Masters degrees for stock market professionals program info

Masters degrees for stock market professionals program infoMasters Degrees for Stock Market Professionals: Program Info

Essential Information

In a master's degree program in finance, students gain a stronger knowledge in financial accounting, economics, mathematics, and finance theories. Core topics are fleshed out from a financial perspective, encouraging students to analyze, make critical decisions, and learn to operate the software that is utilized by today's financial institutions. At many universities offering this degree, there is a degree concentration in capital markets. This concentration helps students become employed at and excel in capital-seeking corporations that invest in the stock market. To apply to this graduate program, students need a bachelor's degree. Schools may have additional requirements, like a high undergraduate GPA and a resume.

Prerequisites: Bachelor's degree; Resume; Personal statement essay

Program Specializations: Capital markets

Master's Degree in Finance

Students enrolled in an MSF program will be exposed to financial topics such as trading, risk management, and construction of portfolios. Some universities even have trading rooms that bring actual financial market activity to the classrooms. The course topics students may cover in this master's program include the following:


Economic environment of firms

Financial statements

Corporate finance

Fixed income strategies

Equity valuation and trading

Popular Career Options

Graduates of the master's degree program in finance may go on to become employed in such institutions as consulting firms, auditing firms, major banks, stock market companies, financial holdings, securities firms, and industrial companies. Their job description may include front office duty in trading rooms, performing tasks such as trading and selling, analyzing finances, managing portfolios, and evaluating acquisitions.

Employment Outlook and Salary Info

Individuals who hold a master's degree in finance can become financial analysts. These professionals earned median salaries of $78,620 as of 2014, according to the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The number of jobs for financial analysts was projected to increase 16% between 2012 and 2022, reports the BLS. During this time, applicants with master's degrees and relevant professional certifications should have the best prospects of employment.

Online Masters degrees for stock market professionals program info


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References: 1. Trabattoni D, Montorsi P, Fabbiocchi F, Lualdi A, Gatto P, Bartorelli A. A new kaolin-based haemostatic bandage compared with manual compression for bleeding control after percutaneous coronary procedures. Eur Radiol. 2011;21:1687-1691. 2. Politi L, Aprile A, Paganelli C, et al. Randomized clinical trial on short-time compression with kaolin-filled pad: a new strategy to avoid early bleeding and subacute radial artery occlusion after percutaneous coronary intervention. J Interven Cardiol. 2011;24:65-72. 3. Trabattoni D, Gatto P, Bartorelli A. A new kaolin-based hemostatic bandage use after coronary diagnostic and interventional procedures. Int J Cardiol. 2012;156(1):53-54. 4. Lamb KM, Pitcher HT, Cavarocchi NC, Hirose H. Vascular site hemostasis in percutaneous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation therapy. Open Cardiovasc Thorac Surg J. 2012;5:8-10. 5. Pahari M, Moliver R, Lo D, Pinkerton D, Basadonna G. QuikClot ® Interventional™ Hemostatic Bandage (QCI): a novel hemostatic agent for vascular access. Cath Lab Digest. 2010;18(1):28-30. cathlabdigest/articles/QuikClot ® - Interventional™-Hemostatic-Bandage-QCI-A-Novel-Hemostatic-Agent-Vascular-Access. Accessed on August 10, 2014. 6. Tactical Combat Casualty Care Guidelines 2 June 2014. usaisr. amedd. army. mil/pdfs/TCCC_Guidelines_140602.pdf. Accessed March 25, 2015. 7. QuikClot Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS), unimedcorp/MSDS/MSDS_QuikClotCombatGauze. pdf. Updated August 14, 2008. Accessed September 12, 2014. 8. QuikClot lnterventional-A Hemostatic Bandage 510(k) Summary. US Food and Drug Administration. Updated March 11, 2013. accessdata. fda. gov/cdrh_docs/pdf12/k120782.pdf. Accessed September 12, 2014. 9. Ilesanmi OO. Pathological basis of symptoms and crises in sickle cell disorder: implications for counseling and psychotherapy. openi. nlm. nih. gov/detailedresult. php? img=3222266_hr-2010-1-e2-g008req=4. Accessed September 13, 2014. 10. Curry N, Hopewell S, Doree C, Hyde C, Brohi K, Stanworth S. The acute management of trauma hemorrhage: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials. Crit Care. 2011;15(2):R92. 11. Kheirabadi BS, Mace JE, Terrazas IB, et al. Safety evaluation of new hemostatic agents, smectite granules, and kaolin-covered gauze in a vascular injury wound model in swine. J Trauma. 2010;68:269-278. 12. Kheirabadi BS, Scherer MR, Estep JS, Dubick MA, Holcomb JB. Determination of efficacy of new hemostatic dressings in a model of extremity arterial hemorrhage in swine. J Trauma. 2009;67:450-460. 13. Kheirabadi BS. Evaluation of topical hemostatic agents for combat wound treatment. US Army Med Dep J. 2011;25-37. 14. Dee KC, Puleo DA, Bizios R. Tissue-Biomaterial Interactions. Hoboken: Wiley Sons, 2002.

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The market maker sedge awall street insider reveals how to time entry and exit points for minimum

The market maker sedge awall street insider reveals how to time entry and exit points for minimumThis book will let you see the little-known but effective trading tactics and methods of today's top market makers.--Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities

Product Description

This book will let you see the little-known but effective trading tactics and methods of today's top market makers.-- Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities

Active traders must get inside the head of the all-important market maker--The Ax--before they can begin to truly compete.

The Market Maker's Edge . written by longtime ax Josh Lukeman, is the first inside look at how axes think, what they look for, and, most important, how they can be beat.

From the Back Cover

A Market Maker Reveals How He:

Times Entry and Exit Points for Minimum Risk, Maximum Profit

Combines Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Controls His Environment Every Day, with Every Trade!

Hundreds of books, written from the buy-side viewpoint of the successful trader, promise day trading success. The Market Maker's Edge is the first book to turn the tables, working from the sell side to explain how the market maker routinely maintains the upper hand, seizing profits while controlling risk in today's volatile marketplace. Written by a Josh Lukeman--a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter market maker who has honed his skills for years-- The Market Maker's Edge reveals:

4 signals for spotting--and profiting from--a developing trend

Important risk control concepts every trader must know to protect against losses

Advanced trading strategies based on recurring technical patterns

Today's top market makers operate in intensely competitive atmosphere, with millions of dollars at stake. The Market Maker's Edge is today's only trading book written from inside the market maker's domain. Use it to open the door, and shed light on the trading tactics used by Wall Street's most powerful market making institutions.

About the Author

Josh Lukeman is an active short-term trader at Morgan Stanley, where he also produces a daily technology sector bulletin for fellow traders.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

The on-line trading revolution is transforming the investment world at a dizzying speed. In a single year, between April 1998 and April 1999, the number of trading accounts opened on-line in the United States increased 25 percent, rising to over six million. At the beginning of the year 2000, over 8 million on-line accounts exist. The potential growth rate for on-line accounts is startling, given that they comprise fewer than 10 percent of all brokerage accounts.

CNBC reported that a majority of day traders go broke within their first six months of trading. Active day traders are responsible for 30 percent of the million-plus on-line trades executed daily. The combination of the huge number of Americans who are trading on-line and the high expected failure rate for beginners results in a potential powder keg: In the first years of the new millennium, more Americans will lose money day trading than ever before. There is a national need for an all-encompassing, simple, and effective day trading guide; thus, The Market Maker's Edge.

Day traders have been around since the inception of the stock market in 1792. Human beings have speculated on prices since the dawn of currency, and this trend will continue regardless of the state of the market.

Public interest, demand, and participation in day trading increased dramatically during the roaring bull market of the 1990s. Higher rates of return, advances in technology, ease of entry provided by on-line brokers that charge lower commissions, and a public that cannot afford to retire have all contributed to the explosion in ownership and interest in the stock market. Almost 50 percent of the American public had some sort of equity ownership in 1999. The majority of these investors and traders have unrealistically high expectations of the amount of money they can expect to receive from their investments, creating a need for education.

Many of the principles behind profitable day trading are simple. Yet time and again, people tend to complicate the decision-making process due to a number of factors, both internal and external.

Day trading magnifies the emotional pitfalls people face in everyday life, including greed, fear, attachment, shame, regret, and the search for security. These emotional and psychological traps that I call the internal factors are the most common causes of financial loss in the trading world.

To be successful, every trader needs an effective trading plan. The best plans are simple and comprehensive, addressing external factors such as risk control, entry and exit, technical and fundamental analysis, trend spotting, and trading tactics.

This book stands out from most books on trading in that it places special emphasis on both the internal and external factors. It is also unique because it is written from the perspective of the sell side of the trading world, shedding light on tactics and methods used by professional Wall Street traders.

The information that has not been readily available to the public is what market makers actually do, and what makes many of them effective day traders. Day traders have all sorts of misconceptions about market makers' roles and objectives. Market makers are incorrectly stigmatized as the enemy of day traders, when in fact the main enemies of day traders are day traders themselves.

Market makers come in all shapes and sizes. They range from small retail order flow shops that do not put up any risk capital, to the largest institutional global banks that consistently take large risk to facilitate order flow. Institutional market makers' strengths lie in their experience and technical expertise. One advantage they enjoy is that they understand the way that order flow works. Large buyers or sellers always leave traces through their activity. Their activity is visible to all who know how and where to look for it. The Market Maker's Edge helps to clarify this activity, providing traders who lack market making experience with information about how order flow works. This book sheds light on a simple way to take advantage of identifying short-term trends emanating from volume.

Another advantage market makers have over day traders is their large financial backing, which permits them to expand their risk profiles in order to withstand larger losses. The large global banks that have market making operations have the deepest pockets. A $10,000 loss may be large to a day trader, but to an institutional market maker it is simply the cost of doing business. Day traders can make up for their lack of large financial backing with proper risk control and realistic expectations, both of which they will learn about in this book.

Day traders who are in the early stages of development have to overcome their lack of experience, which is often only acquired either by learning what not to do or by making mistakes. This process can be very expensive, more so than many can afford. The Market Maker's Edge provides guidance in the form of a step-by-step process for developing and maintaining a diligent risk profile, which will help beginning day traders to weather the initial storm.

Information used to be a commodity that the top market makers enjoyed as a result of having well-endowed research departments. The Internet has broken down the information barrier between global banks and individual investors. The best research is now easily accessible on the Internet for all to see. Sometimes market makers are the last ones to catch wind of important information that is released on the Internet.

The Market Maker's Edge will teach you how to trade with the best market makers, not against them. You will become adept at overcoming short-term gyrations by sticking to the methods and tactics provided in this book. The Market Maker's Edge will help you overcome fears or weaknesses by developing successful trading habits and focusing on your strengths. Your conviction and staying power will increase and you will become a better trader, less susceptible to the influences that are outside of your control.

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Tech note

Tech noteWhat is Technical Analysis?

A trading strategy is a plan. A trading strategy is a roadmap for making money by trading the markets. There is a saying: If you don't know where you are going, you will never get there. A trading strategy tells us how to get to where we want to go. Some strategies are better than others; none are perfect.

Trading is a four legged stool

You wouldn't try to plop down on a stool with a broken leg would you? You would'nt try to sit on a stool that had only two legs either would you… You should not try to trade with fewer than four legs of your trading stool firmly in place either lest you soon land on your butt. Don't let that happen.

What I mean by this is that there are (at least) four key elements to any successful trading strategy. I'm not saying there can't be more elements, only that there cannot be fewer. These are the four key elements:

Instrument selection


money mangement


The XLTrader™ add-ins available only for members of our XLTrader-Talk Google group. that are discussed on this website only help the trader with one element of his or her trading strategy. Can you guess which one? Thats right… item 2 … timing. Nobody makes money in the markets with only timing no matter how good they become at it. (And it is a skill at which anyone can learn and improve at). Any successful trader knows that market timing is only one element of a successful strading strategy. And here's a little secret…

Timing is the Least Important Element of a Trading Strategy

Novice traders find it hard to believe that timing is the least important element of a successful trading strategy. But its true. Infact in their (really good) book Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies Jeffrey Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick show that even with a random entry (meaning a flip of a coin), while its not recommended, a trader can make money provided the other elements of the stool (our trading stategy) are firmly in place.

My aim in this brief introduction is merely to alert newcomers to technical analysis and market timing that what they are learning is only one element needed to succeed in the market. It can be said that timing is a necessary but not sufficient element of an overall trading strategy. We need to choose wisely, then manage our money and the trade but most importantly manage our mind. Trading is 90% mental; trading is 10% mechanical.

Instrument selection

This seems pretty obvious but before you can trade you need to choose something to trade. There are many options to choose from. In equities you have mutual funds, exchange traded funds, stocks, 401k and 403b funds etc. You can trade bonds and bond funds. You can trade currencies (many experienced traders love trading currencies). There there are options, futures and commodites contracts which you will learn about as time progresses.

For each of these instruments there are a myriad of differnent ways to go about choosing what to buy. Sometimes these selection methods have clever names like: Fallen Angels or Dogs of the Dow or CANSLIM or a whole host of others.

Focus. Don't try to be an expert in too many things. Know what ever it is you are trading. This is why farmers should trade commodites like corn and soybeans and high-tech people might concentrate on Nasdaq stocks. The main point is this: the first element of any successful trade is choosing your market wisely.

This is where technical analysis comes in. This entire website is geared towards telling you about methods that have worked well in the past and will in all likelyhood continue to work well long after we're both gone.

Money Management

Though its not talked about nearly enough (seems everyone is focused on timing) Money Management is the key to successful trading. What exactly is money mangement you ask? Three things really:

Position sizing

Stop loss protection

Exit stratgey

Position sizing has to do with how much. Because trading is a game of chance (there is a chance we will lose money) we should not wager everthing on one trade. Gamblers do that. We're in this to make money not excitement so we want to wager the optimal amount on each trade.

Ralph Vince wrote a book called: Portfolio Management Formulas which tells you how to calculate how much to wager on any trade given the metrics (win/loss, percent win etc.) of your trading system. Those calculations are for finding the optimalf or fixed fraction of your total trading stake that is necessary to grow your account the fastest. It will also tell you what risk of ruin is. Traders need to know.

Stoploss is like a circut breaker. Think of a GFCI outlet in your house. Before you get electrocuted it breaks. When we are wrong with our analysis, we need a circuit breaker for the trade. Thats what a stop loss is. There are many different strategies for setting a stoploss. You have to find the one that works best for your system

We have timing systems to get us into the trade… and we need an exit strategy to get us out. Again, there many different option to consider but which one we choose will effect the overall profitablitly of our system. There is an old trader addage: Let you winners run and cut your losers


For most of us this is the hardest part of trading… controlling our emotions. They cause the Buy and Hold investor to sell out just as the market is bottoming. They cause the mechanical system trader to go on manual overide. They cause discresionary traders to not follow their rules. Invariably, when we do those things, we get into trouble. I have met the enemy and we are it…

There are several good trading psychologist: Mark Douglas, Brett Steenbarger etc. that can give us good advice on how to approach the mental game. Get your mind straight before you try to trade.

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Free forex data feed

Free forex data feedInsurance and Private Pension Expert


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Freedom Service Dogs is a nonprofit organization that enhances the lives of people with disabilities

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Energy trading strategies pdf

Energy trading strategies pdfFeaturing Guest Speaker Dr Christos Papadopoulos

Modelling the intrinsic value of a Generation Asset via Realistic Power Plants Operations

Spreads Call “Real” Options Valuation of Energy Assets

Physical Energy Assets’ Portfolio Optimisation

The energy market is becoming increasingly competitive and volatile. The key to maintaining a competitive advantage is to develop effective quantitative models to forecast the macro performance of commodities over time and their impact on pricing and trading strategies. With the impact of renewables, the energy market is in need of developing new practical models that can help with price forecasting, tackling volatility and optimising portfolio strategies.

With the changing global economy, there are still lots of questions that remain unaddressed such as, When and How to Implement effective quantitative models to tackle volatility and price swings? What are the best ways to Capitalise on best application models to increase your investments? How to mitigate market risks, volatility and price fluctuation to maximise asset value? What are the options to better model your performance to offset risks and develop effective hedging strategies? How to improve the understanding of renewable production and benchmark your modelling strategies? By attending the Quantitative Analysis and Physical asset valuation for the Energy markets 2014 such questions and issues can be addressed by the many professionals in the industry.

Dr Christos Papadopoulos, Regional Manager for Europe will be speaking on behalf of Energy Exemplar, discussing the complications and effective solutions to Physical Asset Valuation using our cutting edge software, PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model. PLEXOS meets the demands of market participants, planners, investors, regulators, consultants and analysts alike with a comprehensive range of features spanning all aspects of electric power and gas market modelling from economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment, through medium-term market analysis and hydro and portfolio optimisation, to long-term capacity expansion planning, all delivered through a single fully-integrated simulation engine.

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Energy portfolio optimization and trading strategies

13 March 2014, Frankfurt

Energy portfolio optimization and trading strategies

A highly practical seminar, focusing on business cases and in-depth learning KYOS and d-fine jointly present a 1-day seminar about portfolio optimization and trading strategies in energy markets. At the end of the seminar, you will have a better understanding of trading and hedging decisions drivers, incorporating price, volume and hidden risks in markets with limited liquidity.

The complete seminar agenda can be downloaded. KYOS is an expert software and consulting firm for commodity markets. D-fine is a leading quantitative consulting firm for financial and commodity markets.

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The seminar aims to attract a wide range of people active in the energy and financial sector, including

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Pacific financial derivatives review

Pacific financial derivatives reviewTraders` reviews for PFD-NZ Add review

Best Conditions

Here are my experiences with this broker.

I have been trading

13 years. I have tried at least 70 live accounts. Most broker are just awful, others honest but their trading cost are simply too high.

PFD are fair, transparent and honest with some of the lowest spreads with no commission. Slippage does occur around news, but in general it is way less than all the other retail and many prime brokers.

Spread also comes back down extremely quickly after a news release, normally within a few seconds where as many brokers hold it for a few mins.

I actually now have a volume agreement with them as I moved some large systems over. I am allowed to introduce others if anyone is interested. You get the base spread minus 0.3 pips, this will give you spread on USD/JPY and EUR/USD around 0.2 pips with no commission whatsoever. It drops sometimes to negative 0.1 pips on occasion! I have spent years hunting and these are the best real conditions I negotiated anywhere. Note this is a true (no mark up discount) so take 0.3 pips off the demo spread to assess what you will get live. You get an instant credit into your account after each trade. This is a win-win situation you the absolute best conditions, and it helps me continue a good relationship with the broker to maintain these conditions when my systems have a quiet month.

Use this link to open a live account to get these conditions.

kiwi. pfd-nz/signup/logon? ID=64857

You should know all trading styles are allowed but they reserve the right to not discount scalping trades. It is my understanding that as long as you permit them to offset their risk they are happy. In reality 80% of my trades close within a min and at

2 pips as I have a “break even” stop in my system. However, they are happy with this and don’t count this as scalping.

So all in all a good broker for some systems. If you have a solid system that needs the lowest trading conditions then they could be ideal for you.

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Market data prediction with an adaptive kalman filter by rick martinelli,haiku laboratories,decemb

Market data prediction with an adaptive kalman filter by rick martinelli,haiku laboratories,decembMARKET DATA PREDICTION WITH AN ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER


Prediction science has its foundations in mathematical statistics where, until recently, predictions involved a large number of calculations based on complicated mathematical models and had few practical applications. In the 1950's, when large amounts of radar and other data were being collected, and just as computers were becoming available, the need for different prediction methods that were more suited to the new technologies became apparent. New linear prediction algorithms were introduced by scientists and engineers to satisfy this need. One of these has become known as the Kalman Filter, named for its author, R. E. Kalman, who introduced it in 1960 (see reference [1] ).

Market data is usually available as a chart, or time-series, of prices of a particular market item. A Kalman filter is a device that can separate a time-series into two components, one called signal and the other called noise. The terms 'signal' and 'noise' are used because usual tracking data from missiles, submarines, etc. consists of a 'true' value for the object's location (the signal) that has been contaminated with extraneous 'noise' from a variety of sources. It is only when estimates of true values are available that the next location may be predicted with any accuracy. In applying these methods to the markets, we are making certain tacit assumptions about our time-series. We are assuming there is a smooth trend line within the data which, in some sense, represents the 'true' value of our market item before it was perturbed by 'market noise'. In this way we are mimicking the behavior of, say, a submarine sending noisy sonar signals to an enemy whose job is to predict the submarine's next position. By fitting the last few trend-line values to a suitable model, we can then extend the model to the next time-value, and generate a prediction.

A Kalman filter tracks a time-series using a two-stage process.

1. At every point in the time-series, a prediction is made of the next value based a few of the most recent estimates, and on the data-model contained in the Kalman filter equations.

2. Then, the next actual data point is read, and a compromise value between the predicted and actual values is calculated based on the amount of noise in the time-series.

This compromise value serves as the next 'true' value for prediction. For today's data point, tomorrow's value is unavailable and we take the predicted value from the first stage as our prediction of tomorrow's price. The algorithm also maintains an estimate of the accuracy of this prediction, which is based on its historical accuracy, and is reported as the standard deviation of the prediction. For applications in market-data prediction, the Alfa indicator is introduced as a way of generating buy/sell signals. This indicator incorporates a market item's predicted price change, and the uncertainty of the prediction, into a single number. A portfolio of market items may be sorted by their Alfa values for further consideration, or the Alfa's may be used in conjunction with other market indicators in a trading scheme. A second indicator, called the Fortune, is introduced for accessing the algorithm's historical success in predicting the correct direction an item will move in the next tick. The Fortune indicator can be used on any scheme that makes a prediction at every tick.

Time-Series and Signal Processing

A time-series is defined as any set of numbers arranged in chronological order, with the same time interval between any neighboring pair of numbers. As a concrete example we will use one year of daily closes (264 data points) of IBM stock ending 10/23/95 (see Figure 1). For our purposes the date range of the chart is unimportant; we are concerned only with predicting tomorrow's price from data through today. As mentioned in the Introduction, a Kalman filter separates a time-series into two components, one called trend, or signal, and the other called noise.

Figure 1. IBM daily closing prices for a 264 day period ending 10/23/95

Let's represent our time-series by the sequence of numbers

where N = 264 in our case, and assume it has been produced by a model of the form

where the subscript n is the time variable and takes values from 1 to N (see reference [2] for details).

The letter X is called a state vector and, in our case, holds the last few trend-line (signal) estimates. The letter A represents a matrix that contains the model by which trend values are updated. In theory, these updates are then corrupted by B n . called model noise, to produce the next state vector. The geometry matrix C converts the state vector to a number and finally D n . called observation noise, is added to produce the observed Z value. The state model-update matrix A, together with its associated state vector X, are what makes this Kalman filter unique among all other Kalman filters. A derivation of matrix A and a discussion of its properties are contained in [3]. Basically, the signal is assumed to be a (different) polynomial on every sub-segment of fixed length, where the degree of A determines the degree of the polynomial and the length of the sub-segments. Simulation results on this filter are contained in [4], and results on the use of this filter to track military targets are contained in [5].

For suitable startup state X 0 . the filter may be thought of as a black box that generates Z from the fixed data model contained in A and C, and the noise terms. These noise terms each have a certain unknown variance, or intensity, that is ultimately reflected in the volatility of the market item. If they were known, the Kalman filter could be adjusted, or tuned, to the data volatility by initially specifying the ratio of the noise variances. If V B represents the variance of B n and V D is the variance of D n . their ratio is called the Tracking Parameter T and is defined as T = V B /V D . (See also [6].) As the filter passes over the data generating estimates of X, it also estimates the values of V B and V D . At each data point then, the filter uses these estimates to adjust T. This ability to adjust the tracking parameter to match the data during tracking is what makes the filter 'adaptive'. To find the best T value for each market item, the algorithm is allowed to iterate through 100 values of T from 0.1 to 10.0 and find the best value in the sense that predicted prices overall are closest to the item's actual, historical prices. In general, smaller T values are found with more volatile market items.

The data in Figure 1 was tracked with a third degree Kalman filter, with the tracking parameter automatically chosen as described above. Figure 2 shows the last 25 data points in detail, together with the Kalman predictions at each point. Notice that the filter performs well when the data is relatively smooth. but fails when the data makes an abrupt direction change. This is because the filter cannot “see” into the future and expects the data to maintain its current trend. Future predictions, like “tomorrow’s” price, are extrapolated, noise-free state values:

and so on, together with their standard deviations. Three future predictions are also shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Kalman predictions (+) for the last 25 IBM data points, shownwith the data (solid line), and predictions for 3 points into the future.

Buy-Sell Signals and The ALFA Indicator

The Kalman scheme provides predictions at every time point in the data range (except the first few startup points), and standard deviations for every prediction. As the filter passes over the data, these standard deviations tend to an average value that is related to the variances that defined T in Section 2, above. Consequently, whenever a predicted price change exceeds this average by a significant amount, it becomes worthy of the trader’s attention. The predicted price change and its accompanying standard deviation may be incorporated into one statistic, called ALFA, and denoted by a, which we define here as the predicted price change divided by the standard deviation of the prediction

Defined in this way, a is a normalized indicator and so can be used to compare between different market items, rather than just within one item historically. A portfolio of market items may be sorted by their current a values (with the minus sign removed for decreasing items) to reveal the largest predicted changes and/or smallest uncertainties. Items near the top of the list could then be studied further. Whenever a exceeds one, for example, the predicted price change exceeds one standard deviation, that is, the average standard deviation that have been “experienced’ by the filter on during its scan.

Figure 3. Historical Alfa values for IBM data.

Figure 3. Shows historical a’s for the IBM data. If the first 50 points are ignored, due to filter startup, we see that a seldom exceeds one, and only once reached a value of two. In practice, a’s greater than ten have been found. Such large values usually mean the item has been trending in the same direction for several days

Figure 3 suggests the following buy/sell flags: buy when a exceeds a predefined value; sell when it is less than the another. pre-defined value. In the example below, these values are set at 1.8 and -1.8, respectively, and the buys and sells recorded. A summary of the filter’s performance under these conditions is provided by the Fortune indicator, defined next.

Back-testing and the Fortune Indicator

A trading scheme can be thought of here as input-output device for generating buy/sell signals when presented with a market chart. Back-testing is a general procedure for testing the potential effectiveness of a trading scheme. The idea is to apply the scheme to historical data on representative portfolio charts. That is, simply record the buys and sells indicated by the scheme, without actually investing, and keep track of the profits and losses. To provide a visual record of the historical performance of the scheme, we define an indicator called the Fortune as follows.

We begin by modeling a trading scheme as a simple gambling system. Suppose each market item has its own roulette wheel, where the values on the wheel represent possible closing prices, and the wheel is spun once every day to determine the next price. At each spin the trader may place a single bet of one betting unit on either black (for price increase), or red (for a decrease), depending on the buy/sell signals coming from the trading scheme. If a bet is place, and if the filter has guessed the correct direction of price movement, we are returned our investment plus whatever amount the increase or decrease represents in fractions of a betting unit. If not, we get our investment back minus that same amount. Notice that the trader shows a profit whenever the filter guesses correctly, regardless of the direction of price movement. After each bet, we record the accumulated number of betting units as our Fortune to date.

A graph of the Fortune indicator for the IBM data is shown in Figure 4. For this scan, the value of a indicating a buy (the buy flag) was set at 1.8, and the sell flag was set at -1.8. Also, for the purpose of investing, the first 50 days of the scan are ignored, while the filter is stabilizing.

Figure 4. The Fortune indicator for IBM data. Alfa buy flags = 1.8,sell flag = -1.8.

At day 102. a exceeded the buy flag at 2.01 (see Figure 3), and one unit was invested. However, the price closed lower the following day (as can be seen on careful inspection of Figure 1) and the resulting loss is shown as a drop of about 0.6% in the Fortune. At day 139, a just exceeded the buy flag at 1.86. This time the investment resulted in a profit of 1.7%. Finally, for two consecutive days, 222 and 223, a ‘s below the sell flag at -1.82 and -1.86 resulted in profits of 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively. The corresponding down-trend can be seen in Figure 1, and is shown again in Figure 5 together with the Kalman predictions.

Figure 5. IBM data (solid line) and Kalman predictions (+) for a 20-day period containing a profitable down-trend.

Summary Conclosions

Adaptive Kalman filters that have proved so useful in military applications, have been shown here to also be effective in market predictions, when used in conjunction with suitable indicators, and when properly adjusted. To evaluate the filters in an investment setting, the a indicator defined in Section 3 was designed to be a buy/sell indicator in a trading scheme that employs the Kalman predictions. The Fortune indicator defined in Section 4 was designed to provide a graphical display of the results. An arbitrarily selected market item was tested and a-values were found that resulted profitable investments three out of four times.

However, this scheme is of limited value as a practical investment scheme. In practice, a trader employing a prediction scheme should always intervene when an apparently trending item is found, and search for additional news on the item. Also, the scheme described here requires a single day turn-around, and no commissions on trades, both non-realistic conditions.

Lastly, given the nature of the markets, the value of this, or any other prediction scheme, is questionable when applied to only a handful of market items. However, current technology has made data for many thousands of market items available to the public at reasonable prices. The results in this memo suggest that, by searching such large portfolios and placing sufficient restrictions on the selection process, significantly trending market items may be found with adaptive Kalman filters.


[1]. Kalman, R. E. A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems, ASME Transactions, Series D, 82, 35-45, (1961).

[3]. Martinelli, R. Curve Fitting and the Kalman Filter, Kentron International Departmental Correspondence, December 2, 1978.

[4]. Martinelli, R. Mathematical description of 3D track preprocessor, Honeywell Marine Systems Center Technical Memorandum, H476-90-001, 30 March 1979.

[5]. Parker. J. D. Tracking filters for Precision Electronic Support Systems, Defense Technical Information Center. Cameron Station, Alexandria. Virginia 22304. DTIC# A264 089, 1992.

[6]. Kalata. P. R. The Tracking Index: A generarized parameter for ab and abg Target Trackers”, IEEE Transactions on aerospace and electronic systems, Vol AES-20, p174, 1984.

Online Market data prediction with an adaptive kalman filter by rick martinelli,haiku laboratories,decemb

Forex training seminars

Forex training seminarsJune 3-6, 2008 - Traders Expo (the Money Show) in Los Angeles, California

April 18, 2008 - FXDD workshop in San Diego, CA

Scott Barkley spoke to Beginners in the Morning and Advanced traders in the afternoon. Also on hand were Greg Michalowski resident FX strategist for FXDD, Jeff Baskin and Mike Zimkind.

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Online trading terms

Online trading termsOnline Trading Terms

1 Introduction

1.1 keyorganics (the Site) is operated by Key Organics Limited (we, our and us). 1.2 The terms contained in this document (Trading Terms) apply to all transactions for the purchase of Goods from the Site. Please read these Trading Terms carefully before ordering from the Site. By ordering any Goods from the Site you are indicating your acceptance to be bound by these Trading Terms to the exclusion of all other terms and conditions, prior promises, representations, statements and warranties. They form a legal agreement between you and us and can only be amended with our consent. No conduct by us shall constitute acceptance of any other terms or conditions. 1.3 You should also read our Privacy Policy. All transactions for Goods not made via the Site are subject to our Terms and Conditions for Sale, which are available on request. 1.4 We reserve the right to change these Trading Terms from time to time without prior notice by changing them on the Site, provided that any such change will not affect any purchases you have made before the change is implemented. 1.5 In these conditions the words below have the meaning next to them:

2 Registered Users

2.1 In order to ensure that our Goods are only supplied to organisations with legitimate interests in organic compounds, we only sell our Goods via the Site to businesses and recognised research institutions who register as users prior to making purchases online (Registered Users). Registered Users will have a user name and password that must be used in order to access the purchase pages on the Site. Each Registered User must keep its user name and password confidential and secure. 2.2 To register as a user you must supply us with the information about your organisation requested on the Site. Any information supplied will be used in accordance with our Privacy Policy. 2.3 In registering as a user and making purchases from the Site you warrant that the information you have supplied is true, complete and accurate. 2.4 We reserve the right to refuse any application to become a registered user for any reason whatsoever, including without limitation if we have reason to believe that you have provided inaccurate or misleading information to us at any point, have failed to keep your registered user details confidential or that you may wish to obtain our Goods for any reason that is unlawful, immoral or anti-social.

3 Ordering

3.1 You may place an order to purchase Goods advertised for sale on the Site by following the onscreen prompts after clicking on the item you are interested in (Goods). You will have an opportunity to check and correct any input errors in your order up until the point at which you submit your order by clicking the Submit for Payment Now button on the order confirmation page. 3.2 All orders placed by you are subject to acceptance by us. We may choose not to accept your order for any reason and will not be liable to you or to anyone else in those circumstances. 3.3 After submitting an order to us, you will be sent an order acknowledgement email with your order reference and details of the Goods you have ordered. Please note, this email is an acknowledgement and is not an acceptance of your order. 3.4 If your order includes Goods which are not available from stock and cannot be manufactured to be available for dispatch within 14 days of order, we will contact you by email or by telephone to ask you how you wish to proceed. You will have the option to wait until the Goods are available or cancel your order. 3.5 Acceptance of your order and the formation of a contract between us will take place when we send you an email confirming that the Goods you have ordered are being despatched to you, unless we have notified you that we do not accept your order or you have already cancelled it in accordance with the provisions below (see Cancellations and returns).

4 Orders and specification

4.1 The quantity, quality and description of and/or any specification for the Goods shall be those set out in your order and confirmed by us in the acknowledgment e-mail. 4.2 All other illustrations, descriptive material or other information contained on the Site, in our brochures, advertising materials or elsewhere shall not form part of the Contract and shall be treated as approximate and for guidance only. 4.3 Our employees or agents are not authorised to make any representations concerning our Goods or services and such representations will not form part of this Contract unless confirmed by us in writing. 4.4 Any advice or recommendation given by us, our employees or agents to you, your employees or agents as to the storage, application or use of the Goods which is not confirmed by us in writing is followed or acted upon entirely at your own risk, and accordingly, we shall not be liable for any such advice or recommendation which is not so confirmed.

5 Prices and payment

5.1 Subject to the remainder of these conditions, all purchases made via the Site will be at the prices set out on the Site. Any quotations given by the Seller, its employees or agents other than at the prices specified on the Site cannot be processed via the Site. 5.2 Payment can be made in pounds (?) sterling, euros (€) or US Dollars ($). You will be given the opportunity to select which of these currencies (sterling, euros or US Dollars) you wish to use and prices will be displayed in the chosen currency. Purchases will be at the price displayed in the chosen currency of payment. 5.3 Unless otherwise stated all prices are exclusive delivery charges and exclusive of VAT or any other tax, duty, tariff or charge arising in the UK or elsewhere including any import duties, local taxes or other local charges. Delivery charges will apply where a Delivery Address other than our premises is specified. In that case, we will arrange carriage, freight and insurance against loss of or damage to the Goods while they are in transit to you and the full cost (including VAT where applicable) will be charged to you in addition to the cost of the Goods. This will vary according to the Delivery Address and the size and nature of your order. Delivery charges will be added to the total amount due. 5.4 Prices may change at any time prior to (but not after) acceptance of your order. 5.5 We cannot accept your order until you have paid for it in full. Payment can be made by most major credit or debit cards, by completing the relevant details on the checkout page. We will only deliver to business premises or premises belonging to recognised research establishments. 5.6 By using a credit/debit card to pay for your order, you warrant that the card being used is either: 5.6.1 yours and that you are acting as agent for your organisation with full authority to enter into this transaction; or 5.6.2 your organisations and that you have valid authority from your organisation to make the purchase with its credit/debit card. 5.7 All credit/debit card holders are subject to validation checks and authorisation by the card issuer. If the issuer of your card refuses to authorise payment we will not accept your order, we will not be obliged to inform you of the reason for the refusal, and we will not be liable for non-delivery. We are not responsible for your card issuer or bank charging you as a result of our processing of your credit/debit card payment in accordance with your order. 5.8 In the unlikely event that the price of an item has been incorrectly advertised on the Site, we will contact you by email or telephone to ask whether you wish to proceed with the order at the correct price. If you are not happy to proceed, or we are unable to obtain your instructions, we will cancel the order. Unless we have already confirmed despatch of your order, we will not be obliged to supply Goods at the incorrect price. 5.9 The Registered User shall be solely responsible for any associated bank charges incurred by us in relation to the purchase of the Goods, including without limitation any currency conversion charges where payment is made other than in pounds sterling.

6 Delivery

6.1 Unless otherwise agreed in writing between us and the Registered User all prices are given by us on an ex-works basis and where we agree to deliver the Goods otherwise than at our premises, you shall also be liable to pay the full cost (including any taxes or duties) for: standard packaging, carriage, freight and insurance for the delivery of the Goods to any address or place which has been specified in writing by you and agreed by us prior to delivery (Delivery Address). 6.2 Subject to availability, we will use reasonable endeavours to deliver the Goods you have ordered as soon as possible after your order is accepted by us. We will usually deliver all Goods comprised in your order in one delivery, unless your order consists of multiple Goods, some of which are not available from stock/for an extended period, in which case, if all Goods are not ready for despatch within 7 days of you placing your order, we will separately despatch those items that are. 6.3 We will deliver directly to the address specified in your order. We cannot deliver items within the same order to multiple addresses. 6.4 Deliveries in the UK are made Monday to Friday (excluding bank holidays and public holidays in the country of delivery), normally between the hours of 8am and 5pm. The precise timing of a delivery cannot be specified. Certain deliveries may require a signature to confirm receipt. Times for deliveries outside the UK may vary. 6.5 Once delivered, the Goods ordered will become your property (provided they have been paid for in full) and your responsibility and, except in relation to Goods that are damaged or faulty when delivered or have been incorrectly delivered, we will not accept any liability for their loss, damage or destruction after they have been delivered. 6.6 If you fail to take delivery of the Goods or fails to give us adequate delivery instructions at the time stated for delivery (otherwise than by reason of any cause beyond your reasonable control or by reason of the our fault) then without prejudice to any other right or remedy available to the us, we may: 6.6.1 store the Goods until actual delivery and charge you for the reasonable costs (including insurance) of storage; or 6.6.2 sell the Goods at the best price readily obtainable and (after deducting all reasonable storage and selling expenses) account to you for the excess over the price under the Contract or charge you for any shortfall below the price under the Contract.

7 Risk and Property

7.1 The risk of any loss or damage to, or deterioration of, the Goods shall pass to you: 7.1.1 in the case of Goods to be delivered at our premises (by you collecting the Goods), at the time when we notify you that the Goods are available for collection; or 7.1.2 in the case of Goods to be delivered otherwise than at our premises (usually to the Delivery Address), at the time of delivery or, if you wrongfully fail to take delivery of the Goods, the time when we had tendered delivery of the Goods. 7.2 Notwithstanding delivery and the passing of risk in the Goods, or any other provision of these Conditions, the property in the Goods shall not pass to you until we have received in cash or cleared funds, payment in full of the price of the Goods and all other goods agreed to be sold by we to you for which payment is then due. 7.3 Until such time as the property in the Goods passes to you: 7.3.1 in the case of Goods to be delivered otherwise than at our premises you shall hold the Goods as our fiduciary agent and bailee; 7.3.2 shall keep the Goods separate from those of you and/or any third parties and properly stored, protected, insured and identified as our property but you shall be entitled to resell or use the Goods in the ordinary course is its business; and 7.3.3 (provided that if the Goods are still in existence and have not been resold) we shall be entitled at any time to require you to deliver up the Goods to us and, if you fail to do so forthwith, to enter upon any premises of you and/or the premises of any third party where the Goods are stored, and to repossess the Goods. 7.4 You shall not be entitled to pledge or in any way change by way of security for any indebtedness any of the Goods which remain our property, but if you do so all monies owing by you to us shall (without prejudice to any other right or remedy of ours) forthwith become due and payable.

8 Cancellations and returns

8.1 No order which has been accepted by us may be cancelled or varied by you except with our agreement in writing and terms that you shall indemnify us in full against all loss (including loss of profit), costs (including the cost of all labour and materials used), damage, charges and expenses incurred by us as a result of the cancellation. 8.2 Subject to 7.1 above, if you cancel your order, any undisputed sum debited by us from your credit/debit card will be refunded in full to the same card.

9 Shortages and damage of Goods and/or loss in transit

9.1 You shall inspect the Goods immediately upon delivery and shall notify the Seller in writing in relation to any claim it has based on: 9.1.1 any defect in the quality or condition of the Goods or their failure to correspond with specification (whether or not delivery is refused by you); and 9.1.2 any claims it has on account of damage to, or total or partial loss of the Goods while in transit; 9.1.3 within three working days from the date of delivery or (where the defect or failure was not apparent on reasonable inspection) within a reasonable time after discovery of the defect or failure. 9.2 Any claims for non-delivery must be submitted in writing to the Seller within 14 working days after notification of despatch. 9.3 If the Seller fails to make delivery or makes defective delivery of any one instalment of Goods listed on an Order, the defective delivery shall not vitiate the Contract as regards other instalments. 9.4 If delivery is not refused, and you does not notify the Seller of any claim in accordance with the provisions of this clause, you shall not be entitled to reject the Goods and the Seller shall have no liability for such defects or failure, and you shall be bound to pay the price as if the Goods had been delivered in accordance with the Contract.

10 Intellectual Property

10.1 All patents, trade marks, trade names, and designs whether registered or unregistered in or relating to the Goods, associated packaging or any documentation (including without limitation technical data, drawings, reports and marketing materials) are and shall remain absolutely our property. You agree that such material may not be used except in connection with the operation, maintenance and use of the Goods and may not be disclosed to any third party. 10.2 You agree that you will not at any time without prior written consent from us manufacture or have manufactured any goods in imitation of our Goods.

11 Orders for delivery outside the United Kingdom

11.1 Where the Goods are supplied for export from the United Kingdom, the provisions of this Condition apply (subject to any special terms agreed in writing between the Parties) and any term or expression which is defined in or given a particular meaning by the provisions of Incoterms has the same meaning in these Conditions, unless there is any conflict, in which case these Conditions will prevail. 11.2 Unless otherwise agreed in writing, the Goods will be delivered EXW as defined in the International Rules for the Interpretation of Trade Terms, 2000. We are under no obligation to give notice under section 32(3) of the Sale of Goods Act 1979. 11.3 If you order Goods for delivery outside the United Kingdom, you are responsible for ensuring that the Goods comply with the laws and regulations of the country to which it requires the Goods to be supplied and for obtaining the necessary export/import licences, consents and approvals. You will not hold us liable for any failure to comply with those laws and regulations or to obtain the necessary licences, consents or approvals and you accept liability and responsibility for and import duty or other local tax.

12 Warranties and Limitation of Liability

12.1 We warrant to you that: 12.1.1 the Goods shall confirm to the description of such Goods as provided in our most recent catalogues (either in published form or as listed at keyorganics. ltd. uk) or, in the case of Custom Synthesis, shall conform to the description accompanying the Goods; and 12.1.2 that the Goods are produced within the accepted tolerance and purity levels set out in our official literature and specifications including on the Site unless otherwise specified by us during the purchase process. 12.2 We will be under no liability: 12.2.1 in respect of any fault in the Goods arising from any drawing, design or specification or materials supplied by you; 12.2.2 in respect of any damage caused by any materials or compounds supplied by that result from Custom Synthesis where such materials or compounds have been either: (a) manufactured to your own drawings, specifications or design; or (b) manufactured using materials supplied by you which prove to be defective. 12.2.3 in respect of any defect, arising from wilful damage, negligence, failure to follow our instructions (whether oral or in writing), misuse, alteration of the Goods without our approval; 12.2.4 under any other warranty, condition or guarantee if the total price for the Goods has not been paid by the due date for payment. 12.3 Where any valid claim in respect of any of the Goods which is based on any defect in the quality or condition of the Goods or their failure to meet specification is notified to us in accordance with these Trading Terms, we shall, at its sole discretion, replace the Goods free of charge but we shall have no further liability to you. 12.4 We will not be liable to you where performance of any of our obligations is prevented or restricted by any circumstance or cause beyond our reasonable control, including without limitation, Act of God; industrial action; import or export regulations or embargoes; difficulties in obtaining raw materials, labour, fuel, parts or machinery; power failure or breakdown in machinery. 12.5 You are responsible for the use you make of the Goods you order. To the extent not prohibited by law, we accept no liability for any loss which is not reasonably foreseeable or for any business loss (which includes loss of profits, contracts, goodwill, opportunity and other similar losses). 12.6 We accept liability for death or personal injury caused by our negligence and responsibility for fraudulent misrepresentation and any other liability that cannot, under English law, be excluded. 12.7 Save as expressly provided in these Trading Terms or as otherwise agreed in writing, we do not give you any guarantees, conditions or warranties whether express or implied by statute or common law or otherwise except that this provision shall in no way exclude any warranties, conditions or other terms where the Goods are sold to the person dealing as a consumer (within the meaning of the Unfair Contracts Terms Act 1977). 12.8 Except in respect of death or personal injury caused by our negligence, we shall not be liable to you by reason of any representation (other than fraudulent misrepresentation) or any implied warranty, condition or other term, or any duty at common law, or under the express terms of the Contract for any consequential loss or damage (whether for loss of profit or otherwise), costs, expenses, or other claim for consequential compensation whatsoever (and whether caused by the negligence of us, its employees or agents or otherwise) above the purchase price of the quantity of the Goods in respect of which such loss or damage is claimed, except as expressly provided in these conditions. 12.9 Nothing in this section or elsewhere in our Trading Terms affects your statutory legal rights.

13 Indemnity

13.1 You shall indemnify us in respect of all damage or injury occurring to any person, company or property and against all actions, suits, claims and demands, charges or expenses in connection therewith for which we may become liable in respect of the Goods (including in relation to any use or application of the Goods) under a contract that is subject to these Trading Terms in the event that the damage or injury have been occasioned otherwise than by our negligence. 13.2 You shall indemnify and keep us indemnified against all costs, expenses, damages and demands incurred by us in respect of: 13.2.1 any alleged infringement of the patents, trade marks, , design or other industrial property rights used by us at the request of you; 13.2.2 any alleged breach or infringement of any statute or regulation concerning the preparation, marketing and distribution of the Goods to you; 13.2.3 any damage caused to you or to any third parties where the materials or compounds supplied by us result from Custom Synthesis and have been either: (a) manufactured to your own drawings, specifications or designs; or (b) manufactured using materials supplied by you which prove to be defective. 13.2.4 any alleged breach of any statute in relation to the trade descriptions or weights and measures where we relied or have relied upon information relating thereto or labels provided by you, and the breach does not arise from the negligence or default of us; 13.2.5 any claims arising and made under the Consumer Protection Act 1987 and which arise by reason of or in connection with a defect in the Goods or in the end product manufactured and/or supplied by you in which the Goods are comprised, which defect is attributable either to the compliance by us with the instructions given by you or to your design of the end product.

14 Security

14.1 We understand that you may have concerns about security on the internet. The Site uses a secure server in our online ordering process to protect your personal information. 14.2 All payment transactions will be processed on our behalf by SECPay. This means that your credit/debit card details are provided directly to SECPay and are never revealed to us. SECPay operates a secure server to process your payment details. SECPay encrypts your credit/debit card information and authorises payment. 14.3 We recommend that you do not communicate your payment card details to anyone, including us, by email. We cannot be responsible for any losses you may incur in transmitting information to us by internet link or by email. Any such loss shall be entirely your responsibility. 14.4 If you have any additional queries about security, please email us at: securitykeyorganics

15 General

15.1 Key Organics Limited is a company registered in the United Kingdom. Our company number is 02055784 and our registered office address is 69 Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 3PB. Our VAT registration number is GB 441 2642 78. 15.2 Any notice under these Trading Terms shall be in writing and, unless delivered to a party personally, shall be sent by first class post, recorded delivery, facsimile or e-mail to, in the case of us to the address detailed below and in the case of you to the address given on your application to become a Registered User. 15.3 Failure by us to enforce a right does not result in waiver of such right. You may not assign or transfer your rights under these Trading Terms. 15.4 If any part of these Trading Terms is found to be unenforceable as a matter of law, all other parts of these Trading Terms shall be unaffected and shall remain in force. 15.5 The headings in these Trading Terms are for convenience, have no legal effect and should be disregarded when interpreting these Trading Terms. 15.6 If an order for Goods is formed in part via the Site and in part by other means then the relevant provisions of these Trading Terms and the Terms and Conditions of Sale shall apply as appropriate. If there is any conflict between the relevant provisions then the latter shall take precedence. 15.7 The contract of which these Trading Terms form a part is personal to the Registered User who shall not be entitled to assign the benefit thereof without our written consent. 15.8 Except as expressly provided in these Trading Terms, a person who is not a party to this contract has no right under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act 1999 to enforce any term of the contract. 15.9 English law applies to these Trading Terms and the parties submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English Courts as regards any claim or matter arising in connection with any sale that is subject to the Trading Terms.

Stock Trading Terminology

Understanding the stock trading terminology is a necessary step for anyone interested in the stock market. In this article, well introduce a few basic terms that make up the lingo of investors.

Buy and Hold . to buy and hold is a long term stock trading strategy. It implies buying stocks and keeping them for a long period of time before selling them. For a good number of stocks, it is historically a sound strategy, as the stock market has always gone up as a whole in the long run. Many investors, such as Warren Buffet, typically invest on companies which they are confident will be successful in the next 10 years or so, making them less likely to suffer the drawbacks on cycles and inflation.

Capital Gain . when the value of an asset exceeds its purchase price, the increase is called capital gain . Capital gain is either realized or unrealized . depending on whether the assets have actually been sold or not.

Capital Loss . when there is a decrease in an assets current value versus its purchase price, there is a capital loss .

Day Trader . a day trader is an investor who typically holds assets for a short period of time, usually trading them in the same day. Traders who perform 4 or more day trades within 5 business days are referred to as pattern day trader by the SEC (U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission), and may be subject to particular requirements, rules and restrictions.

Dividends . some corporations can decide to distribute earnings directly to all or part of their shareholders, rather than reinvesting them. Such earnings distributed are called dividends, and dividend stocks have a parameter called Dividend Per Share (DPS). Dividends most often come from stable and long established corporations.

Equity . equity represents ownership in a corporation, in the form of common or preferred stock. It can also be interpreted, in the case of futures or margin accounts, as the net value of the account if all positions were to be closed and margins paid off.

Going Long . going long means that a trade is done with the expectation that profit will come from an increase in the exchange rate. It the most intuitive and optimistic way a trade can be profitable.

Going Short (Selling Short) . going short is the opposite of going long; it occurs when a trader is confident in making profit from a drop in the value of the traded assets.

Growth Strategy (growth stock) . betting on growth stock is a stock trading strategy in which a trader aims at generating capital gains rather than dividends. Growth stocks are expected to grow at a rate superior than the average, and growth companies usually reinvest earnings. Technology companies often classify themselves as growth companies.

Hedge Funds . hedge funds are investment funds actively managed for a limited number of investors and institutions, using a wide range of investment strategies, methods and tools, such as short selling, derivatives, swaps and arbitrage. Hedge funds usually require a rather high minimum investment, and are managed by professionals charging management and performance-based fees.

Large Cap . large cap stands for large capitalization, and refers to companies with a market capitalization value of 10 billion US dollars or more.

Mid Cap . mid cap and refers to corporations with a market capitalization value between 2 and 10 billion US dollars.

Overweight . being overweight means that an investors portfolio holds more of a particular type of stock compared to the weight of that type of stock, in the relevant index. For instance, if an investors portfolio is comprised of 30% Growth stocks, and that Growth stocks represent 20% of the associated index, the portfolio is referred to as 10% overweight in Growth stocks.

S&P 500 . S&P 500 stands for the market-value weighted index of Standards and Poors choice of 500 large cap common stocks traded currently in the United States. It is a good representation of the American economy as a whole.

Shorting . shorting, or short selling, or going short, means that an investor, hopeful that some assets value will drop, borrows them from a third party (a broker, most often), sells them, and makes the promise of returning the assets at a later time. The profit made is the difference between the price of the assets when sold versus its price when they were bought back. This can obviously yield a loss for the trader if the value goes up.

Small Cap . small cap, or small capitalization corporations, typically hold a market capitalization of between 300 million and 2 billion US dollars.

Spread . the spread for a security or asset is the difference between the current ask and the current bid price.

Volatility . volatility is a measure of risk for a security. It refers to the standard deviation of a securitys price over a certain period of time. High volatility means that the price of the security tends to move up and down quickly over a determined period of time, making it more risky.

By placing your order via this site you are agreeing to be bound by our online trading terms as shown below.


Please note our terms and conditions for all returns - damaged, broken or incorrectly ordered:

If you receive an item from us which has been damaged/broken during transit, please contact us within 48 hours of receipt of goods and return said item to us for a replacement. Carriage is non-refundable.

We cannot replace/credit any items returned to us that are showing signs of extreme wear and tear. Our suppliers will not credit us for any items in this condition, so therefore please do not return them. If however it has been purchased recently and there is an obvious manufacturing fault, we will be pleased to replace it.

All returns (old or new stock) will be closely assessed before replacing/crediting. If your item is no longer a stock product we will issue a credit for the value at which it was last in stock at. If the item is not from our stock range, i. e. it is not our colouring or we have never carried it in our range, it will be returned to you. Also, if your return is from very old stock that we cannot return to our supplier, a credit cannot be issued.

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Instantly improve your trading strategy with support and resistance

Instantly improve your trading strategy with support and resistanceInstantly Improve Your Trading Strategy with Support and Resistance

What is the best way to improve your trading strategy? Use support and resistance concepts in your trading strategy.

Learn how to use support and resistance levels in your trading strategy to improve your trading results.

What are Support and Resistance levels?

Before you learn about support and resistance, you must first understand basic demand and supply.

Demand and supply are the underlying forces of price movements. Market turns up when demand overwhelms supply and turns down when supply overcomes demand.

(Technical analysis studies recurring price patterns that result from demand and supply changes. Fundamental analysis drills into the determinants of demand and supply.)

Prices move up when demand is stronger than supply. Buyers are more eager to buy than sellers are willing to sell. So buyers will offer a higher price to entice sellers. Price rises.

Prices drop when supply is stronger than demand. Sellers are more eager to sell than buyers are willing to buy. In this case, sellers will lower their asking price until buyers are willing to buy. Prices fall.

At support levels, we expect demand to overwhelm supply. When demand is stronger than supply, price will rise. Or at least, price will stop falling at the support level.

At resistance levels, as supply overcomes demand, we expect the price to stop rising and fall.

Take note that support and resistance are not clear-cut price levels. They occur over a range of prices. However, for convenience and clarity, many technical analysts draw lines to mark out support and resistance.

Drawing lines to represent support and resistance is acceptable as long as you understand that the lines actually represent zones where the demand and supply imbalance switches.

How to find support and resistance levels?

Swing Highs and Swing Lows

Swing highs and swing lows are earlier market turning points. Hence, they are natural choices for projecting support and resistance levels.

Every swing point is a potential support or resistance level. However, for effective trading, focus on major swing highs and lows.

Congestion Areas

Market participants have spent a prolonged time in congestion areas. It is likely that they have formed psychological attachment or have established actual trading interest within that price range. Hence, earlier market congestion areas are reliable support and resistance levels.

Congestion areas reinforces the idea that support and resistance are zones, and not a specific price level.

If you need help finding congestion areas, price by volume charts might help.

Psychological Numbers

Humans attach significance to certain numbers.

Round numbers are the best examples. Round numbers always make financial headlines. The Natural Number Trading Strategy derives its trading edge from round numbers.

The 52-week high and low price of a security is another example of a psychologically important number.

Calculated Support/Resistance

Fibonacci retracement is another popular method for projecting support and resistance by calculation. With a decent charting package, we can mark out retracement levels easily without manual calculation.

Identify major market swings and focus on retracement of the move by a Fibonacci ratio.

Fibonacci ratios include 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. A 100% retracement is the same as using a swing high/low as resistance/support.

The intraday trend trading strategy we reviewed uses Fibonacci retracements to find the best trades.

Flipping of Support/Resistance

Flipping is an important concept for support and resistance. It refers to the phenomenon of support turning into resistance or resistance turning into support.

When price breaks through a support level, it shows a shift of power from buyers to sellers. The support level then becomes a resistance level that sellers are confident of defending. The reverse is true for price breaking through resistance.

This concept is applicable regardless of the method you use to find support and resistance levels.

Support/Resistance from Higher Time-frame

To focus on major support and resistance levels, you can find them on higher time-frames before applying them to your trading time-frame for analysis.

For instance, you can note down the support and resistance levels from the weekly chart. Then, plot them on the daily chart to find trading opportunities.

This method keeps you focused on important support and resistance levels instead of flooding your chart with dozens of potential support and resistance levels.

How to use support and resistance levels in your trading strategy?

Trading Direction

In up trends, support levels are likely to hold. In down trends, resistance levels tend to hold.

Hence, if you see that support levels are holding up, you might consider taking only long trades. The reverse is true if you see resistance levels holding up.

Paying attention to price levels is a simple way to find a clear market bias.

This example shows major swing lows that are holding up as support, which is a sign of a bullish market.

Filter Bad Trades

Your trading strategy might have its own way of determining market bias. In that case, do not confuse your analysis with support and resistance. Rely on your trading strategy for a primary bias.

However, you can use support and resistance analysis to augment your trading strategy.

For instance, if your trading strategy dictates a buy, but price is right below a major resistance level, you might want to wait for a clear break-out of the resistance before entering on pullbacks.

By waiting for more price action to unfold near support and resistance levels, you can avoid low-quality trades.

Trade Entries

Look for bullish signals at support levels and bearish signals at resistance levels. This is the key to finding the best trades in any trading strategy.

This chart shows a trade from the MACD with inside bar trading strategy. The bullish inside bar was a result of support at an area of earlier price congestion. It had the makings of a high-quality trade.

Trade Exits

Support and resistance, even the minor ones, are effective as price targets and stops.

For day traders, the high and low of the previous trading session are important support and resistance levels. This example (retrace day trading setup ) shows that the low of the previous session was the perfect price target for this trade.

Support Resistance Essential Effective

Support and resistance are essential features of the price landscape. Do not navigate prices without them.

Online Instantly improve your trading strategy with support and resistance

Trading strategies amazon

Trading strategies amazonEncyclopedia of trading strategies amazon, forex market infomercial.

The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies is a comprehensive guide to the various financial trading systems and strategies. McCormick from Amazon. The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies. Авторы Джеффри Оуэн Кац, Донна Л. Маккормик. Баллы начисляются обладателям Ozon Status – постоянным покупателям. The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies is for traders who want to take the next step to consistently profitable trading.

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The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies and over one million other books are available for Amazon Kindle. Encyclopedia Of Trading Strategies. Encyclopedia Of Trading Strategies. Encyclopedia Of Trading Strategies The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies Amazon. it Jeffrey Owen Katz, Donna Mccormick Libri in altre lingue

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Amazon Rank. The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies is for traders who want to take the next step to consistently profitable trading. Мы будем признательны, если вы сможете выделить минутку, чтобы поделиться своими впечатлениями о Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies!

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Best automated trading strategy

Best automated trading strategySelfgrowth - Best Automated FX Trading Strategy

I would like you to know about the different automated trading strategies in Forex and which is the best automated trading system.

Trading strategies

There are many trading style and the one that I mostly used is technical indicator with charting, bars and moving average. It can be used in a combination or short and long periods. At times multiple timeframe charting can be used to determine short and long periods as well. Before I start, you should have basic knowledge about Forex trading and the different technical indicator information.

Bars or candle sticks

This is particular useful for previous bar open, close, high and low price. Most used are the recent completed Bar which is used to compare with a certain rules or formula to predict the trend of the price. You can simply compare the open and close to determine if the price is going up or down, and execute a buy trade if is goes higher then the previous high price. You can use 2 previous bar and compare the 2 different high prices. Using it to predict the next bar will establish a higher price. Many trending strategy includes previous last 3 bars to determine short term trend in your trading.

The difference between the high and low, open and close, will show the volatility and extremely useful when trading sideways. Most scalping uses this to trading between the high and low, to gain small profits but in huge quantity. Trades are more frequent with smaller profits as compare with trending trading. Some trades uses the spike where the close and open price is close to either high or low price, to predict a systematic drop in price which will tally with the spikes that happened before the actual price drop.

Periods 20 or 200

In most technical indicator such as simple moving average (SMA), commodity channel indicator (CCI), relative strength index (RSI), moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), etc uses a predefined trading periods. This is the no. of previous price bar that is used to calculate the indicator placement or oscillator. This also depends on the charting timeframe. In most cases, anything that is less then 12 hours are considered short term. Period 20 in 15 minutes chart = 5 hours, period 8 in 1 hour charts = 8 hours and period 36 in 5 minutes = 3 hours. Likewise for more then 12 hours are consider long term. Period 20 in 4 hours chart = 80 hours, period 50 in 1 hour time frame = 50 hours, period 200 in 15 minutes chart = 50 hours.

Most trading strategies use crossing over of short and long term indicator to trigger trade. Some add on to use short term indicator previous history bar to determine the up or down trend. Other add on crossing of another long term indicator to indicate buy trade and crossing of another short term indicator to indicate sell trade.

15 minutes of 4 hour chart

Some time driven strategy compares multiple timeframe to determine the short term trend and long term trend. Commons used charting are 15 minutes, 1hour and 4 hours. 1 minute and 5 minutes are too short. 1 day and 1 week are too long. Due to the opening of financial market continuously open, close and overlap each other, 8 hours to 16 hours are adequate to provide history that the currency is trending or reversing in most cases. There fore 15 minutes of 4 bars can be uses together with 4 hours of 4 bars or 1 hours of 4 bars. Support and resistance can be determined on either chart and can be used to reinforced the trading strategy.

Best Automated Trading System

There are many that say they have the best automated trading system but I am one trader that looks at trading results. High profit factor, low drawdown and high return of investment are keys factor to look out. I recommend below parameter when you are choosing your best automated trading system. In most case, please select 2 or 3 to diversity your trading profile.

Profit Factor >2

Max Draw Down <20%

Return of Investment >50%

Solid Forex strategies for capturing profits in today's volatile markets

How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange puts the world of Forex at your fingertips. Author Courtney Smith begins with an introduction to the Forex market-what it is and how it works. He then delves into six moneymaking techniques for trading Forex, including his unique Rejection Rule that doubles the profit of basic channel breakout systems. In addition to two specific methods for exiting positions at critical levels, Smith also discusses powerful risk management techniques and successful trading psychology strategies that will keep you one step ahead of the game.

Reveals the secrets of the Forex market and how to create a lifetime of income trading it

Offers advice on maximizing profits during the volatile swings that have increasingly become the norm

Other titles by Smith: Option Strategies, Third Edition, Seasonal Charts For Futures Traders, Commodity Spreads, and Profits Through Seasonal Trading

Make more from today's Forex market with How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange.

Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

Smith first explains all the basic information you need to know to get started in trading forex. He then introduces the tested, profitable techniques that will help you make money in the forex market, offering a variety of different methods to use over different time horizons—from those that look at the market from the perspective of days and weeks to those that hold positions for less than one day. Smith describes, for instance, a system that monitors the market from three different time perspectives and doesn't enter the market until all three are calling for an entry into the market.

He also details a new way to filter trades that eliminates about half of all losing transactions. And he tells how to sidestep the usual traps that drain money from your account using his method to identify short-term turning points and, more important, to identify major turning points. Smith concludes by showing you how all the techniques in the book fit together into a coordinated program for creating profits.

Throughout the book, the author stresses the two most important aspects of trading: risk management and trader psychology. How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange shows how to take risk management one step beyond and use it as an offensive weapon for enhancing profits. And perhaps, most important, it tells how to overcome the biggest block against making money in the markets: your own psychology. Whether you're a novice or a pro, says Smith, following the techniques in this book will turn forex trading into your ticket to financial freedom.

From the Back Cover

Praise for How To Make A Living Trading Foreign Exchange

"Courtney Smith has hit it out of the park with this book. Not only does he provide great insight into both the inner workings of the marketplace and original trading methodologies, but he also devotes much discussion to the often overlooked, immensely important aspects of trading such as money management, discipline, and psychology. After all, as he aptly opines, these are demons traders must slay to be successful."

—Tom Demark, Founder, Market Studies, Inc.

"I learned a long time ago if Courtney Smith writes it, I readit. Glad I did. I picked up three great insights in my first read-through."

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Turtle tradingSaturday, January 10, 2009

Original Turtle Trading Rules: Chapter 7: Tactics

Miscellaneous guidelines to cover the r est of trading the Turtle System Rules.

The famous architect Mies van der Rohe, when speaking about restraint in design, once said: God is in the details. This is also true of trading systems.

There are some important details which remain that can make a significant difference in the profitability of your trading when using the Turtle Trading Rules.

Entering Orders

As has been mentioned before, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt advised the Turtles not to use stops when placing orders. We were advised to watch the market and enter orders when the price hit our stop price.

We were also told that, in general, it was better to place limit orders instead of market orders. This is because limit orders offer a chance for better fills and less slippage than do market orders.

Any market has at all times a bid and an ask. The bid is the price that buyers are willing to buy at, and the ask is the price that sellers are willing to sell at. If at any time the bid price becomes higher than the ask price, trading takes place. A market order will always fill at the bid or ask when there is sufficient volume, and sometimes at a worse price for larger orders.

Typically, there is a certain amount of relatively random price movement that occurs, which is sometimes known as the bounce. The idea behind using limit orders is to place your order at the lower end of the bounce, instead of simply placing a market order. A limit order will not move the market if it is a small order, and it will almost always move it less if it is a larger order.

It takes some skill to be able to determine the best price for a limit order, but with practice, you should be able to get better fills using limit orders placed near the market than with market orders.

Fast Markets

At times, the market moves very quickly through the order prices, and if you place a limit order it simply wont get filled. During fast market conditions, a market can move thousands of dollars per contract in just a few minutes.

During these times, the Turtles were advised not to panic, and to wait for the market to trade and stabilize before placing their orders.

Most beginning traders find this hard to do. They panic and place market orders. Invariably they do this at the worst possible time, and frequently end up trading on the high or low of the day, at the worst possible price.

In a fast market, liquidity temporarily dries up. In the case of a rising fast market, sellers stop selling and hold out for a higher price, and they will not re-commence selling until after the price stops moving up. In this scenario, the asks rise considerably, and the spread between bid and ask widens.

Buyers are now forced to pay much higher prices as sellers continue raising their asks, and the price eventually moves so far and so fast that new sellers come into the market, causing the price to stabilize, and often to quickly reverse and collapse partway back.

Market orders placed into a fast market usually end up getting filled at the highest price of the run-up, right at the point where the market begins to stabilize as new sellers come in.

As Turtles, we waited until some indication of at least a temporary price reversal before placing our orders, and this often resulted in much better fills than would have been achieved with a market order. If the market stabilized at a point which was past our stop price, then we would get out of the market, but we would do so without panicking.

Simultaneous Entry Signals

Many days as traders there was little market movement, and little for us to do besides monitor existing positions. We might go for days without placing a single order. Other days would be moderately busy, with signals occurring intermittently over the stretch of a few hours. In that case, we would simply take the trades as they came, until they reached the position limits for those markets.

Then there were days when it seemed like everything was happening at once, and we would go from no positions, to loaded, in a day or two. Often, this frantic pace was intensified by multiple signals in correlated markets.

This was especially true when the markets gapped open through the entry signals. You might have a gap opening entry signal in Crude Oil, Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas all on the same day. With futures contracts, it was also extremely common for many different months of the same market to signal at the same time.

Buy Strength Sell Weakness

If the signals came all at once, we always bought the strongest markets and sold short the weakest markets in a group.

We would also only enter one unit in a single market at the same time. For instance, instead of buying February, March and April Heating Oil at the same time, we would pick the one contract month that was the strongest, and that had sufficient volume and liquidity.

This is very important! Within a correlated group, the best long positions are the strongest markets (which almost always outperform the weaker markets in the same group). Conversely, the biggest winning trades to the short side come from the weakest markets within a correlated group.

As Turtles, we used various measures to determine strength and weakness. The simplest and most common way was to simply look at the charts and figure out which one looked stronger (or weaker) by visual examination.

Some would determine how many N the price had advanced since the breakout, and buy the market that had moved the most (in terms of N).

Others would subtract the price 3 months ago from the current price and then divide by the current N to normalize across markets. The strongest markets had the highest values; the weakest markets the lowest.

Any of these approaches work well. The important thing is to have long positions in the strongest markets and short positions in the weakest markets.

Rolling Over Expiring Contracts

When futures contracts expire, there are two major factors that need to be considered before rolling over into a new contract.

First, there are many instances when the near months trend well, but the more distant contracts fail to display the same level of price movement. So dont roll into a new contract unless its price action would have resulted in an existing position.

Second, contracts should be rolled before the volume and open interest in the expiring contract decline too much. How much is too much depends on the unit size. As a general rule, the Turtles rolled existing positions into the new contract month a few weeks before expiration, unless the (currently held) near month was performing significantly better than farther out contract months.

That concludes the Complete Turtle Trading System rules. As you are probably thinking, they are not very complicated.

But knowing these rules is not enough to make you rich. You have to be able to follow them.

Remember what Richard Dennis said: I always say that you could publish my trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught our people. What they couldnt do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad. From Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager.

Perhaps the best evidence that this is true is the performance of the Turtles themselves; many of them did not make money. This was not because the rules didnt work; it was because they could not and did not follow the rules. By virtue of this same fact, few who read this document will be successful trading the Turtle Trading Rules. Again; this is not because the rules dont work. It is because the reader simply wont have the confidence to follow them.

The Turtle rules are very difficult to follow because they depend on capturing relatively infrequent large trends. As a result, many months can pass between winning periods; at times even a year or two. During these periods it is easy to come up with reasons to doubt the system, and to stop following the rules:

What if the rules dont work anymore? What if the markets have changed?

What if there is something important missing from the rules?

How can I be really sure that this works?

The Sheps Trading Rule - You can break the rules and get awaywith it. Eventually, the rules break you for not respecting them. From Zen in the Markets, by Edward A. Toppel

One member of the first Turtles class, who was fired from the program before the end of the first year, suspected early on that information had been intentionally withheld from the group, and eventually became convinced that there were hidden secrets which Rich would not reveal. This particular trader could not face up to the simple fact that his poor performance was due to his own doubts and insecurities, which resulted in his inability to follow the rules.

Another problem is the tendency to want to change the rules. Many of the Turtles, in an effort to reduce the risk of trading the system, changed the rules in subtle ways which sometimes had the opposite of the desired effect.

An example: Failing to enter positions as quickly as the rules specify (1 unit every ½ N). While this may seem like a more conservative approach, the reality could be that, for the type of entry system the Turtles used, adding to positions slowly might increase the chance that a retracement would hit the exit stops—resulting in losses—whereas a faster approach might allow the position to weather the retracement without the stops being hit. This subtle change could have a major impact on the profitability of the system during certain market conditions.

In order to build the level of confidence you will need to follow a trading systems rules, whether it is the Turtle System, something similar, or a completely different system, it is imperative that you personally conduct research using historical trading data. It is not enough to hear from others that a system works; it is not enough to read the summary results from research conducted by others. You must do it yourself.

Get your hands dirty and get directly involved in the research. Dig into the trades, look at the daily equity logs, get very familiar with the way the system trades, and with the extent and frequency of the losses.

It is much easier to weather an 8 month losing period if you know that there have been many periods of equivalent length in the last 20 years. It will be much easier to add to positions quickly if you know that adding quickly is a key part of the profitability of the system.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Original Turtle Trading Rules: Chapter 3: Position Sizing

The Turtles used a volatility-based constant percentage risk position sizing algorithm.

Position sizing is one of the most important but least understood components of any trading system.

The Turtles used a position sizing algorithm that was very advanced for its day, because it normalized the dollar volatility of a position by adjusting the position size based on the dollar volatility of the market. This meant that a given position would tend to move up or down in a given day about the same amount in dollar terms (when compared to positions in other markets), irrespective of the underlying volatility of the particular market.

This is true because positions in markets that moved up and down a large amount per contract would have an offsetting smaller number of contracts than positions in markets that had lower volatility.

This volatility normalization is very important because it means that different trades in different markets tend to have the same chance for a particular dollar loss or a particular dollar gain. This increased the effectiveness of the diversification of trading across many markets.

Even if the volatility of a given market was lower, any significant trend would result in a sizeable win because the Turtles would have held more contracts of that lower volatility commodity.

Volatility The Meaning of N

The Turtles used a concept that Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt called N to represent the underlying volatility of a particular market.

N is simply the 20-day exponential moving average of the True Range, which is now more commonly known as the ATR. Conceptually, N represents the average range in price movement that a particular market makes in a single day, accounting for opening gaps. N was measured in the same points as the underlying contract.

To compute the daily true range:

True Range = Maximum (H-L, H-PDC, PDC-L)

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Original Turtle Trading Rules: Chapter 6: Exits

The Turtles used breakout based exits for profitable positions.

There is another old saying: you can never go broke taking a profit. The Turtles would not agree with this statement. Getting out of winning positions too early, i. e. taking a profit too early, is one of the most common mistakes when trading trend following systems.

Prices never go straight up; therefore it is necessary to let the prices go against you if you are going to ride a trend. Early in a trend this can often mean watching decent profits of 10% to 30% fade to a small loss. In the middle of a trend, it might mean watching a profit of 80% to 100% drop by 30% to 40%. The temptation to lighten the position to lock in profits can be very great.

The Turtles knew that where you took a profit could make the difference between winning and losing.

The Turtle System enters on breakouts. Most breakouts do not result in trends. This means that most of the trades that the Turtles made resulted in losses. If the winning trades did not earn enough on average to offset these losses, the Turtles would have lost money. Every profitable trading system has a different optimal exit point.

Consider the Turtle System; if you exit winning positions at a 1 N profit while you exited losing positions at a 2 N loss you would need twice as many winners to offset the losses from the losing trades.

There is a complex relationship between the components of a trading system. This means that you cant consider the proper exit for a profitable position without considering the entry, money management and other factors.

The proper exit for winning positions is one of the most important aspects of trading, and the least appreciated. Yet it can make the difference between winning and losing.

Tur t l e Ex i t s

The System 1 exit was a 10 day low for long positions and a 10 day high for short positions. All the Units in the position would be exited if the price went against the position for a 10 day breakout.

The System 2 exit was a 20 day low for long positions and a 20 day high for short positions. All the Units in the position would be exited if the price went against the position for a 20 day breakout.

As with entries, the Turtles did not typically place exit stop orders, but instead watched the price during the day, and started to phone in exit orders as soon as the price traded through the exit breakout price.

These are Difficult Exits

For most traders, the Turtle System Exits were probably the single most difficult part of the Turtle System Rules. Waiting for a 10 or 20 day new low can often mean watching 20%, 40% even 100% of significant profits evaporate.

There is a very strong tendency to want to exit earlier. It requires great discipline to watch your profits evaporate in order to hold onto your positions for the really big move. The ability to maintain discipline and stick to the rules during large winning trades is the hallmark of the experienced successful trader.

Original Turtle Trading Rules: Foreword

Free Rules? Are you kidding?

Why are some of the Original Turtles giving away Rules for which

others have charged thousands of dollars? Are these the actual Original Turtle Trading System rules?

You probably asked yourself the same questions: Why would anyone give away the rules to the original Turtle Trading System? How can I be sure that these are the original Turtle Trading System rules as taught by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt? The answer to these questions lies in the origin of this project.

The Origin of the Free Rules Project

This project had its seed in various discussions among a few of the original Turtles, Richard Dennis, and others regarding the sale of the Turtle Trading System rules by a former turtle, and subsequently, on a website by a non-trader. It culminated in this document, which discloses the Original Turtle Trading Rules in their entirety, free of charge.

Why? Because many of us believed that we owed an obligationto Richard Dennis not to reveal the rules, even after our contractual 10 year secrecy pact ended in late 1993. For this reason, we did not look kindly upon the sale of those rules by a former turtle.

Further, we saw the sale on the web site as crass and opportunistic intellectual property theft, an act that, while technically not illegal, was certainly not honorable.

At the same time, having seen others try to follow these rules first-hand, I realized it was unlikely that their publication would result in very many people actually learning to trade like the Turtles. In fact, I knew that most of those who spent thousands to learn these heretofore secret rules would end up disappointed, for three reasons:

• The rules wouldnt be clear, since the people selling them didnt know how to trade.

• Even if they were clearly presented, the buyers probably wouldnt be able to follow the rules.

• Most of the Turtles are now trading even better rules.

The Ugly Truth about the System Sellers

Ive been trading and hanging around trading circles since high school. One of the sad realities of the trading industry, and the futures trading industry in particular, is that there are far more people making money selling others systems and ways to make money trading, than there are people actually making money trading.

I wont go into specifics here, but those of us who actually trade for a living know the names of many famous traders who are famous as traders, but that dont make money as traders. They make money selling new trading systems, seminars, home study courses, etc. Most of these so called experts cant trade and dont trade the systems that they sell.

Yes, this is also true of those selling the Turtle Trading Rules.

Since we offer the rules here for free we don't see why anyone would pay for these rules anymore but that doesn't stop people from trying to sell them.

Before taking any advice, buying any courses offering to teach you how to trade, or purchasing a system, investigate the sellers very thoroughly. There are many unscrupulous vendors who are not what they appear. Before placing an order, search the internet and find out what previous purchasers thought of the course, seminar, or trading system.

Rules You Wont Follow Dont Matter

What TurtleTrader and the Former Turtle don't tell you is that trading rules are only a small part of successful trading. The most important aspects of successful trading are confidence, consistency, and discipline.

As famous trader and father of the Turtles, Richard Dennis said: I always say that you could publish my rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught our people. What they couldnt do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad. from Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager.

Rules that you cant or wont follow will not do you any good.

The Turtles had a lot of reasons to be confident in the rules they were given. For the most part, we had the confidence to follow them even during losing periods. Those who didnt consistently

follow the rules didnt make money and were dropped from the program.

Traders who want to be successful will figure out a way to gain enough confidence in their own rules of trading to be able to apply them consistently.

As original Turtles, we had it easy. We were given rules by some of the worlds most successful and famous traders, Richard Dennis and his trading partner Bill Eckhardt. They taught us the rules and the reasons why we could trust those rules. Then we were placed into an open office with ten other traders who had been taught those same rules. In some respects it was easier to follow the rules than to not follow the rules.

On the whole, we had the confidence and the discipline to consistently apply the rules we were given. This was the secret of our success as traders.

Those who failed to follow the rules invariably failed as Turtles. Some of them decided they could make more money selling the Turtle rules than they did as Turtles.

The Genesis of the Project

Like many of the other Turtles, it always bothered me that some were making money off the work of Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt without their consent; that these secret-sellers had used the success of the Turtles to dupe others into spending thousands of dollars on products that were not what they appeared.

I had often thought that a great way to deal with this problem would be to give the Turtle Trading Rules away for free. Since others had already let the cat out of the bag, and since anyone who really wanted the rules could already get them by paying, it wouldnt violate my sense of fair play to reveal them.

So that is what we have done. with a slight twist.

While the rules are free, we respectfully ask that those who gain benefit from the rules and find them valuable send a donation supporting a charity in honor of Richard Dennis, Bill Eckhardt and the original Turtles. You can find a copy of the charities favored by the Turtles on the new web site: originalturtles.

-Curtis Faith, an Original Turtle - OriginalTurtles

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Original Turtle Trading Rules: Chapter 1: A Complete Trading System

The Turtle Trading System was a Complete Trading System, one that covered every aspect of trading, and left virtually no decision to the subjective whims of the trader.

Most successful traders use a mechanical trading system. This is no coincidence.

A good mechanical trading system automates the entire process of trading. The system provides answers for each of the decisions a trader must make while trading. The system makes it easier for a trader to trade consistently because there is a set of rules which specifically define exactly what should be done. The mechanics of trading are not left up to the judgment of the trader.

If you know that your system makes money over the long run, it is easier to take the signals and trade according to the system during periods of losses. If you are relying on your own judgment during trading, you may find that you are fearful just when you should be bold, and courageous when you should be cautious.

If you have a mechanical trading system that works, and you follow it consistently, your trading will be consistent despite the inner emotional struggles that might come from a long series of losses, or a large profit. The confidence, consistency, and discipline afforded by a thoroughly tested mechanical system are the key to many of the most profitable traders success.

The Turtle Trading System was a Complete Trading System. Its rules covered every aspect of trading, and left no decisions to the subjective whims of the trader. It had every component of a Complete Trading System.

The Components of a Complete System

A Complete Trading System covers each of the decisions required for successful trading:

Markets - What to buy or sell

Position Sizing - How much to buy or sell

Entries - When to buy or sell

Stops - When to get out of a losing position

Exits - When to get out of a winning position

Tactics - How to buy or sell

Markets What to buy or sell

The first decision is what to buy and sell, or essentially, what markets to trade. If you trade too few markets you greatly reduce your chances of getting aboard a trend. At the same time, you dont want to trade markets that have too low a trading volume, or that dont trend well.

Position Sizing How much to buy or sell

The decision about how much to buy or sell is absolutely fundamental, and yet is often glossed over or handled improperly by most traders.

How much to buy or sell affects both diversification and money management. Diversification is an attempt to spread risk across many instruments, and to increase the opportunity for profit by increasing the opportunities for catching successful trades. Proper diversification requires making similar, if not identical bets on many different instruments. Money management is really about controlling risk by not betting so much that you run out of money before the good trends come.

How much to buy or sell is the single most important aspect of trading. Most beginning traders risk far too much on each trade, and greatly increase their chances of going bust, even if they have an otherwise valid trading style.

Entries When to buy or sell

The decision of when to buy or sell is often called the entry decision. Automated systems generate entry signals which define the exact price and market conditions to enter the market, whether by buying or selling.

Stops When to get out of a losing position

Traders who do not cut their losses will not be successful in the long term. The most important thing about cutting your losses is to predefine the point where you will get out before you enter a position.

Exits When to get out of a winning position

Many trading systems that are sold as complete trading systems do not specifically address the exit of winning positions. Yet the question of when to get out of a winning position is crucial to the profitability of the system. Any trading system that does not address the exit of winning positions is not a Complete Trading System.

Tactics How to buy or sell

Once a signal has been generated, tactical considerations regarding the mechanics of execution become important. This is especially true for larger accounts, where the entry and exit of positions can result in significant adverse price movement, or market impact.

Using a mechanical system is the best way to consistently make money trading. If you know that your system makes money over the long run, it is easier to take the signals and follow the system during periods of losses. If you rely on your own judgment, during trading you may find that you are fearful just when you should be courageous, or courageous when you should be fearful.

If you have a profitable mechanical trading system, and you follow it religiously, then your trading will be profitable, and the system will help you survive the emotional struggles that inevitably result from a long series of losses, or large profits.

The trading system that was used by the Turtles was a Complete Trading System. This was a major factor in our success. Our system made it easier to trade consistently, and successfully, because it did not leave important decisions to the discretion of the trader.

Turtle Trading

In 1983, commodities trader Richard Dennis set out to show that anybody could trade profitably provided they were taught some simple rules.

His partner, William Eckhardt, disagreed and a wager was born.

(If this sounds familiar, it should be. It forms the basis of the plot to John Landis 1983 comedy, Trading Places.)

Dennis placed classified ads in the financial press soliciting trainee traders no experience required. Successful applicants were subsequently taught some basic rules about risk management and trend-following.

These aspirant traders were called turtles after Dennis experience of seeing a Singaporean turtle farm, and his belief that successful traders could be grown just like those turtles.

21 men and two women were hired over the next two years in two separate programmes. Long story short, many of the turtles went on to become multi - millionaires.

Not only that, but some of the turtles went on to join the ranks of the most successful traders in history.

Richard Dennis believed that a successful trading philosophy could be taught to anybody provided they kept to the rules. Dennis himself borrowed $400 from his father and by the early 1980s had amassed a fortune of $200 million.

As his father famously observed, Lets just say Richie ran that $400 up pretty good.

The basic turtle rules involved entering trades on the basis of markets breaking out from previously established ranges. If a given futures market traded at a new 20-day high, then it should be bought. If it traded at a new 20-day low, it should be sold. Stop losses were included for hedging downside risk. Risk per transaction was also carefully controlled.

The turtles were allowed to trade a variety of US futures markets, including interest rates, currencies, energies, metals and commodities (hard and soft). Futures markets were favoured due to their depth and liquidity.

Whereas most fund managers try and predict the future, the turtles simply paid attention to the market price. For as long as price trends persisted and they werent stopped out, they would add to their positions (subject to obeying the rules about appropriate position sizing).

If the turtles lost money, they would have to reduce their bet size until theyd brought their account back into the black.

There are really only two ways of looking at financial markets. One of them is fundamental: to take into consideration macro-economic themes, the economy, interest rates, inflation. The other method is technical: what are prices doing?

Richard Dennis recognised that price is the only metric really worth trusting everything else is a matter of opinion. This trading strategy today goes by the name systematic trend-following.

Unlike many approaches to trading, it requires no special understanding of any given market just a healthy respect for the price action.

And there are two specific reasons why we look favourably on systematic trend-following funds.

One is that they have a long history of generating attractive returns.

The second is that whatever their future return streams, those returns can be confidently expected to come with roughly zero correlation to the stock market.

This makes them the perfect investment vehicle to sit within a properly diversified portfolio alongside the likes of stocks, high quality bonds, and real assets.

Until next time,

Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Original Turtle Trading Rules: Chapter 4: Entries

The Turtles used two related system entries, each based on Donchians channel breakout system.

The typical trader thinks mostly in terms of the entry signals when thinking about a particular trading system. They believe that the entry is the most important aspect of any trading system.

They might be very surprised to find that the Turtles used a very simple entry system based on the Channel Breakout systems taught by Richard Donchian.

The Turtles were given rules for two different but related breakout systems we called System 1 and System 2. We were given full discretion to allocate as much of our equity to either system as we wanted. Some of us chose to trade all our equity using System 2, some chose to use a 50% System 1, 50% System 2 split, while others chose different mixes.

System 1 A shorter-term system based on a 20-day breakout

System 2 A simpler long-term system based on a 55-day breakout.

A breakout is defined as the price exceeding the high or low of a particular number of days. Thus a 20-day breakout would be defined as exceeding the high or low of the preceding 20 days.

Turtles always traded at the breakout when it was exceeded during the day, and did not wait until the daily close or the open of the following day. In the case of opening gaps, the Turtles would enter positions on the open if a market opened through the price of the breakout.

System 1 Entry - Turtles entered positions when the price exceeded by a single tick the high or low of the preceding 20 days. If the price exceeded the 20-day high, then the Turtles would buy one Unit to initiate a long position in the corresponding commodity. If the price dropped one tick below the low of the last 20-days, the Turtles would sell one Unit to initiate a short position.

System 1 breakout entry signals would be ignored if the last breakout would have resulted in a winning trade. NOTE: For the purposes of this test, the last breakout was considered the last breakout in the particular commodity irrespective of whether or not that particular breakout was actually taken, or was skipped because of this rule. This breakout would be considered a losing breakout if the price subsequent to the date of the breakout moved 2N against the position before a profitable 10-day exit occurred.

The direction of the last breakout was irrelevant to this rule. Thus, a losing long breakout or a losing short breakout would enable the subsequent new breakout to be taken as a valid entry, regardless of its direction (long or short).

However, in the event that a System 1 entry breakout was skipped because the previous trade had been a winner, an entry would be made at the 55-day breakout to avoid missing major moves. This 55-day breakout was considered the Failsafe Breakout point.

At any given point, if you were out of the market, there would always be some price which would trigger a short entry and another different and higher price which would trigger a long entry. If the last breakout was a loser, then the entry signal would be closer to the current price (i. e. the 20 day breakout), than if it had been a winner, in which case the entry signal would likely be farther away, at the 55 day breakout.

System 2 Entry - Entered when the price exceeded by a single tick the high or low of the preceding 55 days. If the price exceeded the 55 day high, then the Turtles would buy one Unit to initiate a long position in the corresponding commodity. If the price dropped one tick below the low of the last 55 days, the Turtles would sell one Unit to initiate a short position.

All breakouts for System 2 would be taken whether the previous breakout had been a winner or not.

Adding Units

Turtles entered single Unit long positions at the breakouts and added to those positions at ½ N intervals following their initial entry. This ½ N interval was based on the actual fill price of the previous order. So if an initial breakout order slipped by ½ N, then the new order would be 1 full N past the breakout to account for the ½ N slippage, plus the normal ½ N unit add interval.

This would continue right up to the maximum permitted number of units. If the market moved quickly enough it was possible to add the maximum four Units in a single day.

55 day breakout = 310

First Unit added 310.00

Fourth Unit 312.50 + ½ 2.50 or 313.75

55 day breakout = 28.30

First Unit added 28.30

Second Unit 28.30 + ½ 1.20 or 28.90

Third Unit 28.90 + ½ 1.20 or 29.50

Fourth Unit 29.50 + ½ 1.20 or 30.10

The Turtles with the best trading records consistently applied the entry rules. The Turtles with the worst records, and all those who were dropped from the program, failed to consistently enter positions when the rules indicated.

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Developing atrading plan

Developing atrading planDeveloping a Trading Plan

A trading plan is a set of rules that covers various aspects of your trading life. Traders with a plan will trade better than those without. The old saying in business “Fail to plan and you plan to fail” applies here. The traders with a plan can enter into the markets with better ideas of their own personal psychology, style, strategy and goals. The plan allows them to monitor their performance, evaluate their progress, and trade more objectively with less emotion and stress. It provides a set of rules to keep them focused in the right direction, which is to be consistently profitable . A good plan strictly adhered to will help minimize losses and stay in the game longer.

A trading plan facilitates your decision-making by helping reduce the influence of your emotions from the equation so that you can trade more efficiently. It helps you become more like a cool and calculated trading robot (your trading decisions and actions calibrated to the “code” of the plan) instead of an egoistic, emotional, and stressed trader flying by the seat of his pants, making faulty, irrational judgments in the heat of the moment. If you trade with an automated system or EA, which incorporates much of your plan within its own customized algorithms, then you probably do not need to follow a trading plan as much as code it within the EA. A trading plan is a way for manual traders to become more like highly sophisticated, adaptable trading machines; and with time and experience, perhaps even better than any trading robot because of the greater computing power and adaptability of a human brain.

It is important to differentiate a trading plan from a strategy. It is easy to confuse the two.

A strategy covers things like entry, exit. managing the trade, money management.

A trading plan is like your business plan, covering your mindset, strategy, trading routine, goals, rewards, and emergency actions. It keeps you focused.

A good trading plan should be solid and fluid at the same time: it should be written in stone while you are trading, but subject to re-evaluation after the market has closed. It should evolve and change with the changing market conditions as well as to the new ideas, skills and knowledge of the developing trader.

What are the primary Features of a Trading Plan?

Trading plans need to be simple as it makes it easier to follow and simple approaches have proven to work over time. Here are five important features that every plan must have.

Trading Mindset

Trading mindset represents the self-assessment of the trader regarding his particular mental attitude towards trading, his emotions during trading, his space and time for trading, and his strengths and weaknesses. Let us break these down into questions, which we will later follow with an example.


Why do I want to be a trader (motive, talents)?

What is my trading style (fundamental/technical, day/swing/position )?

What are my strengths and weaknesses? (list, specify how to maximize former, minimize latter)

Am I in the right frame of mind (are you calm and relaxed or stressed, tired, emotional)?

How much time do I expect to devote to trading, developing my system and conducting trade research?

Example Answer

I want to be a trader in order to make money to supplement my work income. This objective is important for me because I want to take control over my personal finances. I believe I can become a successful trader because I am self-confident, creative and an excellent researcher.

I am a technical trader and my style is day trading and scalping. I only have 2 hours to devote to trading each day, and in that window of time I hope to be in out and within 0-4 trades, depending on the market conditions and technical set-ups that I am watching. I will only trade on days that I am rested, relaxed, and not distracted by work, family or other events in my life. I have an extra hour in the day (in the evenings when kids are in bed) to devote to trade review and system research and analysis.

My primary strength is that I am self-confident with a good eye for the market. I can see a situation developing on a short time frame and exploit it. My primary weakness is that I become emotionally attached to the trade (or trade direction) when I have to be more adherent to the system and its exit rules. In order to handle this weakness, I will follow the rules of the exit strategy in a strict fashion, or I will work with an exit EA or script that handles more robotically the exit conditions.

Trading Goals

There are many reasons for becoming a trader, and making money is common for all, but it is important to know your financial targets. Setting goals is an important part because it provides you with a beacon to work towards, the ability to track your progress and the motivation to work towards.

What is my trading goal? Why do you expect to achieve it?

What are my income targets (per week, month, year)?

How will I know when my plan is working or not?

Example Answer

My trading goal is to be consistently profitable every week, month and year. I am expecting to achieve at least 5% growth on my account equity per month with less than 20% intermonth draw down.

I can achieve this goal because my strategy is well developed and researched: it has been back and forward tested over the last 4 years to be consistently profitable. The edge factor is the high probability of winning trades.

If I can remain true to the strategy and trading plan, my goal is achievable. If, despite my rigorous adherence to the strategy and plan, I do not meet my goals, I need to reevaluate the system, the markets, and my relationship to both. If I achieve my goal for two consecutive months, I plan to reward myself by taking a holiday with my family.

Trading Risk and Money Management

Risk management focuses on the risk of each trade, the risk-reward ratio, winning probability, and position sizing. Depending on your account, the pair and the risk you accept per trade, you should be able to calculate the exact size of the position you should use for the trade. Money management, on the other hand, focuses on initial lot sizing in relation to account size, and how it increases and decreases as the account grows or falls.


What is my attitude towards risk?

What is my overall market risk ?

What is my stop loss?

What is my strategy risk that is, the trade accuracy combined with the risk-reward ratio per trade?

What is my optimal lot size, and maximum risk per trade?

What money management approach will I use?

What will I do in the event of a large draw down?

What is my broker and hardware risk?

Note: a good calculator to help you determine your position sizing relative to your ideal percentage risk per trade can be found here: Position size calculator

Example Answer

I consider myself to be a cautious trader. I am not into day trading because I am more aggressive. Instead, I fear the potential risk of market exposure ; the longer I am in the market the greater something will go wrong. I prefer instead to be in and out of the market, capture my profits and go to bed soundly without fear of my trade being vulnerable to a market reversal I am not there to deal with.

Since I will be risking 50 pip stop loss for every potential 25 pip profit target, my risk/reward ratio is 1:2. It is not the best risk reward ratio but I expect to come out ahead with the 75% probability of a winning trade, as determined by backtesting.

I aim to risk only 1% of my account on any given trade. Since I am going to trade with $1000 with a 50 pip stop on EUR/USD, I can trade with 2 micro lots at a time (2 micro loss of 50 pips = -$10). My money management approach is fixed fractional: I will trade 0.01 lots per $500, increasing it or decreasing it for every $500 up or down in my account. I will be starting out with $1000 (a sum I can afford to lose), and my starting lot size will be 0.02, as per my money management rule. I will lock in profits with a trailing stop that protects 50% of the profits after 15 pip move in profit. I will stop trading in a day if 5% of my account has been lost. In the event of a 30% draw down, in any given period, I will stop trading for the month and review my system and risk/money management approach.

My main broker is Forex /UK; I do not have a secondary broker because I do not need one. In the event my PC crashes, I have a backup, mirrored PC that I can trade from. My MT4 platform is free, my two pcs have been paid for, so the only expenses I incur are electricity and brokerage transaction costs.

Trading Strategy

The core of the plan is the strategy, which consists of the entry and exit rules. Most strategies fall within three groups: trends /breakouts, retracements, and reversals. A setup is the set of characteristics that help you identify the right conditions for a trade, and a signal is a specific condition that is met that triggers your trade. Both entries and exits can have setups and signals. We will be looking at both.

Entry Rules

What are your setups for entry?

How will you find your setup?

Which signals will trigger your entry?

Exit Rules

What are my setups for exit?

What signals will trigger your exit?

What are the profit targets (and profit protection mechanisms)?

What are the stop losses and adjustable stops to limit loss?

Example Answer

Entry Rules

My strategy is a trend following strategy that I will be looking to pick up trades in the direction of the trend on small retracements/pullbacks. I will do this through what is called a Moving Average Bounce.

My entry setup will seek to identify the larger trend of EUR/USD via the 100 and 200 period moving average of the H1 chart. The trend is UP/DOWN if EUR/USD price is above/below both the 100 and 200 moving average of the H1. Once trend direction has been established, I will be awaiting a secondary setup on 100 and 200 period moving average of the M5 chart. If EUR/USD retraces back to the 100 MA of M5, the retracement condition has been met. The specific signal: buy /sell if EUR/USD bounces upwards/downwards from the 100 MA of M5.

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When running a calendar spread with puts, you’re selling and buying a put with the same strike price, but the put you buy will have a later expiration date than the put you sell.

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Trading strategy for usdjpy

Trading strategy for usdjpyGBP/USD Forex Trading Strategy »

USD/JPY Forex Trading Strategy

This article will cover the following

Overview of the US economy

Overview of Japans economy

Properties of the USD/JPY cross

Average spread, volatility, correlation to other pairs

Trading strategies

and more

According to the Triennial Central Bank Survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the currency composition of global Forex trading has been notably shifted during the period 2010-2013. The US dollar remains the world’s major reserve currency, which stood on one side of 87% of all trades in the Forex market as of April 2013. Among other major currencies, the Japanese yen saw the most considerable surge in trading activity, or 63% since the survey conducted in 2010. The yen has significantly increased its share in global currency trading to 23% as of April 2013, which ranked it 3rd (following the US dollar and the euro). At the same time, USD/JPY accounted for 18.3% of the total turnover in April 2013, boosting its positions from a 14.3-percent share in 2010, which ranked the pair 2nd (following the EUR/USD cross).

Economy of the United States and major economic indicators

The United States is the world’s largest economic power with a nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the amount of $16.8 trillion in 2013. It represents almost 25% of the global nominal GDP. It is also the world’s second-largest trading nation, following China.

The US economy is primarily service-oriented, as almost 80% of the GDP is produced by sectors such as real estate, transportation, financial services, other business services and health care.

The country is the second largest manufacturer in the world with an industrial production of $2.43 trillion during 2013, or larger than the output of Germany, France, India and Brazil combined. Major industries are petroleum, steel, automobile production, aerospace, construction and agricultural machinery, chemicals, electronics, telecommunications.

Moreover, as of 2013 the United States is the third-largest producer of oil (8 453 000 barrels per day, or 9.97% of the global total oil production) and the largest natural gas producer (66.5 billion cubic feet per day).

Taking into account the sheer size of the US economy and its pillars of strength, one can clearly understand the effect of economic data from those sectors on the US dollar, and in turn on the global Forex market. After all, the greenback stands on one side of 87% of all trades, according to the BIS.

Economic indicators

Here we provide a list of macroeconomic indicators, which tend to cause the largest influence on the United States dollar on the global markets.

– Trade Balance

– ISM Non-manufacturing

– ISM Manufacturing

– Federal Reserve Minutes

– Consumer Confidence (released by the Conference Board research group and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan)

– Retail Sales

– Industrial Production

More details on these indicators you can find in our article Profile of United States dollar.

Economy of Japan and major economic indicators

Japan is the third largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of 4.9 trillion USD in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund, while in terms of purchasing power parity it is the fourth largest economy (with a GDP of 4.7 trillion USD in 2013).

The country is the third largest automobile manufacturer worldwide, with annualized production of 9.9 million vehicles in 2012. Japan was the largest car manufacturer in 2000, but its market share dropped recently, because of the intense competition by countries such as South Korea and China. The nation’s electronics industry is the largest in the world, despite that Japanese companies have recently been faced with fierce competition by producers from South Korea and Taiwan.

At present Japanese highly diversified manufacturing industry has focused mainly on high-tech and precision products, such as Hybrid vehicles, optical instruments and robotics, with the sector accounting for 18% of the GDP in 2012 and 24% of the GDP in 2013.

Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world for a 22nd consecutive year as of 2013, running a considerable net international investment surplus. Japan is also the second largest sovereign state in the world by global private financial assets, payable in currency, stocks and bonds in 2013 (13.991 billion EUR, following the United States).

As the country is in possession of insufficient natural resources to support its expanding economy and huge population, its exported goods are engineering-oriented and research and development-led, while its imports consist mainly of raw materials and petroleum.

Economic indicators

Here we provide a list of macroeconomic indicators, which tend to cause the largest influence on Japans yen on the global markets.

Gross Domestic Product

Current Account

Tankan survey

Industrial Production

Machine Orders


More details on these indicators you can find in our article Profile of Japans yen .

Specific features of USD/JPY

After over 30 years of unprecedented economic growth, at one point during the 1980s, there was conjecture that Japans yen would join the US dollar as one of the global reserve currencies. However, the prolonged economic decline, that followed, has put an end to this supposition. In the early 1990s the bullish sentiment in Japans stock and real estate markets came to an end, which triggered a sudden economic slowdown and over two decades of deflationary processes. During this period the Japanese government has been seeking to revitalize economy and return GDP growth to the formerly seen robust rates. Despite that this objective has not been accomplished completely, Japan has claimed its place among the most powerful countries economically in the world.

Japan is considered as a proxy for Asian economic strength, having the second largest GDP on the continent. As Japanese capital markets are the most developed, in the past the country was the primary destination for foreign capital. Also, due to intense trade flows between Japan and other Asian countries, any economic or political disturbances in Japan have their immediate reflection upon other Asian economies. At the same time, any disturbances in any of Japan’s Asian partners can influence Japanese economy and respectively, the exchange rate of the USD/JPY pair.

Yen crosses show a tendency to become quite active near the end of Japan’s fiscal year (March 31st), as export-oriented companies repatriate their assets, denominated in US dollars. This, to a large extent, matters to banking institutions, as they have to reestablish their balance sheets in order to meet requirements, imposed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Banks are obligated to mark to market their security positions.

USD/JPY usually features tight bid-ask spreads and high liquidity, which makes it a suitable instrument to trade for beginners. The pair is traded in massive volumes during the Asian session .

As a result of the above mentioned period of suppressed economic growth the Bank of Japan has been keeping its benchmark interest rate at very low levels in order to boost economic activity. Because borrowing costs in Japan have been low for a prolonged period of time, the yen has lured the attention of carry traders. In periods of low volatility in the global financial markets, traders consider the yen carry trade as an excellent opportunity to profit from. However, in times of high market volatility, yen carry trades tend to lose their popularity. A trader, interested in taking positions in USD/JPY, needs to research how popular the carry trade currently is among hedge funds and other large market players. When there is a boom in carry trades, the result is selling pressure and respectively, depreciation of the Japanese yen (appreciation of the USD/JPY pair). When yen carry trades lose their popularity, traders reverse their positions, thus, buying the Japanese currency. This buying pressure contributes to the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of the USD/JPY cross, respectively.

Last but not least, shares of Japanese banking corporations are of certain interest to traders, operating in the Forex market. The reason for this is probably the fact that the severity of the economic crisis, experienced by the country, was very much related with non-performing loans of Japanese banks. Any prospects of default, released weaker earnings reports and other disappointing data by these banks may imply further deterioration of economic conditions. This way movements in shares of domestic banks may lead movements in the Japanese yen.

Properties of the USD/JPY cross

Average spread

Depending on the Forex broker used, the spread can be fixed, floating, or both. For the purpose of this article, we have chosen the average spreads provided by 10 brokers, namely Saxo Bank, Dukascopy, Alpari UK, XM, Forex, FxPro, Markets, eToro, FXCM and Iron FX, and aggregated all the spread data provided to a single average spread, in the USD/JPY case 1.52 pips.

Relative performance against other pairs

We conducted a series of calculations to gauge the performance of the USD/JPY pair relative to other crosses, which include the US dollar over a certain period of time. For details about the calculation’s variables, visit the appendix .

Let us look at Table 1, which reflects the strength of the US dollar against a number of currencies. EUR/USD registered a prominent high on May 8th 2014 at 1.3993, respectively this has been a prominent low for the US dollar against the euro. In the case with EUR/USD we inverted the result, so that it represents the change from the US dollar’s point of view (which means that the figure would actually represent the USD/EUR’s movement). The same is valid for GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD. For each pair in the table we used the low price on May 8th and the closing price on December 31st. The US dollar gained the most against the Russian ruble, showed almost no change against its Hong Kong counterpart and lost ground against the Chinese yuan only.

On the basis of results in Table 1, we move on to rank each of the 22 currencies. As can be seen from Table 1.1, the Chinese yuan has been the strongest currency, followed by the US dollar, the euro has been ranked 14th, the Japanese yen 17th, while the ruble has been the worst performer among this particular list of currencies. The euro has lost 13.521% against the US dollar, the Japanese yen has plunged 18.005%, while the ruble has depreciated 70.913% during the examined period.

Correlations to other pairs

The term “correlation” refers to the connection between two assets and how they move in relation to each other. As a key component of advanced portfolio management, correlation is crucial for achieving maximized risk-adjusted return. Ranging between -1 and +1, a correlation close to the upper limit means that the two currencies are moving in almost perfect consonance, allowing for almost no diversification, and vice versa. A correlation of 0, which in the world of finance practically does not exist, means that movement of the two assets is completely random.

Below you can see two tables, which present those currency pairs that demonstrate the strongest positive correlations relative to USD/JPY and those crosses, showing the strongest negative correlations. The statistics are derived from daily market data, encompassing 300 periods (trading days), or approximately the whole year 2014.

The heavily traded currencies

The Japan yen is known for yielding a very low interest rate because of its slow domestic growth. With these consistently low interest rates, it made the yen a popular for the carry trade. Traders have borrowed the yen at next to no cost and used it to invest in other higher yielding currencies around the world, pocketing the rate differentials in the process.

Following over 40 years of incredible economic growth of this country, it has become the second largest growth in economy next to US. It has become the most heavily traded monetary unit in Asia. And Japanese yen is the third after the US dollar and the Euro. It is amongst the stronger and more stable in the market. While US dollar is globally acknowledged which almost 90% transactions happening across the globe in all markets had USD as one of the currencies.

For these reasons, the US dollar/Japanese yen pair is heavily traded in the market. USD/JPY is a smooth moving and is ideal for beginners in trading. It tends to move up and down in nice easy to follow trends. Although it can be one of the slowest moving pairs it is one of the safest ones. It will also have a high order flow which may also give binary options traders, an advantage.

This is a popular currency that has a lower than normal spread, just like the EUR/USD. The movement of this pair is more regulated when compared to other pairs. In general, because of the smooth trending and good profitability the USD/JPY remains one of the most popular currencies. It is definitely an easy pair to barter with in any economic environment. The traders have the opportunity to earn profit in rising as well as falling markets.

Trends that could affect the USD/JPY pair

USD/JPY pair has been influenced by the trend of the carry trade. Exchange rates in US are managed and controlled with the assistance of the Federal Reserve have for several years remained high compared to the Japanese rates.

Japanese yen is sold higher to buy the American dollar which was working out to be more profitable plan. The practice most recommended for this pair is either day trading or swing trading. This pair tends to have a positive correlation with the USD/CHF and USD/CAD pairs because they all use the US dollar as the base.

Traders should also remember that it is much better to start on small amounts and using stop-loss orders so that your first trade wont be the last. Once you are ready, sign-up for an account to start trading currency.

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USD/JPY and EUR/GBP Strategies

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Ryan Littlestone, Director and Trading analyst for ForexLive, joined Zak Mir and James Hughes on the Tip TV Finance Show to discuss trading strategy, focusing on the USD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

BoE meeting on Thursday. won’t see any action, but stronger wage numbers show good UK domestic performance, despite weak service PMI

UK housing facing stamp duty, can’t raise rates if house prices stay so low.

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Daily routines for swing forex trading

Daily routines for swing forex tradingDaily Routines for Swing Forex Trading

One of the ways that you can trade the forex market is through swing forex trading. If you are looking at this type of trading you need to consider what you will have to do on a daily basis. There are a number of steps in the routine of swing traders that you have to be aware of. When you go through all of these steps every day you can increase the likelihood of profitable forex trading.

Before Forex Trading Starts

There are a number of steps that have to be completed before you actively start your daily forex trading:

Getting an overview of the market – the first step is to catch up on all the news and developments that have taken place while you were away from the market. There are three points that you should focus on and they are the market sentiment, the market conditions and the forex news.

Finding potential trades – the next step in your pre-trading routine is to look for potential trades. These trades are generally found using a fundamental catalyst and refined through the use of a technical indicator which tells you the entry and exit points. The way that you determine what a potential trade is will vary depending on your trading system.

Creating a watch list – the third task you need to complete is creating a watch list of all the currency pairs that could give you a potential trade.

During Trading Hours

During your trading hours you actually have fewer tasks than before you forex trading hours. In the time before you start trading you are completing the bulk of your trading work. During your trading hours you need to monitor the potential trades on your watch list. If the indicators come about then you should enter the trade. However, if the indicators do not come about then you should not enter the trade and strike the position from your watch list.

During these hours you also have to watch for your exit indicators. While many people find that entering a swing trade is more art than science the exiting of a trade must be purely science. Once your trade has reached the point where you should exit you must exit.

With swing trading you will have open positions that were started on a different day. With these trades you have to look for the exit points during the trading hours.

After Your Trading Hours

When the hours that you have designated to trading are over there are some steps that you have to take. Some traders think that when their trading hours are over they can simply leave their trading until the next day. This is not true because the after-hours steps in your routine are very important.

The most important step you need to complete during this time is a performance review. This review looks at the trades you have placed and whether you have placed them according to your trading system. At this point you should record all your information for your end of day totals. When you do this you can determine if there is anything in your strategy that requires improvement.

Online Daily routines for swing forex trading

Forex brokers london

Forex brokers londonThe Exchange accepts no responsibility for the content of the website you are now accessing or for any reliance placed by you or any person on the information contained on it.

By allowing this link the Exchange does not intend in any country, directly or indirectly, to solicit business or offer any securities to any person.

You will be redirected in five seconds.

You are accessing the London Stock Exchange Annual Report Service powered by PrecisionIR.

The Exchange accepts no responsibility for the content of the reports you are now accessing or for any reliance placed by you or any person on the information contained therein.

By allowing this link the Exchange does not intend in any country, directly or indirectly, to solicit business or offer any securities to any person.

The London Forex Open strategy is a complete trading system for the currency markets. It contains everything you need to get up and running straight away.

Once you have downloaded the system and set it up you will then be ready to start trading in just 10 minutes per day. No subjectivity and no second guessing is required!

Each morning you check to see if a trade has been signaled prior to the market open. If it has you then simply place the suggested orders in your own trading account using the levels provided.

You receive everything you need to start trading, including:-

Configurable MetaTrader 4 Indicator

Asian Market Range Highlighter

Illustrated Setup and system guide

Full GBP/USD strategy settings

Free Email Support

While we are confident in the long term potential of this strategy we also extend the promise to provide free of charge updates to all of our customers. This gives you a guarantee that you will always have the latest software should we make any changes or adjustments to our indicators in the future. We have traded this system each day since we first launched in 2009 and we continue to publish our live results on this website. We are always on hannd answer any queries that you may have!

London Capital Group Video Review

Established in 1996, London Capital Group (LCG) is an online forex and CFDs broker that is wholly owned by London Capital Group Holdings Plc (LCGH Plc). The broker is based in the UK and is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Apart from being listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), the group is also an established member of the AIM market. Not only a highly efficient broker, LCG is also well known among traders for its competitive spreads.

Trading Platform

For access to the markets, LCG uses the highly popular MetaTrader 4 (MT4) trading platform. This platform is the platform of choice for most retail traders as it provides them with the ability to not only trade the currency market but also the stock indices and commodity markets. In addition, traders have at the tip of their fingertips a comprehensive technical analysis package that is built into the MT4 trading platform. However, most important of all, the MT4 platform is able to provide traders with a stable and secure trading environment. In addition to being an extremity robust platform, the MT4 platform is also mobile capable through the installation of a trading app that is available on Apple’s app store and Google play store.

Key features

Some of the key features of the MT4 platform include being able to automate the trading process with the use of expert advisors (EAs), manage trading accounts in different base currencies, full history database management with import and export facility. Finally, trades also have the option to display their trading interface in multiple languages.

Trading Accounts

LCG only offer one type of trading account known as “deposit account” to their traders. This means no deposit of funds is required until the trader is ready to start trading. The trading account is offered in 3 types of base currency which are Euro, US dollar and Pound Sterling. As for the minimum deposit requirement, this will depend on the products which the trader is interested to trade in.

Commission Spreads

The commission and spreads which are payable depend on the type of products that the trader opts to trade. With Forex, the spreads starts from as low as $0.3 per 100K (EUR. USD). In addition to the low spreads, there is a small commission payable starting from $2.50 per 100K each way. Let’s say you traded on a 10K lot for the EUR/USD pair. The total transaction cost will be calculated as such:

$0.30 (spread) + $0.50 (Round turn commission) = $0.80

Customer Support

As for customer support, traders can reach the support team through email or the telephone. Unfortunately, live chat support is not available. The support service is also limited to 5 days a week from Monday to Friday from 8am to 7pm (UK time).


In terms of LCG’s reliability, they have long established a solid reputation among institutional and professional traders. It is only in recent years that they started to gain a following among retail traders when LCG decided to expand their market reach to the small time retail segment of the trading community. The fact that LCG is FCA regulated means traders at LCG enjoy an additional layer of protection since their broker is required to abide by the legal requirements as laid down by the FCA.

FCA Regulated

Reputable and Reliable Broker

Robust and Efficient MT4 Platform

STP/ECN Broker

Ultra Tight Spreads

Professional Expert Support

No live Chat Support

Support Services only available 5 days a week

Since its establishment in 1996, LCG has undergone several transformations. The latest transformation occurred in late 2014 with a ?17 million capital injection by its CEO Charles-Henri Sabet. The move has been seen by the industry as an attempt to revitalize an established but flagging name by taking a new direction through an added focus on retail traders rather than solely on institutional and private traders.

LCG Review

LCG MT is a trading name of London Capital Group Ltd (LCG), an AIM-listed and FCA regulated organization and one of the UKs leading financial services companies specializing in online trading services. LCG was founded in 2003 and is located in London.

There is one standard account at LCG which requires no minimum deposit. There is also a free 30-day demo account available for beginner traders. LCG does not accept U. S. clients.

LCG offers a wide range of regulated and unregulated trading solutions for Retail and Professional customers. Retail customers can trade hundreds of global markets including equities, indices and FX using exceptionally low cost CFDs.

Forex traders place their trades through LCG FX, which seems to be a subsidiary of London Capital and is an established and respected Forex broker offering full access to all the ECN multi bank platforms including Currenex. It offers one of the lowest spreads and commissions in the industry. The commissions are based on instrument and trade size, and are charged in the currency denomination of the trading account. The commission schedule is listed separately for dollars, Sterling and Euros.

The price for each different trading asset comes up on a list by clicking on the pricing tab at the top of the page.

Educational material can be found at capitalspreads, which offers webinars, videos, ebooks, trading tools and advanced charting. Market analysis is also provided here by leading investment research provider Trading Central covering equity, index, fixed-income, forex and commodity markets.

The LCG trading glossary is well detailed and informative.


All major debit and credit cards except American Express can be used for depositing funds into an account. Funds can also be transferred securely online or by telephone using a debit or credit card. Bank transfers and checks are also accepted.

Withdrawals are made by phone or email.

Bonuses were offered on the other group websites and not through the Londoncapitalgroup site. Some of the bonuses offered on the Capital Spreads site include a deposit bonus of $500 or more within 60 days of opening an account and the placing of 10 opening non-equity trades within 30 days of the deposit brings a $100 bonus.

New clients who deposit between $1,000 and $50,000 can receive a bonus of up to £5,000. And through their loyalty rebate scheme, Capital Spreads will lower the cost of your trading by giving a rebate of up to 12.5% on monthly trading costs.

The same deposit bonuses are offered through LCG Fx.


LCG prides itself on developing and maintaining partnerships with third parties. They were the very first financial spread betting organization to provide white label solutions of this type to reputable brands.

They have several White Label products that offer partners a low cost route to market without the need for investment in technology and infrastructure. Clients then have access to over 3,000 global financial instruments including equities, indices, currencies and commodities and LCG manages all aspects of the service, paying an ongoing commission to partners. LCG accept clients from most jurisdictions around the world.

When doing this LCG review, the company was offering traders affiliate programs for trading products (spread betting, CFDs, Forex and MetaTrader) and were paying an ongoing commission based on the activity undertaken by the clients introduced to them by another trader.

LCG has won many awards over the last years including Best Mobile Trading Platform at Money AM for 2013 and 2012 and best CFD Provider of the Year by Financial Times/Investors Chronicle for 2011.

In addition, in the past surveys conducted by Investment Trends, LCG has been ranked as the second biggest spread betting and CFD provider in the UK.

Customer Support

Customer support is available at LCG through telephone and email.

They are open for trading from Sunday 24:00 until Friday 22:00, UK time.

The MQL4munity under the Help menu in MT4 is a handy go-to resource. Its used to discuss strategies, publish articles and share codes. Traders can also ask questions in the forum, or mix with MT4 community members and share information.

Online Forex brokers london

Goodwill industries of the southern piedmont

Goodwill industries of the southern piedmontConstruction Skills Training

Goodwill’s six-week training program, in partnership with Central Piedmont Community College, assists individuals in quickly developing the basic knowledge and skills necessary to obtain an entry level position or better in the construction industry.

The classes at Goodwill, taught by National Center for Construction Education and Research (NCCER) certified instructors, also provide OSHA-10 safety cards.

The program provides Green Job training and hands-on training in construction math, blueprint reading and the use of power tools and hand tools. The class is also eligible to receive forklift training and certification.

All students receive employability skills training such as resume development, interview skills, communicating effectively and work ethics.

Classes run Monday through Friday from 8:30 a. m. until 4:30 p. m.

For more information, please call 704-372-3434.

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Indiabulls online trading

Indiabulls online tradingIndiabulls Online Trading

Considering Indiabulls Online Trading?

Find the information you need here about Indiabulls online trading in Roper NC or nearby. You don't have to go far to build a lucrative stocks portfolio. In fact, Indiabulls online trading makes it easy and affordable to take care of all your trading on the web. Based in India, the company has grown to serve investors worldwide and provides a number of resources to help beginners and savvy investors alike with their trading needs.

Start an account and begin building your portfolio now easily with Indiabulls online trading, whether you live in North Carolina or some other part of the world. An online portfolio enables you to track and compare securities (even those you don't own), add stocks to your account, add/edit entries and more. Get market insight at the Indiabulls online trading website with sections like Indices Snapshot, Stock Watch, World Indices and Indian Indices. Take advantage of equity analysis, IPO online, signature accounts, currency derivatives and more.

It's not just a resource to invest your money. it's a place to build a lucrative investor's portfolio for long term trading success. Check here often for the resources you need about Indiabulls online trading in Roper NC. Get started with mutual funds or other stock trading online with ease, knowing you are using a trusted company that has been around a while.

Take a moment to explore all that Indiabulls online trading has to offer. Even if you're brand new to online stock trading, this is a great company to start on your journey of investing. And doing so online gives you easy access to all you need without having to phone or visit a broker's office each time. Explore your options with Indiabulls online trading today and realize the many benefits of long term investing.

Online Indiabulls online trading

Order flow trading

Order flow tradingOrder Flow Trading

Order Flow Trading

I've found a few months ago some interesting discussions about a trading method called Order Flow trading and I'm wondering if anyone else on the forum here is applying something similar? I've learnt most about it from Daemon Goldsmith's book Order Flow Trading, research papers about market microstructure and trading forums.

I'm relatively new to this, but from what I've understood, the primary goal is predicting future order flow in the markets by reading sentiment and understanding what other market participants do. I'm now applying the basic concepts I've got from the book, it is about hunting stops of the traders that are on the wrong side of the markets - trading against sentiment. An example would be hunting the sell stops of traders that are long AUD/USD despite negative fundamentals/sentiment.

I've had great results so far, but I haven't spent enough time yet applying the method and I will probably need to test out other strategies too. But it seems much better than technical analysis because we can understand much clearer why certain things occur in the markets. It seems price moves are not that random as I've thought previously.

So if there is anyone a bit more experienced in applying the method - please share your insights! I think we can build a great thread with an interesting discussion.

Online Order flow trading

Trading strategy with the10and20ema

Trading strategy with the10and20emaTrading strategy with the 10 and 20 ema

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How is the parabolic sar used in trading

How is the parabolic sar used in tradingHow is the Parabolic SAR used in trading?

The parabolic SAR is a popular indicator that is mainly used by traders to determine the future short-term momentum of a given asset. The indicator was developed by the famous technician known as Welles Wilder and can also easily be applied to a trading strategy, enabling a trader to determine where stop orders should be placed. The calculation of this indicator is rather complex and goes beyond the scope of how it is practically used in trading.

One of the most interesting aspects of this indicator is that it assumes that a trader is fully invested in a position at any point in time. For this reason, it is of specific interest to those who develop trading systems and traders who wish to always have money at work in the market.

The parabolic SAR indicator is graphically shown on the chart of an asset as a series of dots placed either above or below the price (depending on the asset's momentum). A small dot is placed below the price when the trend of the asset is upward, while a dot is placed above the price when the trend is downward. As you can see from the chart below, transaction signals are generated when the position of the dots reverses direction and is placed on the opposite side of the price as it was earlier.

As you can see from the right side of the chart, using this indicator by itself can often lead to entering/exiting a position prematurely. Many traders will choose to place their stop loss orders at the SAR value because a move beyond this will signal a reversal, causing the trader to anticipate a move in the opposite direction.

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Eod forex trading strategies-practice binary options

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Trading breakouts

Trading breakoutsTrading Breakouts

November 3, 2008 at 7:05 pm


Excellent material on trading the break-out. However, isnt this diametric to your philosophy on SR trading? I see SR as being mutually exclusive to a break-out approach. The closest I can reconcile the two strategies as being complementary is to use the SR for identifying a pull-back opportunity for entering your position. The fundamental problem is that its often difficult to ascertain between a temporary pull-back and a trend reversal, especially if your sl is 50 75 pips.

November 4, 2008 at 6:57 pm


Thanks for the feedback, Steve. Ill certainly try to study the charts in the examples section. However, upon cursory review of the charts in that section, it seems VERY difficult to predict a fade or break-out at a support/resistance level. I think that I understand your point about multiple (3 or more) bounces off a support or resistance level being a good indication of a pending break-out. The big challenge is that there are so many break-out that occur during the 1st or 2nd encounter with a sr level.

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What is the best stock stop loss strategy for you

What is the best stock stop loss strategy for youWhat Is The Best Stock Stop Loss Strategy For You?

Using a stock stop loss strategy to calculate a trailing stop loss? (Part 2)

The key to the trailing stop loss is that you need to have a good stock stop loss strategy and continually make adjustments to make sure that the stop is moved in your favor. Of course, the way in which a trailing stop loss is calculated is very similar to the way in which we calculated our initial stop loss. The only difference in this stock stop loss strategy is that rather than calculating our trailing stop loss from the entry price, we calculate our stop loss from the highest price since entry.

The stock stop loss strategy that you use can vary dramatically, however if we use the ATR method that we used to calculate our initial stop as our trailing stop loss, weВ’ll have the ability to lock in the profit as the share price increases.

An example of a good stock stop loss strategy, if we bought a share at one dollar, and our initial stop is set at 90 cents, if our initial stop is equal to our trailing stop, our trailing stop would lso have a value of 90 cents. If after the first day, the share price moves in our favor and moves to $1.10, the next step would be to grab the value of the ATR and subtract two times this from our highest price of $1.10.

For the ease of this example, letВ’s say that our stop size hasnВ’t changed, so our stop is still ten cents wide in this stock stop loss strategy. When we calculate our trailing stop loss, our new trailing stop loss would be set at one dollar. So, letВ’s take a stock take. Take our initial stop was at 90 cents, our trailing stop loss is now a dollar, and our share price is at 1.10. Since our trailing stop loss is higher than our initial stop, the initial stop becomes obsolete, and our trailing stop loss now becomes our active exit.

Now, my question for the astute listener is to ask, В“How much profit have we made on this trade? В” The share price is at 1.10 and we entered at one dollar. If you thought, В“No, we havenВ’t made any moneyВ”, then youВ’d be right on track because remember our stock stop loss strategy gives the share price a little bit of room to move.

WeВ’re not going to exit this position until the share price reverts to one dollar. So, hereВ’s an important point to note on this particular stock stop loss strategy, when valuing any open position, always value that position based on its stop loss value because if we were to exit this share, we would wait until that price point was breached.

LetВ’s go back to the example of superior stock stop loss strategy. Now, what happens if the share price begins to fall? LetВ’s say that the share price falls from 1.10 down to 1.05. What does our trailing stop loss do? Would it move down also? HereВ’s another important point to note. A stop loss will never ever move down. A trailing stop loss can only ever move up. In this way, weВ’ll lock in profit and weВ’ll also get out of shares once they start to turn. A trailing stop loss is always calculated from the highest price since entry, so the highest price is still 1.10.

ItВ’s not until the share price makes a new high since entry that the trailing stop loss would begin to move in our favor again for this particular stock stop loss strategy. If weВ’re using the ATR method, thereВ’s another way for our trailing stop to move up. This alternative method would occur when the volatility of a stock begins to shrink. So, if a share price begins to move sideways, the affect would be that the ATR value would begin to drop off. This would also obviously mean that the trailing stop would begin to move up as the share price came less volatile in this particular stock stop loss strategy.

The best way to get a grasp on this stock stop loss strategy is to print out a chart with ATR value along the bottom, then on a chart, identify the point where you would have received an entry signal, then on the chart mark your initial stop loss and also your trailing stop loss, as the trade progresses make sure that you revalue the value of your stop so you can begin to get a feel for the way this method of calculating a stop loss works.

Also, in this type of testing, you may wish to test the effects of this stock stop loss strategy having a wider trailing stop loss then an initial stop. This is one of those finesse points that you could add to your stock stop loss strategy that may squeeze a little bit more profitability out of it. For example, what you might look at doing is setting a two ATR stop loss for your initial stop, whereas you might set your trailing stop loss as three ATR.

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Trading strategies using technical analysis price

Trading strategies using technical analysis priceTrading strategies using technical analysis price 60 second binary option trading 60s

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Meet some of morgan stanley-s new london analysts

Meet some of morgan stanley-s new london analystsMeet some of Morgan Stanleys new London analysts

Morgan Stanley likes its juniors to come with teaching experience

What does it take to get an analyst job in an investment bank in London? Needless to say, it helps to have exceptional A Levels and academic achievements. It helps to have interned in banking almost before you could walk. And if you want to work for Morgan Stanley particularly. you will also need to have, integrity, intellectual curiosity and the desire to work in a collegiate atmosphere.

So who are the intellectually curious, collegial, decent people that Morgan Stanleys hired onto its analyst programme in London? The U. S. bank has just registered some of its 2014 analyst class with the UKs Financial Conduct Authority. If you want to work for Morgan Stanley, this is the kind of person it hires.

1. David Israelsson

David Israelsson just joined Morgan Stanley as an analyst in the markets division. He was a summer intern at the bank in 2013 and studied at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, where he completed both a Bachelors in Management Engineering and Financial Mathematics and a Masters in Industrial Engineering and Management. He speaks fluent French, taught finance for five months to students in Stockholm, and spent some time studying in Hong Kong. Israelsson also spent more than two years working as a sales agent and equity trading support specialist at Nordea before he went to university.

2. Vandit Shah

In truth, Vandit Shah isnt an entirely new analyst at Morgan Stanley he joined the banks 2013 analyst class in New York and has just transferred to London as a currencies and emerging markets strategist. As usual, Shah was a summer analyst at Morgan Stanley in the year before he turned up full time (ie. in 2012). He studied at a top-name school (Wharton). And like Israelsson he also taught finance himself while he was there. Also like Israelsson, he studied abroad for a few semesters (in his case at Oxford). And again like Israelsson, he had experience of working for different banks (he also interned at Citi and HSBC).

3. Eoin Callaghan

Eoin Callaghan joined Morgan Stanleys markets business in July after interning in the area in summer 2013. A graduate of University College Dublin (BSc Economics and Finance) and Imperial College London (MSc Risk Management and Financial Engineering), Callagan achieved a straight A in all his written exams at Imperial and was a scholar while he was in Dublin. He was also co-head of the Irish Entrepreneurship forum and (like Shah and Israelsson), spent some time teaching (financial mathematics to secondary school students).

4. Frederik Hendriksen

Frederik Hendriksen joined Morgan Stanleys 2014 analyst class in equity sales trading. He too was a summer analyst at Morgan Stanley in 2013. He too studied at a top school (London School of Economics in 2010). He too also studied at other international institutions (Copenhagen Business School, University of Richmond). But most importantly, hes an entrepreneur. Before joining Morgan Stanley, Hendrikson spent four months as entrepreneur in residence at Groupon, and 10 months as business development manager at Shopbox. He also spent four months as a sales person for a leasing company. If you want to work in sales trading, it seems that all sales-related experience helps.

5. Aidean Kingston

Aidean has a first class degree in economics and finance from University College Dublin and joined Morgan Stanley as an analyst on the programme sales trading desk. As ever, he was an intern at the bank in summer 2013. Like Hendriksen and like Callagan, Kingston was a player in the entrepreneurs society at university (specifically, he was part of the Irish Entrepreneurship Forum and head of investors at the UCD Investors and Entrepreneurs Society). He has a heap of academic scholarships and awards and was a member of the Junior Irish Kickboxing team back in 2010

6. Hillary Singer

Hillary Singer is that seemingly rare thing across all banks analyst classes a woman! Even more unusually, she studied in the U. S..

More typically, Singer studied at a top university (Harvard). She studied mathematics and economics. And she spent two years as a teaching fellow in Harvards Mathematics department. She has a welter of awards for academic excellence and shes also interned in risk management at the Chilton Investment Company. Shes joining Morgan Stanley as an analyst in fixed income sales.

In conclusion, it seems that Morgan Stanley likes to hire:

People whove been summer interns

People whove studied abroad or have some experience outside their home country

People whove shown an interest in entrepreneurialism

People whove spent time teaching others

People who arent UK nationals (at least, it seems none of those in the list above are).

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