abroad have gone up due to the depreciating value of the Rupee. As a result, people are not just shortening their vacation, but also opting for holidays within the country rather than going abroad. However, the experts feel that considering the upcoming vacation season, the situation is going to improve, and overseas travel will again see an increase during that season.

Impact on inbound travel

While outbound may have suffered due to Rupee slump, travel experts believe that India has become a lucrative destination for inbound travellers due to Rupee slump. This has compelled foreign travellers to shift focus towards India viewing the country as an affordable and practical travel destination.

What to do if you still want to travel abroad?

There are good options like you can buy Forex online to get the best money exchange rates ; you can opt for budget friendly destinations like Belarus, Paraguay, Nepal, Cambodia etc that offer great value in lieu of Indian currency. There are other ways of cutting down your travel costs, like-choosing a family owned guest house instead of a luxurious hotel, travel in off season etc.

Currency rates fluctuate second to second, so a good way to stay insulated from currency rate fluctuations is to opt for prepaid travel cards, which can be loaded when the currency rates are favourable, giving you the best value for your money. So, what are you waiting for? Contact BuyForexOnline-one of the best forex dealers in India to get the best deals on forex services and smart prepaid travel cards that make your travel hassle free, giving you complete peace of mind when you are travelling abroad.

Countries Where You Can Spend Indian Rupees Lavishly And Feel Like A King

If you love travelling, but are worried by falling Rupees; you would be happy to know that there are many wonderful places around the world that you can explore, even with falling Rupees and spend lavishly on your travel, without any worries. Let’s try to find out about such places, through this article by BuyForexOnline-India’s leading marketplace for foreign exchange online .

One of the best things about Bolivia is that you can get cheap hotel deals here, and it is very pocket friendly travel destination. It’s a great place to eat, drink, stay, enjoy hot springs; hence you get great value for your money, despite the currency difference.

Paraguay is one of the cheapest countries in the world. It is a good place to enjoy beaches in summer season and it’s a beautiful place that offers great blend of culture and tradition. Here you can get cheap deals on hotels, rents, food and at some places you can even enjoy beer for free. Excited to visit this place? Then, pick up your mouse and visit BuyForexOnline for currency exchange online and be ready to explore this amazing destination.

If you want to experience the beauty of Europe in budget, then you must definitely think of visiting Belarus. It is a comparatively cheaper country and lets you experience Soviet architecture and ambience at its best.

If you are a fan of Asian temples and architecture then Cambodia is the country, you should definitely visit. You get very cheap deals on food, drinks and hotels and the best part is that this place has some of the best places of historical importance.

Indian Rupees is stronger than Nepalese Rupees, which means you can spend like a king here and get to see some of the best natural sights, temples and of course-the mighty Mt. Everest!

Apart from these destinations, there are several destinations you can visit on a shoestring budget. However, if there is an expensive destination you want to visit, but afraid of spending a lot of money, you can try saving money from other sources, for example, by visiting BuyForexOnline to get the forex services at the most affordable rates.

Get Best Currency Exchange Rates Before Going On A Foreign Trip

Optimal planning of your tour budget is very important, to pull off attractive deals on hotel bookings, flights to international destinations, rentals and to get the best exchange rates . Before planning a trip to a foreign country, it is very important to know the best methods of changing money. So, if you are planning an overseas trip soon, these tips by BuyForexOnline will help you get the best exchange rates.

Avoid changing money at the airport

Exchanging your money at the airport can be very expensive as you get the worst currency exchange rates. It is advisable to carry some cash to cover up immediate expenses, such as taxi, food etc. You can visit some reputed forex websites like BuyForexOnline to get the best rates for foreign currency exchange in India and services such as prepaid travel cards that are safe, convenient and the best way to carry money abroad.

Buy Forex Online

Using a good online currency exchange service, like BuyForexOnline before you embark on your trip is a very good idea to make your trip convenient and stress free. That way you will arrive at your destination fully prepared, to enjoy your travel to the fullest.

ATM/Credit card

Using a debit card or a credit card enables a person to withdraw high amounts of money, consequently offering lower rates and lessening transaction costs, but there are hassles involved like-one needs to check with his/her bank to make sure that the card(s) can be used abroad.

Prepaid travel cards

To get the best currency exchange rates . avoid paying in the local currency with your debit or credit card; instead use a smart prepaid travel card that offers the best exchange rate and doesn’t incur high transaction charges. They are a secure and the most convenient way of spending money abroad.

Lack of proper planning and knowledge of currency exchange rates lead to wasted money, wasted time, missed opportunities and lots of stress during travel. So, don’t ruin your trip by buying Forex from sources that can unnecessarily waste your money. Visit-buyforexonline/ and get amazing forex services at the most affordable rates!

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Buy Forex Online India Pvt Limited is one of a leading online Foreign Exchange services company in India. They are the first online forex services company offering buying of foreign currencies at the ease of your home or office and get it delivered at your door step. For more details contact them today or call them on +91 9945613740 to avail their services.

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Buy Forex Online India Pvt. Limited

Buy Forex Online India Pvt Limited is one of a leading online Foreign Exchange services company in India. They are the first online forex services company offering buying of foreign currencies at the ease of your home or office and get it delivered at your door step. For more details contact them today or call them on +91 7848034204 to avail their services.

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Looking for the most reliable way to buy Forex in India? Visit BuyForexOnline. BuyForexOnline provides customers with the easiest way to access the best Forex services at unbelievable prices. With their best forex services and amazing offers to benefit the customers, they have become one of the most sought after Forex buying companies in India. Recently, the company has started TRAVEL100 scheme on their website that offers customers full service charge waiver on Forex services. Since, the.

Its the time of the year when students start planning for higher education abroad. One of the main concerns of students heading abroad is, “How to get Forex for education at the best rates?” While there are many options available in the market today, it is very important for the students to make sure they approach an authorized and reputed dealer like Buy Forex Online India Pvt Limited. Buy Forex Online India Pvt Limited is a reputed online Forex buying platform that not just.

Buying forex online is one of the best ways of purchasing forex for your overseas travel, or forex for education. It gives you the convenience of buying forex easily from the comforts of your home and helps you make an informed decision by transparent pricing and special features such as ‘live rates. BuyForexOnline, which is one of the leading websites for amazing forex services, such as-forex for students, forex for travel, prepaid forex cards etc, makes buying forex online even.

Buyforexonline has announced its partnership with Tata Capital Forex early this month. This move is aimed at providing a more seamless and superlative Forex service experience for Forex customers - both students and leisure travellers. Customers can now order their Forex card in 15 different currencies Online, and have it delivered to them at around 15 locations pan-India which.

Prepaid forex cards have revolutionized the way we spend money abroad. Today, an increasing number of international travelers are using prepaid forex cards to carry money abroad, but there are still a good number of people who dont use them due to high ATM withdrawal fees. Though ATM fees vary from country to country, if you use your travel card frequently, you end up spending $2 USD per withdrawal. This can add up to a big amount if you use your card a lot. If thats the reason why.



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2014online broker review

2014online broker review2014 Online Broker Review

Published by Blain Reinkensmeyer on February 18th, 2014.

Fellow Investors,

2013 was one bulls will remember for quite some time and bears are still trying to forget. The S&P 500 returned 29.6% and closed at fresh all-time highs. No matter how your portfolio was invested, as long as it was long and not sitting in cash, you had a very good year. Whether or not this excessive optimism will falter in 2014 as the stimulus high slowly fades away is to be seen, but for now, despite a shaky January, the market continues to maintain its long-term uptrend.

The brokerage industry also felt the positive market. DARTs were up across the board, as retail investors returned in droves and billions in fresh assets poured into the market. The positive atmosphere yielded big appreciation for the stocks of the four publicly traded brokers: ETRADE (ETFC) led the way as its stock was up 119% for the year, TD Ameritrade (AMTD) saw its stock price improve 82%, Charles Schwab moved up 81%, and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) finished 2013 with its stock up 78%.

Looking at the industry on the whole, investors should feel good, as we saw improvements across the board. Customer service is clearly a focal point for most brokers — service teams are well trained and understand their clients’ needs. We saw numerous brokers enhance their platforms and tools, specifically focusing on options trading. Lastly, advancements in mobile are clear to see as what were once highlight features — for example, watch list to web syncing — are now standard among the majority.

Seeing the industry evolve and make positive changes is what we clamor for. Our yearly review is designed to serve two goals: push the industry forward, and help all of us as investors find the right broker for our needs.

Less the brokers themselves, we are the toughest critics. Our grading criteria, which includes several hundred variables, sorts through the fluff to identify the true leaders. With a “for traders, by traders” mentality, the StockBrokers yearly review has a reputation for being the toughest review in the industry, and we don’t plan on it changing anytime soon.

With more than 100,000 reads the past two years, I am proud of what we have accomplished. This year, we had one new broker join, Merrill Edge, and one broker drop out, Cobra Trading, resulting in once again 17 total brokers participating. Instead of the review being contained all on one page, our updated research and results are spread throughout the site. Links to all of our latest content can be found in the sections below, including our in-depth individual reviews, as well as our “Best in Class” analysis.

Here’s to us as investors and our success in 2014,

Blain Reinkensmeyer

Co-Founder CEO

StockBrokers

2014 Individual Broker Reviews



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Online dating review

Online dating reviewOnline Dating Review

Whether or not you believe in fate, it can certainly feel like fate when you meet the love of your life. If you're eager to find love, you may want to give fate a helping hand by joining an online dating website. Even if you don't meet the love of your life, online dating can lead to fun interactions with exciting people.

Online Dating Sites: What to Look For

Good online dating services should have a host of tools to help you meet a large number of potential dates, and to go on dates with real potential. A dating site should act as a kind of screening tool, helping you find people you may like, and helping to protect you from anyone dangerous. Here are some of the things we looked for specifically in online dating services:



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Stock market trading strategy

Stock market trading strategyStock Market Trading Strategy

STRATEGY #5: Gap Up or Gainer - Afternoon BreakOut

Sometimes a stock market trading strategy is like a worn out pair of jeans. It's old, comfortable, familiar and been used many times. but it still feels right to put on. Some things in trading are timeless and this is one of them.

This one's pretty darn simple. Are you ready for this? Scan your gap up and gainer list just like in the previous strategies, except this time do it in the late morning and early afternoon. What are you looking for?

Simple patterns -- consolidating and basing type patterns. You want to see a strong rise in price through the morning session and then price should settle down into a less volatile breathing period during late morning or early afternoon. This is just a plain vanilla breakout strategy . Pretty much anything goes. laterals, triangles, tight consolidation, any price pattern that reduces volatility is a friend here.

Stocks that make a strong morning performance on higher than average volume will frequently make a slightly higher high, then just settle back very slowly and take a breather. They can appear to be going nowhere and this will be what you're looking for. If the stock starts inching it way up to resistance, put a buy stop order in and get ready for a possible breakout.

Some stocks will never make it to the starting line, but so what, there's plenty of other stocks to try. Others will explode upward making profits very quickly.

If you've been around trading for awhile, then this is a stock market trading strategy you must have seen before and you might think it's been beaten to death. It doesn't matter. Just like our friend the boring Lateral, it will keep showing it's face day after day.

Don't fool yourself into thinking that you need to discover some complicated mathematical formula to use in some high tech indicator. A stock market trading strategy or concept need not be complex to be useful in this game.

Take a look at the chart of CTL below. CTL moves very nicely from 10:00am until noon, simmers down into a nice base, almost a triangle and then BAM, breakout!

Next we have CAM.

CAM was gracious enough to give everyone a second chance at an afternoon breakout, if you missed the first one!

And not only that, the next day CAM gives those that are alert another ride up!



Online Stock market trading strategy

Alman forex robotu

Alman forex robotuEN GUNCEL ALMAN FOREX ROBOTU YORUMLARI | FOREX SINYALLERI

En gucel forex robotu yorumlar?n? sizin icin derledim. En altta lutfen okuyun. Ve merak etmeyin, bu forex yaz?l?m? gercekten ise yar?yor. Paran?z? asla cope atmayacaks?n?z. Rahat olun robota guvenin neler yapabildigine inanamayacaks?n?z.

Alman Forex Robotu ile ilgili defalarca yaz? yazd?m. Kaybetme korkusu olmadan para kazand?ran otomatik para kazanma yaz?l?m?. Hic forex bilmeseniz bile. Pc'nize 2 dakikada kuruyorsunuz ve tum isi Robot kendisi hallediyor. Hafta ici 5 gun yat?r?m yapabiliyorsunuz. Bu sistem daha ay baz?nda kaybetmedi. Ve dikkat edin internette olumsuz tek bir yorum bile yok. Kald? ki binlerce sat?ld?. Bu otomatik yaz?l?m piyasay? yak?ndan takip ediyor ve otomatik al sat emirleri veriyor. Su an bu muthis yaz?l?m 347 tl ancak sirket yetkililerinden ald?g?m maillerde fiyat art?r?m?na gideceklerini biliyorum.



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Forex what is it and how does it work

Forex what is it and how does it workFOREX. What Is It And How Does It Work?

Trade Forex and make money

Trade Forex and make money

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970's, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.

FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.

Marginal Trading

Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term lot refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency's future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.

A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country's economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank's interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.

Trade Forex and make money

FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.



Online Forex what is it and how does it work

Real time forex quotes

Real time forex quotesReal Time Forex Quotes

11 October, 2010 GMT

By: Charley Warady

Probably more than any market, including the stock market, the commodities market, and even your supermarket. the Forex market and its traders depend heavily on real time Forex quotes.

The majority of traders involved in the Forex market are day traders and many of those are scalpers. Can you imagine the havoc that would be caused if they were to receive anything except up to the minute information?

A Forex trader, any Forex trader, needs any tool or method to give him an edge when it comes to trading. Whether its a proper set of trading signals, or technical analysis, or a heads up concerning a report coming out that will affect a fundamental approach. To only have access to quotes that are delayed is like running a marathon on a broken leg. It can be done; but its probably going to take you a lot longer.

Real time Forex quotes are so prevalent these days amongst brokers that they are often taken for granted. They shouldnt be. Particularly for the experienced trader who assumes his broker is supplying up to the minute information, he should check to make sure this is a fact and not just an assumption on his part.

Youre not even talking about a profit turned into a loss here (although in the case of a scalper, that may certainly be the case), but the amount of profit or the amount of loss even if it means only a couple pips at a time will add up quickly.

Certainly when choosing a broker, one of the first things you should do is make sure they offer real time Forex quotes. Compare the quotes to other brokers that may offer them on their site. Compare them to real time charting services and quote services not connected to a particular broker.

Your entire Forex strategy may depend on the accuracy of this information and the timeliness therein. Not only that, it is beneficial to check on this occasionally during your time with your Forex broker. The market is the most dynamic in the world and dependent on technology to sustain itself. It is up to the trader to make sure he is standing on equal ground with everyone else.

There are so many factors in successfully trading the Forex market. Whether it is technical expertise or the ability to react as a scalper. The discipline involved simply to stay in the game is always admirable.

The typical Forex trader is no stranger to online tools to help him with his trading. He gets involved with forums, interest groups, and even social media. He is aware of the importance of having real time Forex quotes.

When he puts in his buy order, or his sell order, or his stop loss order, he needs to know its based on real time statistics. More important than any of this, however, is when the trader uses a market order. What he sees on his screen better resemble what he receives as his filled order. If not. its time to move to real time.

Looking for a brokerage thats ideal for beginner traders? Read our Plus500 review to see if this experience broker is right for you, or whether the social trading experience at eToro can help you get started. Or, if you need a platform suitable for advanced traders, check out our FXCM review to get the scoop on this top-rated Forex broker.

Real Time Forex Quotes

These quotes are available online for free if only you knew the correct site to log onto and get what you want. if not, you can download relevant software into your computer that will help you in tracking the real time quotes that. may determine, your staying power in the forex market. Since the foreign exchange market is an electronic market, perhaps monitoring the financial trends yourself would be the better option as compared to getting predictions from the real time quotes. The real time forex quotes inform you of the current price of a certain currency and at the same time, they inform you also of the methods that you can use in that given time to get the best out of the market. The price is the determining factor in the trade with currency. Therefore, when you are informed of the price, you are just informed about everything else that is a factor in the money market. You should play smart by remembering that price is bound to change at any given moment with little or no notice at all. Real time quotes give you the price quotes in several money markets, of the two or more currencies that you are trying to buy or sell. When you are fore armed with this knowledge, you can know what currency to discard and what currency to keep.



Online Real time forex quotes

Hr training-development

Hr training-development• Hr Training Development

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HR Training Development Group | EuroAsian Consulting Network

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No dealing desk forex with intertrader direct

No dealing desk forex with intertrader directNo Dealing Desk Forex with InterTrader Direct

Choose InterTrader Direct for No Dealing Desk forex trading, plus a range of indices and commodities. Now you can trade directly into the forex interbank market with all the advantages of spread betting.

Trade direct into the interbank market

InterTrader Direct offers the first true ‘pound-per-point’ spread betting service with No Dealing Desk. This means you can trade 46 major and minor forex pairs at the underlying interbank market spread. Your orders are placed anonymously into the market via automated ECN/STP processing.



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How to invest in japanese stock market

How to invest in japanese stock marketHow to invest in japanese stock market

The Japanese stock market is part of a very developed economy. This Asian stock market has its own specific characteristics. Tokyos stock market could be an ideal way to invest in some specific stocks that are leaders in their industry. Japanese companies are well known as leaders in different sectors like pharmacy.

Japans stock market trading hours are very different from US trading hours or European trading hours. The time zone for the Japanese stock market is well shifted. Tokyo is located in UTC/GMT +9 hours time zone. This means that difference between Tokyo and London is -8 hours (now) and the difference between Tokyo and New York is -13 hours.

So as you can see it could be hard to trade and invest directly during the trading hours of the local Japan equity market and monitor real-time international quotes of Tokyos equity market. It can be done but you have to make a little shift of your day and night in you local time zone.

I regularly publish some of my ETF picks in free newsletter. Subscribe to my free stock trading newsletter and use them for your trading.

Three international ETF securities for japan stock market

It is possible to use exchange traded funds to access Japanese stocks. Investor located in the USA or Europe could use several different international exchange traded funds that are listed on US exchanges or European exchanges in London or Frankfurt.

These exchange traded funds track several different indexes of Japans stock market. The most typical example is EWJ the MSCI Japan Index Fund issued by Ishares and traded in the USA. This fund holds several major Japanese companies in its portfolio, like Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Financial and Honda motor to name few of them.

Another opportunity is available by SCJ MSCI Japan Small Cap Index Fund . This index ETF targets small cap companies from the Japanese market.

I personally also have third Japanese ETF in my list of exchange traded funds. It is ITF SP/TOPIX 150 Index Fund that tracks stocks listed in the Tokyo index TOPIX.

These international ETFs represent good ways to invest in the Japanese stock market for USD based investors. These funds are priced in USD so you dont need to make a currency hedge for international investing.

Good online trading broker offers direct access to japan stock market

There are already good stock market brokers that offer access to international equity markets from single broker software. Stock traders or investors could easily place orders into such broker software that would be executed on some International exchange.

So it is also possible to place orders and buy and sell stocks also on Japanese equity market. Good online trading brokers like Interactive Brokers or SaxoBank allow you to select a ticker for any Japanese index or Japanese market symbol.

Example of an offer from Interactive Brokers:

Example of an offer from SaxoBank:

It is important to know that direct investment into Japanese stocks on Japans stock exchanges is done in local currency the Japanese yen. So all these trades should be hedged into your local currency, whatever it is USD, EUR, CHF, CAD.

Join my trading club and have the trading and investment opportunities every week. Save time and make more winning trades.



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Fx double down trading strategy free video presentation-22days,111%roi,1trading strategy

Fx double down trading strategy free video presentation-22days,111%roi,1trading strategyFX Double Down Trading Strategy FREE Video Presentation-22 Days, 111% ROI, 1 Trading Strategy

Watch this FX Double Down Strategy FREE video just now. Download this 117 page Forex Scalping-Tiny Trades For Terrific Profits eBook FREE. Son of world-renowned trader, author, mentor and educator Jared Martinez, Josh Martinez is well-known in his own right as the creator of the 3:10 London Breakout Strategy. Using just a single strategy called Double Down, Josh achieved a 111% ROI in 22 days and now through this exclusive release he will show you in a 3 minute video demonstration exactly how he did it at no cost to you.

In approximately 3 minutes, a trader of any skill level can add the Double Down Strategy to their trading repertoire. True wealth seekers discover opportunities outside of what the masses do. When an opportunity presents itself to make powerful profits from proven techniques then it should not matter if its in stocks, real estate, FX or widgets learn from experienced professionals and you can achieve anything you set your mind to. That learning starts now. Make huge profit using just a single strategy called Double Down.

I gotta say Im impressed with Josh Martinez. As the son of world-renowned trader and educator Jared Martinez, Josh has been brought up in the trading world. He knows his stuff. His Double Down strategy is killer. You can literally double your money very quickly using this trading approach. And now, in a 3 minute video demonstration, Josh is showing you exactly how he did it — at no cost to you.

• See the strategy in action on the live market

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Heres what I like — after watching this 3 minute video, you can easily add the Double Down Strategy to your trading repertoire. This could be your LAST CHANCE to get an exclusive behind-the-scene look at just how this strategy works. It could change your trading future FOREVER. Its well worth the watch!

The other day we sent you an exclusive opportunity to watch the NEW Double Down Trading Strategy in action. We just wanted to remind you that this exclusive opportunity will be ending soon. If you did not take advantage of this exclusive offer yet, youre about to miss your chance to see Josh (also known as FX Pathfinder) DOUBLE his live trading account in just 22 days.

Watch FX pathfinder dominate the market using the double down trading strategy using his live account now. This is your LAST CHANCE to get an exclusive behind-the-scene look at just how this strategy works and how YOU could use it to change your trading future FOREVER. Youve only got a few hours left before they remove this offer for good. Its well worth the watch…The clock is ticking LITERALLY. The countdown has been going and there are only a few hours left before this strategy is gone FOREVER. WATCH IT NOW!

If youre looking for one of the best new Forex trading strategies, then I have very exciting news for you today. Josh Martinez, also known as FX Pathfinder, recently released this video which shows him using this new strategy and doubling his LIVE account in just 22 days. Get this trading strategy now In fact, this strategy is so consistent, so methodical, and so precise that it produced $7,000 in less than a month. Its called the Double Down, and when you watch this complimentary video today, youll see:

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This trading strategy could change YOUR trading future drastically. Heres your chance to get one of the first looks at the strategy that could change the trading game forever. Watch FX pathfinder dominate the market using the double down trading strategy using his live account now…Now is the time to act and get involved in the Forex! Dont let this opportunity pass you by. Watch the Double Down Debut video now. Enjoy the video! I know I did.

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Betfair strategies

Betfair strategiesBetfair Strategies

Winning Betfair Strategies Systems For Backing Laying For Football Horse Racing

Betfair and Betfair Touch Trading Tips (First, we look at UK Horse racing. Scroll down further for football/soccer strategies). Dont forget that Betfair offers a huge range of markets including American Football, Australian Rules, Baseball, Basketball, Bowls, Boxing, Chess, Cricket, Cycling, Darts, Financials, Gaelic Games, Golf, Greyhound Racing, Handball, Horse Racing, Ice Hockey, MMA, Motor Sport, Poker, Politics, Pool, Rugby League, Rugby Union, Snooker, Tennis and Volleyball.

UK horse racing gets lots of liquidity and is good for swing trading. Particularly within an hour of the race starting. This is good because any outstanding lay or back bets, needed to balance a trade, will always be matched. However, most successful Betfair traders will just be acting on good betting tips from subscription services like LUCKY 7 NAPS or from professional betfair trading daily services like the sports trader .

NEW THIS MONTH.

If you want to earn money from trading on Betfair and get to a stage where you are your own boss then we recommend you check out Tony Hargraves website, thesportstrader. You can also check out our full sports trader review here. You do not require any previous knowledge of horse racing, football, cricket, tennis (however every little bit helps) and you can start with a bankroll as low as ?25. Be in control of your own destiny and soon you will forget what an alarm clock actually sounds like. Tony has been one of the best Betfair traders since 2008. You can check out his reasonably priced trading eBooks, live courses as well as genuine testimonials on his website here . We have also teamed up with the sports trader to offer a limited time 25% discount coupon code on all his training materials - Click here for more details .

If you would rather just look for profitable spots, here is a Betfair trading strategy that can be used to identify horses who odds are expect to shorten. Horses like this are sometimes called steamers (where the odds shorten significantly). It is not necessary to know anything about horse racing to following a strategy like this.

This strategy identifies horses that are getting interest from tipsters and who’s odds are significantly different to those offered by the bookmakers. The expectation is that the odds on Betfair will get closer to the average odds offered by traditional bookmakers. The odds on Betfair will always be larger than those offered with the bookmakers because Betfair odds do not have an ‘in built’ profit margin like bookmaker odds. This strategy aims to find selections where the difference between the odds is too large.

Online-betting-guide. co. uk (OLBG) is a tipster website which has some useful features. The free horse racing tips section includes a summary of the most tipped horses. Racing during the day can be investigated, in which case, it is advisable to look early in the morning. Tips for most up coming major horse racing events can be accessed in the ante-post section. This enables a swing trade to be opened well in advance of the race starting if necessary.

The OLGB technology shows which horses have received most tips and what the bookmaker’s odds are for that selection. The OLGB rating uses OLBG Tips percentages to calculate win probabilities and compares these with bookie odds, which gives an indication if there is value in the odds. If there is value in the odds they are most likely to shorten.

Other tipsters can be used to verify selections. Tips from websites like OLBG might not be enough because the tipster might not have a large enough following to influence the price. Racing Post follows newspaper tipsters and report how successful they’ve been. The thing about newspaper tipsters is that they get a good readership. For instance, Steve Simpson of the Blackpool Gazette, has been the most profitable from the Local press. Marlborough, from the daily telegraph has also been successful recently.

In any case, once a horse has been selected a back bet is placed on the selection as early as possible (which is determined by the liquidity in the market and the size of the stake). Wait for the odds to shorten on the day of the race. Next green up for a guaranteed profit.

Another method is to compare the betting forecast on Racing post, with the average bookmaker odds using Oddschecker, and finally the odds available on Betfair. Racing Post has a section called tomorrows cards which lists all the races for the following day. Underneath is the betting forecast which uses the Racing Post database and rantings figures to make an odds prediction. If the odds on Betfair are a lot higher than those of bookmakers and the Racing Post forecast it could be a good selection. Again a back bet is placed with a lay bet to follow after the odds have shortened.

What if the odds move in the wrong direction

No selection system is infallible. Sometimes the odds won’t move as expected. The trader should set a stop loss. The trade would be closed by placing the corresponding back or lay bet, which, would result in a small loss. It’s up to the trader to decide how far they will let the odds move in the wrong direction before the trade is closed.

Furthermore it is very important that trades are not closed before the horse race starts. After the race starts odds can move wildly and quickly, which can result in sudden loses. Completing trades before the race starts avoids large price movements and prevents any trades from riding as plain bets. Which of course is not trading it’s just gambling.

In summary this Betfair trading strategy for UK horse racing is one of many available. It works by finding horses who’s odds on Betfair offer value compared with the average of traditional bookmakers. The expectation is that the odds will shorten to reflect that of the market average making an opportunity to profit by trading the odds.

NEW FOR JANUARY 2015. Read our full Sports Trader review here. We have also teamed up with the sports trader to offer a 25% discount coupon code on all his training materials. Learn Betfair trading from the best in the business!

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1 Loser Strategy (Football)

Using this strategy you can Lay several scores in the Correct Score market, or several players in the First Goal Scorer market, and win on every Lay except your FIRST Lay.

If you were Laying the Correct Score Market :-

The only way these Lays can lose is if you happen to pick the winning score line with your FIRST Lay.

Lay as many score lines as you like.

The more you Lay, the bigger your profit.

Additionally, as with all other Laying strategies that involve more than one Lay, every Lay you make reduces your liabilities.

In this case your only liability will be on your First Lay.

As you make more Lays, that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other Lay increases.

If the game ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever.

You clean up, winning the total ??? of all your Lays.

Remember, your only losing Lay will be on the FIRST score line that you Lay.

You will win on all the others.

It is exactly the same if you Lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market.

You could also use this spreadsheet to Lay a number of horses in a horse race, golfers in a golf tournament, darts players in a darts competition etc.

1 Loser Strategy, using the Correct Score Market as an example.

In a horse race, Bookies may Lay a few runners against the field, but another strategy is to Lay several runners but make only one targeted runner a loser.

With this 1 Loser strategy, we are doing the same thing, but in the Correct Score Market of a football game on Betfair.

We are not Laying the whole field, but just a few of the runners (score lines).

Using this 1 Loser strategy, we win on all score lines except one.

If we stake correctly, we can reduce our liabilities on one targeted score line by laying other score lines.

This is not the same as Laying a single score line.

Using this 1 Loser Strategy :-

We have only one score line against us, but with reduced liabilities.

All the others are running for us.

Any score lines that we dont Lay, are skinners for us ALL our Lays are successful, and we clean up.

There are normally 17 score lines including Any Other Score that we can Lay.

We could Lay 4 score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for us.

We Lay our First score line, which could be any one of the 17.

Then we Lay a 2nd score line, a 3rd, and a 4th.

We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish.

These 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Lays reduce our liabilities on our First Lay, just as any normal series of Lays would do, but if we stake correctly :-

If the winner does NOT come from the 4 horses (or in this case we dont hit the winning score) that we have layed, we have 4 successful lays, and we clean up, with no payout.

If the winner comes from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit.

If our First score line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4.

Another example.

The shortest priced score line may be 1-0.

You may choose to make that your first Lay, and Lay all other scores up to 2-2.

Providing the game does not end with a score of 1-0, you will make a profit on every other Lay.

If the game ends with a score of 0-0, or any score up to 2-2 except 1-0, you are a winner.

If the game ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever.

You clean up, winning the total ??? of all your Lays.

You will only lose if the game ends 1-0, but your 1-0 liabilities will have been reduced by your Lays on the other scores up to 2-2.

You may choose some other score for your First Lay such as 3-3, and Lay some other scores, such as 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2.

If the game does not end 3-3, but ends with another score that you have Layed 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, you make a profit on your Lays.

If the game ends in a score that you have not Layed, you clean up, winning the total ??? of all your Lays.

Your only payout would be on 3-3, but your 3-3 liabilities will have been reduced by your Lays on 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2.

All you need to do to achieve this, is stake correctly.

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2 Losers Strategy.

This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose.

Once again, we do not Lay the whole field, but a few score lines..

The procedure is exactly the same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose.

Liabilities on score lines 1 and 2 will be reduced by the additional Lays on score lines 3 upwards.

This strategy of targeting 2 score lines, has 2 advantages, but one additional drawback :-

A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2.

A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1.

This strategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short odds.

The downside is that we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1.

If the winner does NOT come from the score lines that we have Layed, all our Lays are successful and we clean up, with no payout.

If the winner comes from score lines 4, 5, 6, etc. we still make a profit.

If one of the first 2 score lines wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on the other score lines, particularly score line 1 or score line 2.

This is not the same as just Laying 2 score lines.

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Online Betfair strategies

What is online trading academy

What is online trading academyWhat Is Online Trading Academy?

The decision to start day trading is a serious one, and it can quickly become overwhelming. Online Trading Academy specializes in educating and training individuals about stocks. forex. futures and options as well as investment strategies based on the student’s trading style. The website offer a variety of free and paid courses in addition to its Extended Learning Track, or XLT, offerings. Online Trading Academy was established in 1997 as one of the largest trading floors in the U. S. providing managers and high-performing traders with daily coaching sessions on trading with higher consistency and profitability. In 2001, the organization switched its focus to a purely education model, building a community of over 200,000 investors. (For more, see: An introduction to Day Trading .)

The reasons for choosing Online Trading Academy as an educational resource certainly add up. For almost two decades, the organization has equipped a growing community of traders and investors with the skills necessary for making informed investment decisions. From live online courses to learning the popular TradeStation platform, there is no shortage of class offerings. Students have the option of participating on-location at any of the 35 Financial Education Centers worldwide or taking online courses at home. Online Trading Academy also allows interested individuals to sample the program via free courses prior to deciding to commit to its fee-based courses. Additionally, the organization boasts an extensive list of dedicated instructors.

As robust as the program may be, it’s not without its potential downsides. Courses cost thousands and possibly tens of thousands of dollars, which may be the largest deterrent for potential students with financial constraints. Others may be unwilling to spend that much money on an education that cannot guarantee a return significant enough to offset the initial cost. Online Trading Academy’s disclosure even states that trading accounts should be considered speculative in nature, meaning one cannot be guaranteed protection against a financial loss.

How it Compares to Competitors

Online Trading Academy has an ongoing support system for exclusive students that allow for better feedback and interaction between instructors and students. Many of Online Trading Academy’s competitors such as Trading Advantage and Open Trader seem to have very similar services, but none list their prices. Visitors have to to enter in their contact information to receive additional information. One can be certain that these offerings will be priced comparably to Online Trading Academy's offering. A request for personal information in order to find out how much the courses cost may strike a prospective student as questionable, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the program isn’t on the up and up. (Related: Day Trading Schools .)

Alternatives

There are many choices out there when it comes to investing and trading education. One option is to check with brokerage houses like Fidelity, Charles Schwab (SCHW ), TD Ameritrade (AMTD ) and E-Trade (ETFC ). Not only do these companies have a considerable number of online tutorials for their clients, they also have periodic on-site seminars in their branches. Local investment clubs are an affordable, easy way to build a trading knowledge base through conversations with those who are already doing what you seek to learn. There are a variety of websites out there that offer free tutorials as well as more in-depth videos for a small price. Clearly, there is no shortage of options when it comes to finding educational trading and investing resources.

The Bottom Line

Online Trading Academy is a reputable organization that has been in the business of educating people about investing and trading for two decades. Its on-location and online offerings are in-depth, and the organization gives students the flexibility to maximize learning possibilities in whatever environment suits them best. However, Online Trading Academy’s steep price tag and the presence of substitutes can make the decision to sign-up much more difficult. Fortunately, there are numerous more cost-effective alternatives out there for one to consider. Traders seeking a comprehensive education program should be prepared to take the time to research and compare all options for committing to any of them.



Online What is online trading academy

Learn forex trading to earn easy money

Learn forex trading to earn easy moneyLearn Forex Trading to Earn Easy Money

By Beaulah Dicocco

On July 27, 2009

Forex trading is a popular instrument for people seeking high returns with moderate levels of risks. It diversifies portfolios, does not depend on the minor aspects such as corporate decisions (as is the case with equities) and is a fairly predictable market in the long run. What is more, with managed forex accounts, investors find it even more convenient to make money as it does not require constant monitoring and too much involvement.

Modern financial institutions also provide various tools on online trading, such as auto trading platforms, automated trading systems and signal providers which make it easier for people seeking to earn a quick buck through forex trading.

Before being lured by false promises, it is important to understand that forex trading is an investment and like all other investments, it too involves a certain amount of risk. The returns are, as always, proportional with the risk level. Since the forex market behaves in patterns which are moderately predictable, people who study and analyse the market carefully can predict its movements.

Based on these predictions (which are of course influenced by personal risk appetite and judgements), one can buy forex at low rates and sell it at higher rates to earn a profit. Interestingly, short selling is allowed in the forex market, which means that money can also be made in a falling market situation. In layman’s terms, this means that one can sell at a higher rate first and square off (buy the sold quantity) later at a lower price to make a profit!

Before going into how one can learn to trade forex, it is important to understand the basics of this market. The price of a country’s currency depends on its demand. Thus the price or value is more when there is more demand for its currency. The stronger a country’s economy, the more goods and services produced by it, the more ‘money’ required to pay for these. This is called transaction demand for money in economics.

Thus if the US economy is growing, the transaction demand for the US dollar will go up.

There is another component to the demand for money. This is the speculative demand. Simply spoken, this means that when speculators expect a particular currency to become sought after in future, in anticipation of raised prices in the future, they will try to buy and hoard this currency. This will increase the speculative demand component of the demand for the currency.

In forex, money unit is always measured as a ratio of another currency. Complex parameters in the domestic countries (of the currencies) give the exchange ratios of the currencies. When the demand for a particular currency rises due to different factors, its ratio improves and vice versa. Based on this rise and fall in exchange ratios, investors purchase and sell currencies to earn money.

Both as an investment and as a part time occupation, forex money trading is a good option. Apart from investors, people who are looking for work at home opportunities also find the money market an interesting and lucrative market.

For forex traders, it is important to keep abreast of forex news and international developments which affect forex values. For informed observers, forex trading is a very popular means for earning easy money.

Author's Bio:

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Online Learn forex trading to earn easy money

Relative value trading using pair trades

Relative value trading using pair tradesRelative Value Trading Using Pair Trades

By David Becker • 0 Comments

Pair trading is a relative value trading strategy where an investor seeks to profit from the relative change in one stock or asset relative to another stock. Pair trading is considered market-neutral as the direction of the ratio between two stocks is not predicated on the direction of the broader market indices.

Pair trading strategies are often developed by taking simultaneous long and short positions in different stocks to generate robust returns by finding relative value. Pair strategies generally focus on stocks, but investors can use other assets such as corporate bonds or government yields to find robust pairs. There are many methods that can be used to find stock pairs with a focus on companies which are in similar businesses and have highly correlated returns.

Developing a Pair Strategy

As mentioned earlier pair trading, is a market neutral strategy in which value exists because one stock price is cheap or rich relative to another stock price in a similar business. Pair trading avoids direct exposure to the broader market indices (the beta) and instead gives a ratio exposure. The relative value nature of pair trading eliminates the volatility associated with directional signal stock trading.

Two distinct styles of pair trading include mean reversion strategies and trending strategies. Each employs a number of techniques to generate a trading idea. Mean reversion strategies examine stocks with relatively high correlation coefficients and find historical levels when examining the ratio of one stock to another. Trend strategies generally focus on the fundamentals of two stocks and are more discretionary in natural.

Pair strategies seek to take advantage of highly correlated stocks which might experience a divergence in short term correlation. The correlation defines in logarithmic terms the relative relationship between variables. Two stocks in which the returns move in perfect tandem will likely have a correlation coefficient of 1 or in percent terms 100%. Two stocks that move in the opposite direction will have a correlation of -1. Investors can back test a time series to determine if the relative of two stocks will revert to the mean.

Bollinger band strategies on ratios are goods strategies to use to find a move from a moving average on a ratio that show robust historical results.

Risk management should be incorporated to insure a strong trading strategy. Investors should understand that a ratio between two stocks can continue to widen beyond historic means and should target a notional value stop loss based on the change in the stock ratio.

An investor should find two stocks that have similar business models. This could include stocks that are in the wholesale consumer business sector that have similar businesses such as Wall-mart and Costco. These two companies participate in a commoditized business which requires strong execution. There will be times especially over the medium term in which one stock outperforms, and investors can look for a rebound in the spread between the returns of the stock pair.

Executing Pair Trades

Investors can execute pair trades in using a number of financial products. The most common form is to simultaneously purchase a specific notional value of one stock, and short selling the same notions value in another stocks. To execute this type of trade an investor would need to have a margin account which will allow them to borrow a stock that in turn can be sold. Margin accounts will often provide leverage on stock purchases but leverage is less available for short sales.

Another type of pair trade is an option strategy in which an investors purchase call option on one stock and put option on another stocks. Investors who use options to pair trade should understand the leverage and risk associated with options.

A third type of strategy that can be employed to initiate risk on pair trades is pair options. This type of products offers pair traders options that speculate purely on the spread between two stocks. The dealers within this sector offer above or below option on a ratio between two stocks. The options can vary from long term monthly transactions on a pair option to short term hourly options on a stock pair. Pair options offer leverage, which can be significant.



Online Relative value trading using pair trades

Trading strategies behavioral finance

Trading strategies behavioral financeBehavioral Finance and Energy Trading - BFET

This workshop provides an introduction to behavioral finance, an exciting area in economics that combines the psychology of risk taking with traditional finance and economics theory of market behavior. Numerous case studies focused on energy and commodity markets are presented to introduce key concepts

The course aims to encourage delegates to raise their level of self-awareness and gain a deeper understanding on how behavioral, psychological and biological aspects condition trading decisions.

We will explore the personality traits of successful traders and the risk taking profiles that are often found in members of different trading groups in energy firms such as asset-based trading, optimization, proprietary trading, marketing operations, portfolio management, risk management and operations.

Prior to the course, delegates have the option to take a survey designed to identify attitudes towards risk and potential psychological biases. Individual results can be kept confidential and discussed in person with each delegate.

What you will learn

How to identify and modify behavioral and cognitive biases

A survey of latest research on behavioral finance applied to trading

Key psychology traits of successful traders

How do the body and brain cooperate to take risks

Strategies to manage risk and anxiety

How to incorporate behavioral aspects to improve trading strategies

What type of personality profiles are more likely to be successful at different energy trading strategies

Lessons from energy and commodity trading debacles

Do you have a question or enquiry regarding this course?

Please contact your local sales team:

The Oxford Princeton Programme is registered with GARP as an Approved Provider of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) credits. The Oxford Princeton Programme has determined that this program qualifies for 16 GARP CPD credit hours. If you are a Certified FRM or ERP, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at garp/cpd

The course teaches a disciplined approach to asset-based oil trading. This is an intermediate course designed for oil traders as well as those interested in learning more about asset-based trading strategies such as trading analysts, schedulers and risk managers. Basic knowledge of physical asset trading strategies such as cargo arbitrage and storage is required.

Crude Oil Traders

Products Traders

Trading Managers

Trading Analysts and Schedulers

Market and Credit risk managers

Trading and risk consultants

Trading psychology

101: Behavioral Finance and Energy Trading (I)

The ‘Financialization’ of Energy Markets

Theories of market behavior: Efficient markets vs. Adaptive Market Hypothesis

Overview of a disciplined Approach to Trading (I): Edge, Process and Time

How do Trading Rooms make money

Hedging vs. Speculation. Drawing the line between them.

Case study: Why Traders Blow Up. Concentrated positions, markets freezing up, lack of risk control

Forensic finance: Lessons from Metallgesselchaft, Enron, Amaranth, Ospraie Capital

102: Behavioral Finance and Energy Trading (II)

A framework for understanding trader psychology

Overview of Behavioral and Cognitive biases

Risk Aversion

Overconfidence

Persuasion and hindsight effects

Information biases

Groupthink

Regret and Fear of Missing Out

Case study: Billionaires and insider trading. Why risk it all?

Case study: Identifying and correcting biases

103: The Psychology of Trading

What makes a good trader? Lessons from interviews with successful traders

Cardinal sins of trading

Regret and fear of missing out

Dealing with stress and anxiety

Perfectionism and ego

104: Energy Trading Strategies and Trader Profiles

Risk taking attitudes and energy trading operations

Supply balancing

Energy marketing

Asset-based trading

Portfolio optimization

Proprietary trading

105: Review and Discussion of Trading psychology survey:

Benchmark analysis and review of main findings

Discussion

201: A disciplined Approach to Trading:

Edge

Do you know your edge?

How much edge do you need to succeed in trading?

Process

The importance of discipline

Why good strategies will sometimes perform poorly

Time

Is trading a loser’s game?

Strategies for managing downside risk

202: Behavioral Finance and the Biology of Risk Taking

Biology of risk taking

How do the body and brain cooperate to take risks

Gut feelings and decision making

The role of pre-consciousness vs. consciousness

Case study: Should traders be trained as athletes?

Do trader’s Sharpe ratios improve with experience?

Case study: The hour between the dog and wolf

203: Trading Methods and Traders

Trading styles, trading methods and market regimes

Technical Indicators and market psychology

Fundamentals vs. technical

Key traits of successful traders

204: Trading Discipline

Components of a trading plan

How should I prepare to trade?

Entry and exit rules

Why should I enter into a position?

Position sizing, limits and risk levels Liquidation strategies and market liquidity

Behavioral Finance Seminars &

Behavioral Finance Training

Summer 2010;

July 15 16, 2010,

Los Angeles, CA

Capitalizing on Irrational Markets Irrational Managers and Investors!

“I have been struggling throughout the (traditional) financial management curriculum to reconcile the chaotic behavior I saw in the stock market with the theory I was learning, and it just wasn't making any sense to me conceptually -- now I know why !”

Seminar in Behavioral Finance Attendee

SEMINAR I - INVESTMENT

The objective of this seminar is to identify and avoid key psychological errors. Specifically, it offers a clear understanding of (and an appreciation for) the underlying psychological factors and processes that result in nonoptimal decision making by financial managers and investors across different financial markets. Then it discusses the steps that managers and investors can take to mitigate these problems utilizing well developed tools and practices of theory.

· The psychology of decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty

· Neuro-Finance: How decisions are made in the brain

· Behavioral foundations of finance with special focus on perceptions of risk and reward

· Prospect theory; Loss Aversion; Disposition effect; Overconfidence; Heuristics and emotions

· Valuation of assets/securities - value creation, and value destruction in the corporate world

· Price Anomalies; IPO under-pricing; Equity premium; Bubbles

· Investment and trading strategies in behavioral finance

· Mergers and acquisitions - investment lessons learned

· Financial regulation and policy

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?

The target audience for the Investment seminar is portfolio managers, security analysts, bankers, and financial advisors and consultants. A working knowledge of the financial markets and securities is required for enrollment in this seminar.

SEMINAR 2- BEHAVIORAL CORPORATE FINANCE

A study of the key psychological obstacles to value-maximizing behavior and steps that managers can take to mitigate them using the traditional tools of corporate finance. The focus of this seminar is on understanding the underlying factors and processes that result in nonoptimal decision making by financial managers.

· The psychology of decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty

· Neuro-Finance: How decisions are made in the brain

· Behavioral foundations of finance with special focus on perceptions of risk and reward

· Prospect theory; Loss Aversion; Disposition effect; Overconfidence; Heuristics and emotions

· Rational Managers/Irrational Markets and Corporate Decisions

· Rational Markets/Irrational Managers and Corporate Decisions

· Group Decision Making - Behavioral Pitfalls

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?

The target audience for the Corporate Finance seminar is managers, bankers, portfolio managers, security analysts, and corporate consultants. Basic managerial experience along with a working knowledge of the financial markets and securities is required for enrollment in this seminar.

CORE FACULTY GROUP COMPLETE BROCHURE

Tuition: $2,950.00 (US Dollars) per person; the rate includes the seminar book(s) and any other related learning support material.

Special Discounts:

· “Early Bird” Discount . Register by June 11, 2010 and receive a 10% discount.

· Corporate Discount: A 10% discount is available to companies with a minimum registration of five individuals.

· Academic Discount . A 20% discount is available to full-time university faculty. (Qualified doctoral students may email us directly for special discount availability).

HOW TO REGISTER ?

· Space is limited so please register right away to reserve your seat(s).

· As we are currently upgrading our fully secure online Registration System to accept major Credit Cards, please email us you need(s) at staffaobf so that our Program Director gets back to you as soon as we receive your request. We much appreciate your interest in ABFs Seminars.

CONTACT INFORMATION:

· Email (for faster response): staffaobf. or

· Phone . 818-236-2145

· Mailing Address:

Academy of Behavioral Finance Economics

O verreaction is probably the most popularly known effect of human behavior on market prices. All things being equal, in a rational market the fundamentals of a company should determine its market price, and there should be a clear relationship between the two. However, research - as well as a casual glance at CNN's stock-ticker on any given day - shows that this relationship doesn't necessarily happen as expected. Investors regularly overreact, often wildly, so pushing prices up too high or pushing them down too low against their fundamentals. Not only is the market, therefore, not wholly rational in reality, but the effect cannot be attributed to any financial or company-based factor. The most likely reason for the anomaly appears to be the way investors perceive, and react to, earnings surprises or news items, or indeed other investors' actions. This overreaction occurs across the stockmarket and gives rise to several investment strategies.

Contrarian Strategies

The overreaction effect is highly pronounced when comparing 'out of favor' (contrarian stocks) against current 'favorites', or what are also known as value and glamour stocks. 'Out of favor' stocks are not stocks that are bad quality stocks, simply ones that are not attractive to the market, for whatever reason that might be. The interesting thing is, however, that over time the 'out of favor' stocks will, in general, outperform the 'favorites'. Then, when the 'out of favor' stocks become the 'favorites' due to increased buying the effect is reversed and the process is repeated in a cyclical manner, while only minor changes may take place to the stock's fundamentals. 'This occurs,' says David Dremen, who researched the effect with a portfolio of stocks over a ten year period, 'because these stocks will tend to reverse over time as investor expectations change'. Premiums paid for high growth stocks become too expensive while 'out-of-favor' stocks begin to represent greater potential gains. The effect is reminiscent of regression to the mean, a statistical effect where measurements will tend towards their average, and is in fact nothing new. Scientists have known for several hundred years that this kind of effect often occurs when human behavior is involved. What is new is that the effect has been found to occur within a particular domain of stocks.

Whether a stock is an 'out of favor' or 'favored' stock is indicated by their ratios. According to James O'Shaughnessy, whose extensive and well-researched findings were published in What Works on Wall Street . these include: price to book value (P/BV), price to cash flow (P/CF), and price to earnings (P/E). Stocks with the lowest ratios have the most potential to rise, particularly on good news surprises, and are therefore the ones, from this contrarian perspective, that should be sought after, providing they are essentially good stocks.

Momentum Strategies

Contrarian investing would seem to indicate that making money in the stockmarket, over and above the smaller but consistent returns from well-known companies like Microsoft or IBM, requires buying only 'out of favor' or value stocks. However, this is not the case. Indeed, if one were to take this to its logical conclusion no one would buy rising stocks - that were on their way to becoming glamour stocks - and profitable opportunities would be missed. In addition, value stocks take an average of five years to show a worthwhile return. Clearly that is often unacceptable and research bears out, in fact, that momentum pushes many stocks towards new heights regularly, and money can be made on these stocks considerably faster than five years. This doesn't mean that you simply buy any stocks that are rising away from their rational price due to market or behavioral influences. Such an approach would be unsystematic and likely to result in a loss. Although, as Robert Vishny points out, 'You don't necessarily make money on the best stocks in the market but on the stocks everyone thinks are going to be the best'. The rider here, of course, is that you still need to buy stocks that are good or potentially good, even though they may not be the best. Inasmuch as this is true, and you can locate these stocks, there are two momentum strategies that can be implemented.

The first strategy applies to combinations of stocks, and makes use of what is known as the big stock effect . Research on portfolio returns by Andrew Lo and Craig Mackinlay, using a mixture of small and large capitalization companies on the New York Stock Exchange, showed there was a correlation between one weeks return and the next, where around ten-percent of the price change of next weeks return could be predicted from this weeks return. Though the effect only works for portfolios, not for individual stocks, and only in the short-term - that is, daily and weekly returns - there appears to be an observable lead/lag pattern. Which means, big stocks lead little stocks . hence the name. For example, Microsoft goes up dramatically and a few days later there’s a price jump in other computer software manufacturers.

Consequently, buying second line stocks - mid caps and small caps - in a sector believed to be ready for a re-rating sometime in the near future, and then sitting on the investments patiently, can work very well. Though money can be made here purely from momentum effects, my preference is for a portfolio that’s financially sound and less likely to be buffeted around by volatility once it moves. In other words, you are pitting your wits against market sentiment, where investor perception alone has decided these stocks are unfashionable, not against fundamental financial determinants and economic realities.

The second strategy relates to Professor Joseph Lakonishok's intriguing findings which show that high momentum stocks - as measured by their previous six months gains - outperform low momentum stocks by 8 percent to 9 percent during the following year. Hence, buying high momentum stocks can prove to be another useful method for increasing portfolio returns. Again, though, the rider is that you still need to buy stocks that are good or potentially good.

Joseph Lakonishok and his colleagues, finance professors Andre Shleifer and Robert Vishny, don't just come up with interesting academic ideas. They run LSV Asset Management, where they put into practice many of their research discoveries. Generally, they tend to avoid choosing expensive growth stocks that have been given the momentum tag. Instead, they use momentum signals - such as increased sensitivity and volatility to earnings reports or news announcements - to reveal value stocks that are just beginning the upward phase of their recovery. This is not an easy method of portfolio formation, timing and stock choice are crucial, but just like the professors, you'll find it a lot simpler if you have a specialized computer program!

Earnings Surprise Strategies

As far as momentum stocks are concerned, the trick in forming a portfolio is in using accurate measures indicating the stock is starting its rising phase. This can be somewhat harder than it first appears, even with a specialized computer program. Nevertheless, besides looking at the stock's past six months gains, earnings surprises may also be used as the deciding factor for stock selection.

One way of assessing the earnings surprise, suggested by the work of Victor Bernard and Jacob Thomas at Columbia University, is by measuring the surprise against analyst's expectations. If the surprise is not only positive but exceeds analyst's expectations there is a greater likelihood of it being a potential winning candidate for your portfolio. However, it needs to be remembered that it isn't always clear what constitutes a useful positive earnings surprise, especially when it is considered whether the earnings can be maintained or repeated in the future. One swallow doesn't make a summer! Has the company actually changed at all?

Earnings surprises can also be affected negatively in the market by analyst's evaluations and this prompts overreaction in the extreme, which again provides another useful strategy. For example, Intel dropped a hugely excessive 20 percent in three days when it had reported stronger second quarter earnings in 1995. These though came in at 4 percent under analyst's expectations, which was, behaviorally speaking, the impetus for the drop. A change-around was inevitable though as earnings continued to grow. By the spring of 1997 Intel's stock price had almost tripled. Anyone knowledgeable about the company, rather than following the investment crowd, would have made money in this situation.

A similarly striking example concerns Hewlett Packard, and it also serves to emphasize just how extreme investors' reaction to news releases can be. Exploiting this overreaction once again leads to a profitable investment strategy. In September 1992 the company announced that earnings would be below analyst's expectations. By the next day, the price had plummeted 18 percent. This reaction was totally irrational and disproportionate. In real terms for an expected reduction in earnings during the following year of a few million dollars the company's market valuation had plummeted in twenty-four hours by 3.5 billion dollars. Needless to say - if you've followed the thrust of this article so far - it won't come as a shock to know that within three months the price had fully recovered and then some.

With a profound insight into these types of behaviorally based pricing anomalies, born out by his success, and taking the view that a good investor doesn't need to be constantly trading, Warren buffet put it well when he said, 'Only look at the market to see if anyone's done something foolish that day on which you can capitalize'.

Merger Strategies

Another way to make use of overreaction that cause pricing anomalies is to exploit certain types of merger situations. For example, in 1907 an alliance was made between Royal Dutch Petroleum and Shell Transport. These two companies agreed to merge their interests on a 60 to 40 percent basis but remain independently incorporated in Holland and in England. As things stood in the early 1990's, RDP was trading primarily in the US as a constituent of the SP500 and Shell was trading primarily in the UK as a constituent of the FTSE100 (Financial Times Stock Exchange One Hundred index).

Even allowing for the passing of the years, a rational market dictates that the two parts of the company should trade in the same, or similar, ratio of 60 to 40. Yet, recent research has highlighted that this was not the case; stock prices of the corporation did not reflect this ratio. On the contrary, after adjusting for tax, transaction costs, and foreign exchange differences, the actual price ratio between RDP and Shell had deviated from the expected ratio by approximately 35 percent.

Human behavior is again at work to cause the effect, which, apart from dealing in the most potentially profitable part of the company's stock, can also be exploited with an arbitraging approach. The strategy is long-term perhaps but for mutual funds or hedge funds it can be an ideal method of investment.

Apparent High Risk Strategies

An apparent high risk strategy involves dealing in investments that are considered as needing an extremely wide berth as they will lead to heavy losses. The rationale for this strategy is that misinformation, a lack of knowledge about the investment, or market pressures, are influencing investors thinking in some way and leading them to overreact. Successful implementation of the strategy involves overcoming these factors and rationally examining the proposed investment.

Junk bonds are one example here. These are high yield bonds with low ratings by credit agencies, ie issues rated BB or lower. The general perception of these, strengthened by the media coverage surrounding Mike Milken and Drexel Burnham in the late Eighties, is that they are very bad and therefore exceptionally risky. But is that perception justified or is it another case of investors overreacting to the information they hear rather than making their own considered assessment? The fact is these bonds are still around so someone is buying them - in actuality $178.45 billion worth was issued during the five years ending in 1996 (source: Securities Data Co.). Indeed these individuals may well have based their dealing decisions on a variety of reports and studies that demonstrate the high performance of these bonds under the appropriate conditions. Notably that low grade bonds on average yield 50 percent more than high grade ones and that defaults were not substantially larger (the Hickman report looking at data from 1900 - 1945); that the default rate, according to T. R. Atkinson, was actually 0.01 percent from 1945 -1965; and perhaps most convincingly that even when the default rate rose to between 0.015 percent and 0.019 percent by 1981, on a yield premium of 4 percent the risk was highly acceptable. What this meant was that the possibility of a gain was over twenty times more likely than against the potential loss on the default. But in the affected mindset of most investors there wasn't any chance of a sure gain. Faced with the possibility of what they believed were greater gains elsewhere in the market, and as prospect theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Twerski predicts, investors steered clear of this opportunity in favor of what they believed were safer stocks, such as the upcoming glamorous Microsoft and Yahoo! The irony is that many investors would later get burnt on these stocks as their ratings shot through the roof and then see-sawed.

Junk bonds are not for everyone, and certainly not for the novice; they take a high level of knowledge to trade them successfully, they need to be in a diversified portfolio, and they need to be good quality, which many still aren't. But what this strategy demonstrates is that there are many investments that on close scrutiny are safer than first appears. Human behavior, overreaction, overweights the importance of extraneous information such as media hype and expert opinion, stopping investors from giving junk bonds or similar apparent high risk investments careful consideration on their own merit.

A New Wave of Strategies

While overreaction can be exploited with a variety of strategies, as we've seen, so far overreaction is itself difficult to measure as a causal factor in determining price anomalies. Knowing this would give us a highly effective strategy. But, the scientific jury is still out on what exactly constitutes overreaction. We know what effect it has but what actually is it? For example, is it a market based or individual investor based effect, or both? Can we know before we see its effects that the factors that promote it are in evidence? Attempts at using a measure have produced mixed results, as ABN AMRO have found with their behavioral finance fund which has lost about 27 percent since inception. Much work needs to be done before we fully understand how human behavior functions in the context of the stockmarket.

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that a knowledge of human behavior can improve our money-making chances when investing. Behavioral finance specialists, though, have only just begun to scratch the surface of new strategies with a systematic approach to understanding the processes involved and applying the findings. Many more useful strategies are likely to materialize in the next few years. The field itself is only about fifteen years old, a newcomer in the financial arena, and one that is only now beginning to show its worth.



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