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Fermat-s last spreadsheet

Fermat-s last spreadsheetFacts, rules of thumb, and intuition for swap spreads

The N-year swap spread is defined as:

N-yr swap spread := N-yr swap rate N-yr government bond yield.

Since most quants spend much less time on the bond market than on the swaps market, they often dont come to appreciate the central importance of the swap spread. Here is an unordered list of why the swap spread is important:

it is the unhedgeable part left over after you hedge a bond portfolio with swaps,

it is a value measure of whether investors should buy their exposure with swaps or bonds,

it makes up one of the standard collection of arbitrage strategies in the fixed income space,

it moves a lot (sometimes up, sometimes down) in times of market stress.

This post collects a few of my personal notes on the swap spread, including my tricks for remembering the rules-of-thumb, and gives links to well-written articles across the web.

Basic terminology

In various strategy reports you may read phrases like:

the swap spread tightens when the curve steepens,

the spread is cheap.

The cheap comment is easiest to understand: the value of the spread is low relative to its average (and note that this can also mean that the spread is negative).

The terms tighten or widen are actually not too difficult either: tightening generally means that the number (which is probably a yield spread in most cases) is getting smaller, and widening the opposite.

Lets summarize:

swap spread is a low/er number = spread is cheap or spread has tightened,

swap spread is a high/er number = spread is expensive or spread has widened.

[As I have written previously, see here. you will massively benefit from learning how to translate every trading statement into an asset form so that you can use terms like buy or sell, cheap or expensive, etc.]

Buy/sell intuition

In the next section we discuss rules of thumb for the swap spread, so you had better get comfortable with knowing which positions are long or short the spread.

If you think that the swap spread is cheap what trades do you need to do in order to buy it?

buy the swap, and

buy the bond.

which just means you buy the bond and pay fixed in the swap. Have a think about it, youll see its right.

Another way to say this is to say that:

buying the spread = buying the hedged bond .

In summary we have the useful facts that you need to remember:

long the spread = long bonds ,

short the spread = short bonds ,

and consequently we should get used to things like:

spread is cheap = govvies are cheap relative to swaps,

spread is tightening = govvies are getting cheaper.

As a follow on to this we see that the swap spread will tighten either because bonds are cheapening or because swaps are getting less expensive (so more sellers, which means more people receiving ). Thats worth writing down:

spread tightens = bonds cheapening or more receiving in swaps,

spread widens = bonds rallying or more paying in swaps.

Armed with these, you will find the next section easier to understand.

Rules of thumb (ROTs) and Facts for the swap spread

ROT 1 . spreads are usually positive.

This is because the swap rate reflects the borrowing costs for banks and financial institutions whilst the government bond yield is the cost of borrowing for governments — and since governments are generally considered to be a safer credit than banks, their cost of borrowing is smaller and so the spread is positive.

Fact 2 . spreads have been negative.

There are huge debates about why spreads have been able to go negative, but a couple of reasons offered are:

credit risk fears for sovereigns,

corporate hedging (receiving fixed).

ROT 3 . spreads tighten when the curve steepens.

The web-wide explanation for this is that when the curve steepens it becomes more attractive to corporates to hedge their fixed-rate debt (ie bonds that they issued which have a fixed coupon) by receiving fixed in a swap. This is simply because in such a hedge swap they would be paying low libors and receiving a relatively high coupon.

In my view you can alternatively say: swap rates are high relative to the libors, so sell the swap rate — which means receive.

ROT 4 . swap spreads reflect the Libor repo spread.

It is an academic fact that if we know exactly how the libor-repo spread would be for the next 10 years then the 10 year swap spread would be exactly determined . This is because you could set up the following trades:

buy the 10-year govvie,

finance this through repo,

pay fixed in the 10-year swap to receive libor,

and you would be left receiving (Libor-repo) and paying (Swap Bond yield). Actually this is quite academic as it doesnt account for haircuts on the repo financing nor for the fact that the bond yield will likely not be the same as the coupon on the bond. Nonetheless this rule of thumbs stands strong.

ROT 5 . swap spreads tighten when Goverments increase issuance (or there is an expectation they will).

If the Government issues more bonds then there will be a higher supply and so we would expect the bonds to cheapen, just by the usual supply-demand rules. And when bonds cheapen their yield increases so the spread tightens.

Ways to remember how the swap spread moves

The above rules of thumb reflect the fact that there are a number of different reasons why swap spreads may move: some due to opportunities in rates (eg more receivers in swaps), some due to credit concerns.

As an effort to make this more understandable for myself, I have come up with the following summary which gives me a good handle for understanding the contrasting forces that move the spreads.

Factor 1: ss widen when paying is popular

This is the thought process I go through to make this clear to myself:

ss widens = swap rates go up = swap rates are rallying = profit by paying fixed in swaps.

This factor explains the spreads tighten with a steep curve, and may also explain why Japan suffers with negative spreads (curve is steep so receiving is the obvious trade).

When the swap spreads become the focus of credit concerns it is best to interpret swaps and bond yields as borrowing rates . Swap rates reflect the borrowing costs of banks, so if there are worries about banks then their borrowing costs will go up:

Alternatively,

government bond prices will go down so you should sell the spread.

Some links to other reading

Click here for an article that discusses the factors that could affect the dollar swap spread.

Click here for an SSRN article that does something similar for JPY rates.

Click here for an interesting academic article (by Liu and Longstaff) which shows that the swap spread trade does not offer an arbitrage: theres positive carry yes, but when markets get stressed you can lose your shirt. In concise terms, the arbitrage trade says that the swap spread reflects the credit risk of banks vs governments, and is taking a bet that credit risk for banks will not explode over that for governments by selling the spread (ie short treasuries and receive in swaps).

Click here for another article by Longstaff and others which looks at the swap spread as a measure of credit risk in the markets.

Click here for a blog post which claims that negative swap spreads may not be the most surprising thing on earth.

Click here to see another post of mine which discusses a quant trading model built by Paul Tooter that is designed to give buy or sell signals on the 10-year USD swap spreads.

Forex traders leads

Forex traders leadsForex Traders Leads

Forex Traders Leads : would our list of Forex traders includes their first and last names and telephone numbers e-mail addresses website opt in information and much more. This list was extremely expensive to come by and includes a downloadable e-mail list of Forex stock traders. Marketing to a list of Forex traders just got easier with our brand-new Forex traders e-mail list for sale. Includes thousands of records that contain vital data and information regarding recently signed up Forex currency exchange traders e-mail addresses. A current list of currency exchange traders and Forex traders are now available for immediate download in our members only area. We also have other investor lists available such as our CBS Market Watch Investor List, Our Day Trading Stock Investor List and our High Net worth Investor Lists as Well.

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Welcome to our artist trading card(atc)community forums!our focus is on friendly atc and mail art

Welcome to our artist trading card(atc)community forums!our focus is on friendly atc and mail artWelcome to our Artist Trading Card (ATC) community forums! Our focus is on friendly ATC and mail art trading and swapping in a relaxed and welcoming atmosphere. Everyone is welcome here. All mediums are welcome too--stamping, painting, drawing, collage, mixed media, fabric, clay--you name it, we do it! And we don't just trade ATCs; there is a lot going on here. This includes chunky books, inchies, rinchines, twinchies, charms, art journals, altered art, Rolodex and rolo trading, and much more. We also have a gallery and trader rating system to facilitate trading between members and keep our community growing. We hope that you will join our family of art lovers and join us in trading art!

Congratulations to: joboflores1 who won the September ATC Contest. The winning card is shown above.

Contests at Atcsforall

Monthly ATC Contest!

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Directions and information on the contests can be found in the Monthly Contest Forum.

ATCs are voted on by the members, and the winner scores a prize packet and goody bag packed to the brim with art-related goods and empherma.

Forex buy

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This page is used to test the proper operation of the Apache HTTP server after it has been installed. If you can read this page it means that the Apache HTTP server installed at this site is working properly.

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If you are the website administrator:

You may now add content to the directory /var/www/html/ . Note that until you do so, people visiting your website will see this page and not your content. To prevent this page from ever being used, follow the instructions in the file /etc/httpd/conf. d/welcome. conf .

You are free to use the images below on Apache and CentOS Linux powered HTTP servers. Thanks for using Apache and CentOS!

Low drawdown options trading strategies

Low drawdown options trading strategiesLow Drawdown Options Trading Strategies

sjoptions presents option trading strategy concepts which can protect a portfolio during a highly volatile market. San Jose Options provides option mentoring to students via internet. We teach advanced option strategies including strategies that are not being taught by other schools. [ go to Youtube ]

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Trading Options - PCLN Earnings Play

Option Trading Over Earnings - PCLN sjoptions This is a sample options trade from our options mentoring program. We call this the Paper Airplane. [ go to Youtube ]

DTI Option Club Trade

Tom Busby's Day Trading Institute (dtitrader) analytical market software presented in conjuntion with educational overview of e-mini futures and the correlation with the cash stock market. Call us with questions at 1-800-745-7444 or e-mail us at dtidtitrader. Free: Download the first chapter of Tom's first book, "Winning the Day Trading Game" here: dtitrader/marketing/chapter1.php [ go to Youtube ]

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sjoptions Listen to candid conversations about our options mentoring program. This clip is taken from a live personal training session during our options trading course. [ go to Youtube ]

Credit Spread vs Our Method of Options Trading

sjoptions presents Credit Spreads vs San Jose Options' methods. Here are two ways to manage a directional play, but see which is safer and which can yield more. [ go to Youtube ]

Part 2 - DTI Option Trading Presentation by Tom Busby

Tom Busby's Day Trading Institute (dtitrader) analytical market software presented in conjuntion with educational overview of e-mini futures and the correlation with the cash stock market. Call us with questions at 1-800-745-7444 or e-mail us at dtidtitrader. Free: Download the first chapter of Tom's first book, "Winning the Day Trading Game" here: dtitrader/marketing/chapter1.php [ go to Youtube ]

Part 3 - DTI Option Trading Presentation by Tom Busby

Tom Busby's Day Trading Institute (dtitrader) analytical market software presented in conjuntion with educational overview of e-mini futures and the correlation with the cash stock market. Call us with questions at 1-800-745-7444 or e-mail us at dtidtitrader. Free: Download the first chapter of Tom's first book, "Winning the Day Trading Game" here: dtitrader/marketing/chapter1.php [ go to Youtube ]

Part 1 - DTI Option Trading Presentation by Tom Busby

Tom Busby's Day Trading Institute (dtitrader) analytical market software presented in conjuntion with educational overview of e-mini futures and the correlation with the cash stock market. Call us with questions at 1-800-745-7444 or e-mail us at dtidtitrader. Free: Download the first chapter of Tom's first book, "Winning the Day Trading Game" here: dtitrader/marketing/chapter1.php [ go to Youtube ]

12-3-08 - Part 3 DTI Trader Option Club Presentation

Best online stock trading company

Best online stock trading companyMB Trading

MB Trading is a direct access brokerage firm. Their software which is a proprietary order routing system known as MBTX allows investors to skip over the middleman and trade directly to NASDAQ, AMEX markets and NYSE. MB Trading claims that its software has saved their investors $17,096,624. I’m not sure if that is 100% accurate, but after researching their software I must say investors that have used it are very impress to say the least.

Opening an account with MB Trading isn’t a streamline process, such as with other online brokerage firms. Usually when it comes to the web, you’re able to do everything electronically. MB Trading is set up quite differently in this area. The application process involves a potential investor interested in trading with MB Trade to print, fill out and mail or fax in the completed application. I wish there was an option for emailing or just completing the application via their web portal. Don’t get me wrong, it isn’t a pain to fax or mail, but an electronic way of submitting the application would be better. When your application is received you’re sent a welcome email and funding instructions after 24 hours of the received date. To me this is bad business and I say that because people want immediate action, not a delay. If everything could be processed at the time a new account is opened that would make their service more accessible.

There are a number of things that I really like about MB Trading. They offer a low commission structure at $4.95 a trade or $0.75 a share. They have award winning proprietary software. Investors don’t have to deal with the middleman to trade. They offer partner programs that connect investors to educational resources, the top charting programs and a host of trading tools in the industry. And the last thing I really like about MB Trading, investors receive live 24 hours customer service support.

If you’re into stocks, forex, futures or options, MB Trading offer investors access to do business in all four categories. To me this is the key to what makes MB Trading unique in the online stock trading business. I recommend their services even if the opening an account process isn’t the ideal approach. With their 24 hours live customer service, low commission structure and powerful proprietary software. They are by far one of the best online brokerage firms to date.

Binary options bullet

Binary options bulletTriggering winning binary options trades hourly and daily.

Why Binary Options Bullet?

This powerful software successfully predicts winning binary options trades within a 70-95% rate of probability. Depending on current market conditions the software will print on your chart the probability of winning the trade tell you when to call or put.

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How Can Binary Options Bullet Send You Winning Trades?

We have done everything we possibly can with this binary options software to make it as user friendly as possible. While the mechanics of the software are very technical, how we provide the signals to the user is very simple. We print the signal right onto your chart alongside alerts.

Binary Options Bullet on the Chart

T his is how the system looks on the MetaTrader chart. It shows you two options, the Long Term Daily Signals and the Short Term Signals. There are three charts open, the USDJPY, the EURJPY and the GOLD (XAUUSD in MT4) all on the H1 timeframe.

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Some sample alerts in the Experts Tab

H ere is a sample of trades. If you go to the Experts tab youll always be able to see the old signals. Here and on the chart we provide the probability of success of the trade, whether it is an hourly or daily signal and what currency pair that it is on.

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Training and development strategy

Training and development strategyTraining And Development Strategy

Hii, Predo

Its my pleasure to introduce myself

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Apperntice Act 1961

Its mandatory for every organisation to provide four man days of trainning to evry employee

Out of which 2 days can be of technical competency the remaining two of Self development

Training plan form template

Training plan form templateForms and Online Filings

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Note on Passwords

There has been some confusion regarding passwords. We are providing you on-line filing from two different systems.

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Tips for trading online

Tips for trading onlineTips for Trading Online

This is complilation of some common sense tips that will help to make your online trading experience much more enjoyable.

Always, always, ask for and check references.

It seems so simple and yet so few people actually do it. All it takes is a simple e-mail messages out to each of the references the person your trading with supplies. If the person you’re trading with is a member of MOTL. be sure to check out their references list on the site. This is THE MOST important thing to do when trading online. If you do nothing else, at least do this.

Save your e-mail messages.

The best thing to do is to create a folder with the e-mail program you use and store all your trade-related e-mail messages there. I keep hearing “I lost your address” from people I’ve just given my address to only a day ago. This will also help you out in the unfortunate event that you get ripped off, as it’s a almost impossible to track rippers down without detailed information such as an address.

If it’s too good to be true, it is.

This may seem like a tired phrase, but trust me, it’s true. If someone seems very eager to give you an incredibly good deal for your cards, be wary. A lot of problems in life can be avoided if you stop and take a moment to analyze your possible risk vs. your possible gain in a given situation. If you can’t risk losing your cards, find another person to trade with, which brings me to my next point.

There are lots of people to trade with.

Don’t feel pressured into a deal because you don’t think you’ll be able to trade your cards to anyone else. You will. The Internet is not your local card shop, there are millions of people on the Net and a couple thousand on this site alone. Don’t worry, other people will want your cards.

Don’t assume every card is in mint condition.

Always be sure to describe the conditions of the cards you’re trading and ask the person you’re trading with to do the same. You wouldn’t do a trade at a card shop or convention blindfolded, so don’t do it on the Net.

Communicate often.

Nothing upsets people more than to deal with someone who never contacts them, and nothing pleases them more than to deal with someone who does. If the person you’re trading with sends you an e-mail message, e-mail them back promptly. Make sure to send an e-mail message out when you send your cards and when you receive theirs.

Ask permission for references.

Don’t just assume that the person you just traded with wants you to use them as a reference. When you receive their cards, make sure you tell them whether or not they may use you as a reference. There’s nothing worse than having someone check on your references and having one of them respond negatively.

Don’t force people to send first.

If you have a well-established online reputation, you may ask that the person you’re trading with send first, but if you act arrogantly about it, they’ll probably just break off the trade. Don’t assume that since you belong to such-and-such organization, including this one, that it makes you better than everyone else, it doesn’t. Also, if the person you’re trading with does end up sending first, throw in some extra cards with what you send. It doesn’t have to be anything big, just maybe a couple uncommons to thank them for trusting you.

Be patient.

Sometimes the mail is fast, sometimes it’s slow. If the person you’re trading with is in another country, even Canada, expect the trade to take considerably longer. Don’t go crying “ripper!” if their cards didn’t arrive in a week, no one will listen to you. Also consider that some people also can’t afford to drop everything and go to the post office when your cards arrive. If you haven’t heard anything from the person you’re trading with a week after sending your cards, send them a polite e-mail messages asking if they got your cards, whether you received theirs or not. Remember, the cards you send are your responsibility until they reach the hands of the person you’re trading with, so make sure that they got to their destination.

Take steps to safely ship your cards.

Using a hard sleeve and a bubble mailer can go a long way to insuring that your cards get to their destination safely. The post office typically pays more attention to these type of packages, and they’ll actually honor the “Do Not Bend” markings. It only costs a dollar, on average, to send your cards like this. Look at it this way, the stamp you’d normally use + the price of a candy bar = great happiness for the person you’re trading with.

Things don’t get lost in the mail (at least in the U. S. ).

Face it, it just doesn’t happen anymore. You could label a package with just a name and a zip code and it would still probably get to it’s destination. If someone tries to give you the excuse that the cards got lost in the mail, they’re probably full of it, plus, they are still responsible for making sure you get your cards. If you think something may have been lost, go to your local post office and have them do a trace on your package. If you want to be absolutely sure that your cards get to their destination, send them by certified mail and the person you’re trading with will have to sign for them when they arrive.

Ripping someone off is mail fraud.

This is another reason to save your e-mail messages. Any documented deal in which you agreed to send a certain item in exchange for another by mail, is under the jurisdiction of laws pertaining to mail fraud. If you don’t believe me, read Title 18, Section 1341 of the US Code. Those found guilty of mail fraud can be fined and sent to jail for up to 5 years . Contact your local postmaster if you seriously believe you’ve been ripped off, and he or she will tell you what you can do.

Finally, most people are honest.

Although there are some rippers out there, online trading wouldn’t exist if most people weren’t honest. If you just use some common sense and try to follow these guidelines, you should have many successful trades.

© 2012 – 2014 Magic Online Trading League.

Free live intraday tips mcx lead

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