Pound sterling forecast

Pound sterling forecastWe tell you what you need to know - Not what we want you to hear!

Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rates Close to 6 Month High

Sterling dollar exchange rates have hit a six month high in the last few days. At the time of writing the pound is down marginally for today, but overall holding relatively firm vs the dollar. A lack of action from the Bank of England today (keeping interest rates on hold), has meant the market has been relatively stable with only a 1 cent movement from high to low.

Looking a head its difficult to predict cable movement (GBPUSD) but it is worth bearing that we are at a six month high if you do need to buy USD! Sometimes its best not to gamble and I think now is the time, sterling is up 4.5% in the last month, and around 11% from the lows of 2010 in May.

In terms of a forecast, I think it really depends how the UK economy fairs. We have a slowdown in the US priced into current rates, so the main issue for sterling is that the budget cuts and public spending reductions are coming in to force in the next few months. These could have a very negative effect on exchange rates as it may lead to:

Reduced consumer confidence

Reduced consumer spending

Higher public sector unemployment

Lower levels of GDP growth, and possibly GDP contraction

At present there isn’t a great deal of focus on these cuts, which is why the pound has held up around a six month high recently. I personally think we could see things head back toward the low 1.50’s, so my overall feeling would be not to hold on too long if you need to buy USD. For more information, fill in the form on the right .

One Response to Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rates Close to 6 Month High

Pound sterling

Pound sterlingPound Sterling / Yen - GBP/JPY

From 2000 to 2007, the GBP/JPY cross fluctuations (Pound sterling/Japanese Yen) had a lot of similarities with the GBP/EUR ones, except about the specific strong volatility (important monthly variations of the exchange values) of the GBP/JPY cross (maybe because of the numerous direct interventions of the Bank of Japan on the Forex).

During this period, the Pound sterling appreciated against the Yen, with as a background a monetary policy with superior interest rates in Great Britain than in Japan, in particular in 2006-2007 when the British economy was strongly growing.

So investors put in place « carry trade » operations which consist in placing oneself « long » on the Pound by buying this currency at the more favorable interest rates with yen invested ‘short”, that is to say sold.

This strategy upended from 2007 in the context of the apparition of the subprime crisis.

The Bank of Englands rates fast decreased (with a quickening of the increase in 2008) and similarities of fluctuations were observed between the GBP/JPY and GBP/USD.

In September 2000 we had the exchange value GBP/JPY = 150, the BBP/JPY cross appreciated for 4 years (despite the strong monthly even weekly volatility) until the value GBP/JPY = 206,88 in March 2004; then these fluctuations remained quite stable until September 2005 (GBP/JPY = 199,30) before the appreciation of the Pound sterling against the Yen became more important and lasted until a higher GBP/JPY = 248 in July 2007.

Concomitant to the reversals observed against the dollar and the euro, a bearish trend began for the Pound, a trend that made the cross reach GBP/JPY = 200 in March 2008 before a collapse was observed after what seemed to be a recovery.

The decrease lasted until February 2009 at GBP/JPY = 132 (-46% in a year and a half).

The Pound sterling won ground on the Yen (GBP/JPY = 160 during the Summer of 2009), but an adjustment happened not only with the Yen but also against the dollar and the Euro (GBP/JPY = 149,34 at the beginning of December 2009).

Read more about Exchange Rates

Gbp-british pound

Gbp-british poundWhy are you interested in the GBP?

British Pound History

The United Kingdom's central bank is the Bank of England. As the fourth most traded currency, the British Pound is the third most held reserve currency in the world. Common names for the British Pound include the Pound Sterling, Sterling, Quid, Cable, and Nicker.

Importance of the British Pound

The British Pound is the oldest currency still in use today, as well as one of the most commonly converted currencies. It is also the highest valued among the major currencies. The Falkland Islands. Gibraltar. and Saint Helena are all pegged at par to the GBP.

Early Currency in Britain

With its origins dating back to the year 760, the Pound Sterling was first introduced as the silver penny, which spread across the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms. In 1158, the design was changed and rather than pure silver the new coins were struck from 92.5% silver and became to be known as the Sterling Pound. Silver pennies were the sole coinage used in England until the shilling was introduced in 1487 and the pound, two years later, in 1489.

British Pound Notes and the Gold Standard

The first paper notes were introduced in 1694, with their legal basis being switched from silver to gold. The Bank of England, one of the first central banks in the world, was established a year later, in 1695. All Sterling notes were handwritten until 1855, when the bank began to print whole notes. In the early 20th century, more countries began to tie their currencies to gold. A gold standard was created, which allowed conversion between different countries' currencies and revolutionized trading and the international economy. Great Britain officially adopted the gold standard in 1816, though it had been using the system since 1670. The strength of the Sterling that came with the gold standard led to a period of major economic growth in Britain until 1914.

The British Pound and the Sterling Area

1976: A sterling crisis arose and the UK turned to the International Monetary Fund for a loan

1988: The GBP started to shadow the Deutsche Mark

1990: The UK joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, though withdrew from it two years later

1997: The control of interest rates became the responsibility of the Bank of England

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Trading gbp

Trading gbpTrading GBP/USD? It can be quite straightforward UBS

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Trading cable can be quite choppy. Perhaps its important to watch out for EUR/GBP as a signal to the next moves.

Here are the views from UBS on future moves of the pound against the dollar.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

BoE Governor Carneys inconsistencies on the currency appear to have cost sterling of late, notes UBS.

In the wake of the August inflation report it seems clear that the threat of persistent headwinds from sterling strength will feature for some time to come. Kristin Forbes is clearly leading the effort to quantify pass-through but the process seems quite dynamic, UBS adds.

We believe the sterling trade is very straight forward: GBPUSD can rise through 1.60 as long as EURGBP is anchored at 0.70 or above , UBS argues.

Given EURGBP is the bulk of the ERI, and the assumptions for the index are at 93, there is minimal scope for GBP to rise against both simultaneously before the BoE relents. We target a February hike, UBS projects.

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Forex market commentary for european session november13,2015

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Sterling Gent Trading Ltd. is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission under the Securities and Investment Business Act, 2010. Licence # SIBA/L/11/0987. Forex (FX) and CFDs (Contracts For Difference) trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The services and products offered by Sterling Gent Trading Ltd. (SGT) are not being offered within the United States of America and are not being offered to U. S. citizens, as defined under U. S. law. Your information will be used to open a demo and/or a live account and inform you about our products and services by email and/or phone. It will remain confidential. SGT does not disclose, share or sell your personal information to any third party. Read our privacy policy.

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FOREX-Dollar bulls hear hawkish hint from Yellen, inflation lifts sterling Reuters

FOREX-Dollar bulls hear hawkish hint from Yellen, inflation lifts sterling Reuters The dollar index was last at 80.444, up about 0.1 percent on the day. China is Australias largest trading partner, making the Aussie dollar a proxy for China plays, but this time the currency got little help from the better-than-expected data AUD falls despite strong China data IGMajor Currency Pairs: Pound Rises To Fresh 5-Year High Investing NZ Dollar Slides Most in Seven Weeks on CPI; Korean Won Drops Business week FX news all 1,308 news articles »

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Daily forex tradeGBP Retreats From 7 Month High Price

Sterling lost ground against a number of its peers on Monday as investors engaged in a spot of profit-taking and a dearth of UK data gave the Pound little opportunity to move upward. The GBP/USD currency pair moved away from.

GBP Slides As Dollar Hits a New 12 Year High vs Yen

The Pound Sterling fell against the Euro to trade in the region of 1.38 as it came under pressure from Monday’s softer-than-expected UK Manufacturing PMI data and optimism that a deal will be reached between Greece and its creditors. Against.

Euro Continues to Slide Despite Recent Bounce

The euro continues to sink against the dollar to 1.226 dollar against 1,228 dollars on Friday night, and even recorded a lowest in more than two years to 1,225 dollar, continuing the subsequent stall the publication of figures from the.

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Despite the strong economic data in the United States, the US dollar came under pressure on Friday afternoon. Is bearish on the greenback, which has allowed the EURUSD to finish the week above $ 1.25, would be explained by the.

Gbp jpy trading strategies

Gbp jpy trading strategiesTrading in the GBP/JPY

Among the lesser known but most interesting currency pairs to trade on the Forex, the GBP/JPY is still little used by many traders. And yet, this pair offers a number of advantages for expert and novice traders.

What is the GBP/JPY?

The GBP/JPY is the Pound Sterling/Yen currency pair which expresses the exchange rate between the British Pound Sterling and the Yen, the official currency of Japan. Its rate therefore expresses the value of a British Pound in Yen.

This currency pair is quoted with 2 decimal places, sometimes 3 with certain brokers. Its rate is said to be ‘floating as it relates to the difference between supply and demand.

The impact of the central banks:

As with the majority of currency pairs, the GBP/JPY is strongly influenced by the central banks of the two countries that intercede regularly on the Forex.

Concerning the British pound, it is of course the Bank of England that is responsible for its regulation whereas for the Yen it is the Bank of Japan that is responsible.

We should note here that the Bank of Japan, like many other similar institutions, tends to intercede quite frequently on the foreign exchange market in order to control the rise of its currency and thereby protect its country from a feeble export competitiveness.

The importance of the GBP/JPY currency pair and its historical variations:

This pair however does not represent one of the highest volumes exchanged on the Forex, in fact it represents only 1% of the foreign exchange market transactions.

But what attracts knowledgeable investors to this currency pair is the strong volatility it offers. In fact, over the last few years we have seen a volatility close to 300 pips which is remarkable for a currency pair. It is for this reason that many investors use the GBP/JPY pair to speculate over the short term. This currency pair is therefore ideal for day traders .

We can explain the size of the movements observed with the GBP/JPY by the effects of the announcements that are generally numerous and throughout the day as the information relative to the pound sterling appears in the morning and part of the day whereas news from the Japanese front appears generally at night due to the time zone difference. There is therefore always an opportunity to be seized.

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